ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

I think that it is interesting that the 30kt sheer today wasn't there in the gulf yesterday. Levi did say it would hinder intensification but some strengthening could occur. Did the storm somehow increase the knots? Originally it was supposed to be 20kts for today and now it's 30? What happened? Although we can truly be thankful for it thats for sure.

[wxman57]

SE wind 15-20 kts at Marathon Key, not far east of Key West. TS winds don't extend much east of Key West.

[wxman57]

I think that it is interesting that the 30kt sheer today wasn't there in the gulf yesterday. Levi did say it would hinder intensification but some strengthening could occur. Did the storm somehow increase the knots? Originally it was supposed to be 20kts for today and now it's 30? What happened? Although we can truly be thankful for it thats for sure.

SW shear appears to be stronger than predicted. I thought that Elsa would be in the most favorable area of the eastern Gulf (for strengthening) today. Maybe not...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Despite the shear, asymmetric strengthening continues, (it’s harder with destructive shear) due to increasing winds on radar as more powerful winds slowly fill the Mlc and spin down.

[underthwx]

Exposed center appears to be near 24.9N/83W. Getting more separation from the squall to the east.

Is the exposed center a result of shear?...or possibly a center reformation?..good morning btw!

[AlphaToOmega]

As we learned, just a few days ago, this system somehow intensifies in unfavorable conditions and weakens in favorable conditions. I would not be surprised if it somehow intensified into a hurricane under 30-knot wind shear.

[NDG]

They are right about in the radius of max winds. Unfortunately, they nor we can separate the TS winds from the center in our graphics. There is probably a small band of TS wind east of the center in that heavy squall area. Looks like max winds are about 40 kts, though one could argue that they could be as high as 45 kts somewhere in that squall.

The only sustained winds I’ve seen so far over 40kts is sand key. They’ve been reporting for over an hour now sustained 40+kt winds

What is Sand Key's ICAO? (the 3-letter station identifier)

Here's a good link to Sand Key C-MAN station.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think Paulette intensified in 50 knot shear into a hurricane so for sure not impossible

[AlphaToOmega]

Parts of Florida could see ~1.5 meters (5 feet) of storm surge.

[wxman57]

NHC still forecasting strengthening today, probably because the Euro was indicating strengthening. Clearly, they don't want the public to lower their guard in case it does strengthen. I have 40-45 kts in my forecast and no strengthening. My forecasts aren't seen by the public, though.

[wxman57]

Parts of Florida could see ~1.5 meters (5 feet) of storm surge.

That would be the extreme. 2-3 ft more likely with onshore flow up to 30-40 kts.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is definitely intensifying on radar. Through upper/mid level wind intake, is there a name for that? I think it is called Divergence but I am not sure. Earlier I was trying to think of the word in my posts but could not remember.

[Evil Jeremy]

So the new advisory has Elsa strengthening back from a TD to a TS while still inland (over NC/VA)

Is there precedent for that in that region? This isn’t a Florida/Everglades dynamic.

[NDG]

[Prosepro]

Parts of Florida could see ~1.5 meters (5 feet) of storm surge.

That would be the extreme. 2-3 ft more likely with onshore flow up to 30-40 kts.

If we do get a strong onshore wind into Tampa Bay, 3 to 5 foot surge is very possible. It is very shallow and it doesn't take much to pile it up.

There are a lot of clips on YouTube from TS Eta last year around here, and it was over 50 miles away.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/4xH2LqptCwQ[/youtube]

[Category6]

SE FL is bone dry and I don't see any bands coming this way on the radar. We might get less rain here than we do on a normal summer day. Very light winds as well (10-15 mph).

[Michele B]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_05L/web/gifsBy12hr_07.gif

These videos are the coolest things!

It's especially interesting how the "blob" following along behind just keeps lagging...

Gives the storm a "comma" look, rather than what I call a "buzz-saw."

Interestingly, we've seen that "comma" look before in the previous year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So the new advisory has Elsa strengthening back from a TD to a TS while still inland (over NC/VA)

Is there precedent for that in that region? This isn’t a Florida/Everglades dynamic.

Yes, Claudette did exactly this a few days ago.

[NDG]

Red dot is where the NHC 11 AM Advisory estimated the COC to be.

[InfernoFlameCat]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_05L/web/gifsBy12hr_07.gif

These videos are the coolest things!

It's especially interesting how the "blob" following along behind just keeps lagging...

Gives the storm a "comma" look, rather than what I call a "buzz-saw."

Interestingly, we've seen that "comma" look before in the previous year.

Its common for sheared storms to look like that. Also when a storm begins extropical transition they tend to shape up like that due to baroclinic forcing.