ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Chugging along trying not to outrun its canopy

[NDG]

Insane that by Elsa moving so fast over the next 48 hrs it could be a threat to southern FL in less than 5 days when considering how far it still is, if it stays away from the higher terrains of the G.A.

[eastcoastFL]

Let's hope they are right and Elsa fails to be a big threat to anyone.

12Z Euro still indicates dissipation near Haiti Sunday morning.

Either the Euro is going to be right, or it is really lazy. This run looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z run. I am having doubts that Elsa is going to amount to much unless she starts to slow down. Since the NHC is saying she is about to accelerate even more, I would not be surprised if the Euro is right about Elsa.

It’s worth noting that none of the models really give this thing gas until early tomorrow morning into tomorrow. I think we’re in a waiting period on intensity and structure. If by tomorrow morning it looks the same then I’d say it’s got trouble.

[galaxy401]

Elsa took a big bump northwards in that loop. Every year there's always a storm that makes us wonder if it's going to go through Hispaniola or miss it.

[eastcoastFL]

Insane that by Elsa moving so fast over the next 48 hrs it could be a threat to southern FL in less than 5 days when considering how far it still is, if it stays away from the higher terrains of the G.A.

https://i.imgur.com/lOc6qmX.png

I was trying to explain to my wife that we still don’t know if it’s going to make it to Florida and she’s like “we’re already in the cone”. Ya but it’s still waaaaay out there..

[Shell Mound]

Elsa took a big bump northwards in that loop. Every year there's always a storm that makes us wonder if it's going to go through Hispaniola or miss it.

This could be another indication that the ECMWF is correct. In this case a weaker system would be steered farther N than a stronger system that senses the ML ridge.

[psyclone]

Even if Elsa does't make it through the eastern caribbean (something I'd give a good 3 out of 5 chance) Its mere formation so far east and south so early makes me believe peak season is going to be nutso...

[DestinHurricane]

Elsa took a big bump northwards in that loop. Every year there's always a storm that makes us wonder if it's going to go through Hispaniola or miss it.

I think aric mentioned it may be doing a cyclonic loop

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

[aspen]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL052021/DayLandCloud/GOES16-AL052021-DayLandCloud-1000x1000.gif?hash=57737

Even though the circulation is more exposed than early this morning, moisture does seem to be wrapping around. Convection was originally just in the southern half of the storm but now it has been popping in the northern half too. The last frame(s) show blobs of convection both north and south of the LLC. Some more bursts should wrap the entire LLC within the next 12 hours and mix out the bit of dry air that’s been causing some issues.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the LLC got back under the convection but I could be wrong

[NDG]

No doubt now where the LLC is now.

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2021070118, , BEST, 0, 107N, 526W, 40, 1005, TS

[eastcoastFL]

No doubt now where the LLC is now.

https://i.imgur.com/Ex0EH8x.gif

Yup. Right under that consistent convection. Sucks we’re going to lose visible soon and it’s going to look like crap on IR

[ConvergenceZone]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

Is it normal for the Atlantic to look like this on July 1st??

[aspen]

No doubt now where the LLC is now.

https://i.imgur.com/Ex0EH8x.gif

Yup. Right under that consistent convection

Looks to be between the two blobs of convection and underneath neither of them, IMO. Seems to be dealing with dry air as modeled on the HWRF run.

[eastcoastFL]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

Is it normal for the Atlantic to look like this on July 1st??

I’m not too sure what normal is anymore. Sure isn’t normal for the MDR to produce any long tracking storms this early but we will have to see how far Elsa goes. I believe This was only the 2nd storm in history to originate as Far East as it did.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just the one named storm but the Atlantic looks busy

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/irng8.GIF

Is it normal for the Atlantic to look like this on July 1st??

No, it isn't normal. These two retired mets I watch regularly commented about all the convection down in the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea a couple of days ago how atypical it is.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/J-J1mcRAsZw[/youtube]

[Ubuntwo]

It's worth noting that the Euro shows only weakening over the next 8 hours. The GFS by comparison has mild intensification over the same interval. So convective organization thru tonight is a big thing to watch. If Elsa remains disorganized and struggles to fire convection over ~8 hours, that will lead far more credence to the Euro solution. Any increase in organization and deep convection over that time will swing in favor of the stronger GFS. With this forward motion time is everything.