2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

This is not in anyway an El Nino standing wave but it could be worse. CFS VP200 setup is looking decent for June/July activity if it verifies.


The sweet spot might be further away from Mexico this year.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala in a
few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while it drifts northwestward through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[JW-_-]

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS now showing 3 CAG systems.

[JW-_-]

https://postimg.cc/DmLH7zfh
Some interesting possibilities right there

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a few days. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it drifts northward through the end of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a few days. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development, and a tropical depression could
develop by the end of the week as the system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[JW-_-]

Maybe a binary interaction in the future forecast if the model verifies @ the timestamp.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC has development in less than 5 days:


It seems to be the only model that develops the 0/40 system.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly
northwestward or northward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. See products
from your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a couple of
hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador,
and Guatemala in a day or two. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week as the system drifts northwestward
or northward. Regardless of development, this system could produce
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
later this week and into the weekend. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS launched into 2 systems while the ECMWF just showing one 8-10 days from now. Both models been consistent with this for quite a few days.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402257856494190601




Will likely shift the activity eastward.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402257856494190601?s=20

Will likely shift the activity eastward.

Well It has very faulty information from the NASA model being factored in its overall forecast. The NASA model showing super La Nina is forcing the output to be very La Nina biased, affecting the entire global circulation and SST configuration.

Also there's still little evidence that we'll see a Modoki type La Nina. Nino 1+2 has been cool neutral for nearly 14 weeks straight while Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 have been above normal.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a couple of hundred
miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador, and
Guatemala by Thursday. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form
by the end of the week or over the weekend as the system drifts
generally northward. Regardless of development, this system could
produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern
Mexico later this week and into the weekend. See products from your
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[aspen]

Given the pathetic performance of 92E and the models like CFS leaning towards a cooler ENSO eventually developing, I don’t have high hopes for any potential EPac system within the next few weeks. Maybe when it gets closer to the heart of the season, we’ll finally see a system become a hurricane or even a major, but I doubt anything before the end of June.

[Kingarabian]

Given the pathetic performance of 92E and the models like CFS leaning towards a cooler ENSO eventually developing, I don’t have high hopes for any potential EPac system within the next few weeks. Maybe when it gets closer to the heart of the season, we’ll finally see a system become a hurricane or even a major, but I doubt anything before the end of June.

We could see some EPAC slop next week, hanging out off the coast of Mexico. The ones that look like they're developing but never do.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings back 92E, develops it, has basically dropped the 0/40, and then spawns the same system it's been showing for a while.

[Yellow Evan]