ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3041 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:41 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
jlauderdal wrote: There is another one dead ahead, the conducive environment is very short-lived.

Elsa has more time than you think.

has about 12 to 15 hours I would guess, that can be a lot of time in the tropics sometimes.


While I definitely don't think Elsa will be that strong, the path she is expected to take kind of reminds me of that of Charley (although Charley hit SW Florida and not the upper W coast). Charley got beaten up by Cuba but then went from a Cat 2 to Cat 4 in like 3 hours.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3042 Postby cane5 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:41 pm

Feeder bands look to be 10hrs away from South Florida. It’s as clear as day a front is digging down and you can see it in the imagery. This should start to pull Elsa up earlier than anticipated.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3043 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:43 pm

cane5 wrote:Feeder bands look to be 10hrs away from South Florida. It’s as clear as day a front is digging down and you can see it in the imagery. This should start to pull Elsa up earlier than anticipated.


Earlier than anticipated by what?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3044 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:45 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
jlauderdal wrote: There is another one dead ahead, the conducive environment is very short-lived.

Elsa has more time than you think.

has about 12 to 15 hours I would guess, that can be a lot of time in the tropics sometimes.

Should be around 18 hours
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3045 Postby hiflyer » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:47 pm

aspen wrote:Why is recon going west instead of, you know, towards the storm?


Scheduled recon Teal72 but it has gone west far past Key West cruising at 280kts at 24000 feet. FYI couple commercial airlines diverted from approach Montego Bay awhile back as squalls went thru....but arrivals and departures have resumed. Passengers getting a good view of Elsa i guess....
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3046 Postby Michele B » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:47 pm

rigbyrigz wrote:
cane5 wrote:When I personally track storms I mainly look at where we end up. To me strength is too hard to predict. The dynamic I posted earlier shows a digging low front traugh for storm purposes. And so we have 2 high pressure systems one on each side of the state. So with tha digging trough it will pull Elsa ahead of projection and then more east with the ridge in the atlantic weakening. Bottom line it puts all of Southern Florida not just the keys on high alert. Just my opinion. Mark this post.

Some models ARE now showing almost a due East trek across Florida, but maybe near Tampa or the Big Bend, will be interesting (and important to many).


keep in mind, too, if she comes in near Tamp or even big bend area,’with the “dirty side” trailing along, and then turns eastward, the entire southern half of the state will be raked with torrential wind and rain for hours.

That’ll leave a mess.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3047 Postby cane5 » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:48 pm

tolakram wrote:
cane5 wrote:Feeder bands look to be 10hrs away from South Florida. It’s as clear as day a front is digging down and you can see it in the imagery. This should start to pull Elsa up earlier than anticipated.


Earlier than anticipated by what?


According to the cone which go by the models. Basically there is a break up of the storm so influences are already far away from the center so the cone means little here.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3048 Postby Michele B » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:50 pm

Jr0d wrote:I thought the hurricane hunters were exempt from the Cuba no-fly rule....but it looks like Teal 72 is taking a trip around Cuba, instead of going straight to the storm....

https://www.flightradar24.com/TEAL72/2849d491


That’s the conversation I thought we had this morning!
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3049 Postby psyclone » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:50 pm

cane5 wrote:Feeder bands look to be 10hrs away from South Florida. It’s as clear as day a front is digging down and you can see it in the imagery. This should start to pull Elsa up earlier than anticipated.


The NHC track has been remarkably consistent. Don't expect it to vary much. For south florida it doesn't matter. If you're in florida and you're east of the expected track...you're in the game for some weather. Poorly organized systems often feature the worst weather well removed from the center. that should be the case here and virtually all of the spunky convection will reside right of the track..
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3050 Postby aspen » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:51 pm

The NHC is forecasting Elsa’s Cuban landfall probably around midday tomorrow and mentions in their discussion that it could get back up to 60 kt. They also mentioned that blocked inflow is probably one of the reasons why Elsa has not been able to intensify despite improving outflow and a good satellite presentation.

12-18 hours over water could be enough time for Elsa to become somewhat stronger than it is now.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3051 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:51 pm

cane5 wrote:
tolakram wrote:
cane5 wrote:Feeder bands look to be 10hrs away from South Florida. It’s as clear as day a front is digging down and you can see it in the imagery. This should start to pull Elsa up earlier than anticipated.


Earlier than anticipated by what?


According to the cone which go by the models. Basically there is a break up of the storm so influences are already far away from the center so the cone means little here.


The cone is simply a circle around every forecast point that represents the average error for that point in time. No model influence. Here's their explanation of it: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Here is the NHC forecast from June 30th. Darn, they were 2 hours off on the position!

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3052 Postby BYG Jacob » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:54 pm

One good burst on the western side of the storm will close off that band, and then we'll be in trouble.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3053 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:59 pm

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding
features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation.
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55
kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt.
Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly
impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical
shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening.
Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow
by the land masses surrounding the cyclone.

The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track
forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should
move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high
pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the
system should accelerate northward to northeastward over
the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No
significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions.

Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south
coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official
forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in
that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear
is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica
tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides
will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands
and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and
mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern
Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread
into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for
portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical
storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning
as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3054 Postby tolakram » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:00 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3055 Postby hohnywx » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:01 pm

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.
Last edited by hohnywx on Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3056 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:01 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:Elsa has more time than you think.

has about 12 to 15 hours I would guess, that can be a lot of time in the tropics sometimes.


While I definitely don't think Elsa will be that strong, the path she is expected to take kind of reminds me of that of Charley (although Charley hit SW Florida and not the upper W coast). Charley got beaten up by Cuba but then went from a Cat 2 to Cat 4 in like 3 hours.


This setup is very different than charley but as always intensity forecasting can be mysterious.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3057 Postby Vdogg » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:05 pm

skyline385 wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
NDG wrote:
Is showing a tropical storm hitting FL so what about it.


My point being, some are calling Elsa “dead” and the Euro just had its strongest run yet.


That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...

It’s not all about Florida. :wink: We in Virginia are watching what could potentially be a hurricane riding up the coast if the Euro verifies.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3058 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:08 pm

Vdogg wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
My point being, some are calling Elsa “dead” and the Euro just had its strongest run yet.


That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...

It’s not all about Florida. :wink: We in Virginia are watching what could potentially be a hurricane riding up the coast if the Euro verifies.


Highly unlikely that will verify. nothing to allow it to get that strong. The EURO is out to lunch on that one, which is why the NHC doesn't even mention it...
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3059 Postby psyclone » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:10 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...

It’s not all about Florida. :wink: We in Virginia are watching what could potentially be a hurricane riding up the coast if the Euro verifies.


Highly unlikely that will verify. nothing to allow it to get that strong. The EURO is out to lunch on that one, which is why the NHC doesn't even mention it...


The TS wind probs above Florida are extremely low. Norfolk is 7%.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ELSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3060 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 04, 2021 4:13 pm

Vdogg wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
hohnywx wrote:
My point being, some are calling Elsa “dead” and the Euro just had its strongest run yet.


That strongest run was just a Tropical storm though, we get TS force winds all the time here during random downpours...

It’s not all about Florida. :wink: We in Virginia are watching what could potentially be a hurricane riding up the coast if the Euro verifies.
Join the fray, floridians have beaten this storm into submission. Mid atlantic flooding could be substantial, begin your preps.
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