What will July end with?

[AlphaToOmega]

- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate, Larry, etc...

[CFLHurricane]

- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate, Larry, etc...

Probably only getting to Grace this month, if that.

[Iceresistance]

- Elsa
- Fred
- Grace
- Henri
- Ida
- Julian
- Kate, Larry, etc...

Between Grace & Ida for sure

[AlphaToOmega]

I think we will get a subtropical storm in mid-July (Fred). There were two storms of tropical origin in June (Claudette and Elsa (wave formed in June)). I think we could see two or three storms of tropical origin form in late July, bringing us to Henri or Ida.

[Teban54]

Isn't this question essentially the same as this?

[aspen]

Probably Fred or Grace. I don’t anticipate any more activity for the middle portion of July when the suppressive CCKW is in place, but late month could spark at least one MDR system.

[chaser1]

I'm feeling "Grace" will be the final named storm to form in July, and also be the first formidable hurricane to pose a significant threat to the Antilles or Carribbean region.

[underthwx]

For sure... The 31st... But I think the G storm is a possibility...

[Blinhart]

July 31st. LMAO

[Category5Kaiju]

I am thinking that we will end this month with Henri; however, maybe it's because I am superstitious (or IDK), but the name "Grace" for a possible TC is very ironic. Makes me want to believe that that might actually be a bad storm, but who knows?

[hcane27]

Elsa

[AnnularCane]

Larry.

J/k.

I will go with Grace. I could say Fred, but I'm allowing for something unexpected to pop up along with possible MDR development.

[kevin]

Fred or Grace. The suppressive CCKW will limit development in the near future even though I think a messy TS could still form somewhere so that might be Fred. Grace could then be a more formidable storm or hurricane near the end of the month, perhaps the strongest storm of the season so far.

[aspen]

I’m starting to think there’s a slim chance of July ending with Henri. Seems like July 20th onwards will have favorable VP anomalies for MDR/AEW cyclogenesis, which could be enough time to squeeze out more than one named storm. It’s also not impossible for something weak to spin up in a suppressive CCKW or MJO phase; just look at last year’s Dolly.

Henri has been one of those names that has been consistently used for weak, sloppy, and forgettable systems. Could 2021 finally change this with the name potentially being used in a positive CCKW phase in late July or August? Hermine was stuck in a similar situation for decades until 2016.

Edit: I forgot about Henry ‘79, which was a 75 kt Cat 1. But it still looked like slop. Also, The Perfect Storm technically wasn’t Henri even though it should’ve been named so.

[ElectricStorm]

Probably Fred or Grace, but the way this season has gone so far, I wouldn't really be surprised if we get to Henri.

[Teban54]

I’m starting to think there’s a slim chance of July ending with Henri. Seems like July 20th onwards will have favorable VP anomalies for MDR/AEW cyclogenesis, which could be enough time to squeeze out more than one named storm. It’s also not impossible for something weak to spin up in a suppressive CCKW or MJO phase; just look at last year’s Dolly.

Henri has been one of those names that has been consistently used for weak, sloppy, and forgettable systems. Could 2021 finally change this with the name potentially being used in a positive CCKW phase in late July or August? Hermine was stuck in a similar situation for decades until 2016.

Edit: I forgot about Henry ‘79, which was a 75 kt Cat 1. But it still looked like slop. Also, The Perfect Storm technically wasn’t Henri even though it should’ve been named so.

I actually kind of want to see Henri retired and replaced with Hans. Especially since we'll likely see Elsa again in 2027, unless Barbados thinks the unexpected hurricane damage was bad enough.

[Shell Mound]

Elsa

This seems to have been a very good guess (issued on July 7).

[hcane27]

Elsa

This seems to have been a very good guess (issued on July 7).

Maybe prescience would be a better term .....

[Shell Mound]

Elsa

This seems to have been a very good guess (issued on July 7).

Maybe prescience would be a better term .....

Climatology is very prescient.

[Nimbus]

Elsa was a rare *lucky* storm that was low latitude and stayed connected to the ITCZ moisture for most of its journey west maybe no harbinger for August.