ATL: ELSA - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#101 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:56 am

Senobia wrote:What's in the steering pattern that the models are seeing right now that takes 97 so sharply N and E into FL?


Trof digs and weakens ridge opening the door for this to gain latitude and head north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#102 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:17 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Senobia wrote:What's in the steering pattern that the models are seeing right now that takes 97 so sharply N and E into FL?


Trof digs and weakens ridge opening the door for this to gain latitude and head north.


Usually that saves the CONUS, but every once in awhile they get too far W before that climo re-curve happens..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#103 Postby Cat5James » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:19 pm

HWRF stronger thru 48 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#104 Postby AubreyStorm » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:23 pm

Cat5James wrote:HWRF stronger thru 48 hours


And more North than previous run :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#105 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:29 pm

Image
St. Lucia could be looking at an @87 mph hurricane in 54-57 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#106 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:37 pm

Something to think about as well, the stronger this becomes, the more likely this could pull north and either graze the islands or completely disrupt its core as it landfalls in Hispanola.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#107 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:38 pm

12z HWRF... Bit slower and NE of previous runs... Almost Cat 3 in 72 hours...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#108 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:44 pm

Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#109 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:53 pm

Blown Away wrote:12z HWRF... Bit slower and NE of previous runs... Almost Cat 3 in 72 hours...


Wowza!


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#110 Postby Nuno » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:54 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/bbMEIDh.png


So like usual? :p
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#111 Postby Cat5James » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:54 pm

Both HMON and HWRF are trending significantly stronger :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#112 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:55 pm

Uh oh! Here comes the 12z Euro...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#113 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:55 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#114 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:57 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/bbMEIDh.png

So, like the normal Euro since 2020?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#115 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:58 pm

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#116 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:59 pm

kevin wrote:HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png


At that point, almost 1.5 degrees ENE/Slower than previous run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#117 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:00 pm

kevin wrote:HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

Threading the needle.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#118 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:01 pm

The 12Z ECMWF shows 97L steadily deepening through forty-eight hours, even as it shows the system crossing the Lesser Antilles. Big shift toward GFS/HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#119 Postby Steve » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:02 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Something to think about as well, the stronger this becomes, the more likely this could pull north and either graze the islands or completely disrupt its core as it landfalls in Hispanola.


Maybe. 500mb shows it travelling around the periphery of high pressure. No matter how strong it got, it's not going to go through the heart of that. It has to go around. However, GFS continues to pulse the high so a Charley type hook back doesn't look that likely based on what it seems to be indicating is going to happen. You'd expect more of a hit toward the central Panhandle than on the SW Coast. What gives it its eastern component is a shortwave back by Missouri. That's not really the configuration for that directional movement it's showing. Of course landfall interaction can pull it in as well which I'm not discounting. I'm just not sure that GFS is super realistic for a week out. It might be close though.

Here's the 500 at Hour 162 (1 am CDT next Wednesday). You can run the forward from there and see the upper pattern's evolution.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=162
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#120 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:03 pm

Image
12z Euro on board developing 97L quickly...
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