2021 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS:




Models getting bullish on a TC developing in 5 days.

UKMET which has been very conservative so far is also showing it:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.8N 108.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.06.2021 120 13.8N 108.0W 1006 21
0000UTC 08.06.2021 132 13.8N 109.5W 1004 24
1200UTC 08.06.2021 144 13.9N 111.1W 1007 20

12z EPS:

http://www.weathermodels.com

[Yellow Evan]

A little suspect of this.

[JW-_-]

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has a basin crosser in early June lol

00z Euro:

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by this weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS showing a long tracker and 2 GOT CAG systems.

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC only having CAG GOT action.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS and Euro continuing to show the 0/20 system. 12z Euro showing a deeper vort this run in the EPAC from the CAG.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS005, EP, E, , , , , 75, 2021, DB, O, 2021060300, 9999999999, , 005, , , , GENESIS, , EP752021

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by this weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves slowly westward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[JW-_-]

EC sees another chance for a ts.





GFS 18z was seeing it forming roughly around the 6th.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it drifts west-northwestward well off the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Rest of 18z GFS loaded.

[JW-_-]

00z GFS

[JW-_-]

Waiting to see what the next bom run does. In my neck of the woods, we regard it better than
the USA global model.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS still sticking with 2 systems, the 10/30 and the CAG system.

[Yellow Evan]

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week while it drifts west-northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC keeps the 10/40 weak and has the CAG a little sooner.

[JW-_-]

The big gun was on board for a ts on its 18z run.