EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

125 kt…now that’s more like it.

[wx98]

I was reading the last few pages getting caught up, and I was thinking that if I were going to issue an advisory, I would say 125 kt. I get to the last couple posts and see that in fact BT is now up to 125 kt

[tolakram]

Proxy Visible.

Wow, look at that.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=full_disk&x=13136&y=7680&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1180&y=1152&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

UW-Madison Imagry: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES17.html

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes17/ir13/goes17_fulldisk_60.html

[Subtrop]

Tropical Storm Felicia

WTPZ61 KNHC 171330
TCUEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
330 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021


...FELICIA STRENGTHENS FURTHER...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that the maximum
sustained winds of Felicia have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. This higher intensity will be reflected in the
next advisory, issued by 500 AM HST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Fancy1001]

How does Felicia compared to Marco in size?

[aspen]

Tropical Storm Felicia

WTPZ61 KNHC 171330
TCUEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
330 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021


...FELICIA STRENGTHENS FURTHER...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that the maximum
sustained winds of Felicia have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. This higher intensity will be reflected in the
next advisory, issued by 500 AM HST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Wow that’s impressive for a tropical storm /s

Since they’re going with 125 kt for a special advisory, perhaps that means they’ll go higher at 11, maybe 130 or 135 kt.

[cycloneye]

They fixed the header.

Hurricane Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected

[InfernoFlameCat]

For a brief time, we had a 145mph tropical storm

[InfernoFlameCat]

I want a storm like that in the atlantic! Its so pretty and perfect.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh yeah, 145 mph and 947 mbar with annular features…that looks like business now! Looks as beautiful as Hector back in 2018 imho

[Fancy1001]

How does it’s size compare to Marco

[aspen]

How does it’s size compare to Marco

As small as Felicia is, it absolutely dwarfs Marco; that only had TS winds going out 8 miles from the center IIRC.

[cycloneye]

Even at Water Vapor looks very impressive.

[ElectricStorm]

Just woke up and this storm looks amazing...

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 171236
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 14.5N

D. 124.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS
IN A DT OF 6.0. MET=7.0 AND PT=6.5. SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON AN ANNULAR
APPEARANCE WITH LITTLE OUTER BANDING AND A LARGE STADIUM-EFFECT EYE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 JUL 2021 Time : 135032 UTC
Lat : 14:34:47 N Lon : 124:21:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +17.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Felicia provided another surprise early this morning, with a ring
of very cold cloud tops (<-70 deg C) developing around the clear
eye of the tiny hurricane. The 12Z TAFB Dvorak analysis was
T6.5/127 kt and that is the basis for the 125 kt intensity
estimate. Cloud tops have warmed ever so slightly since 12Z, but
the hurricane's satellite presentation remains very impressive.

Due to the higher initial intensity, the first 36 h of the intensity
forecast has been increased as well. Slight weakening is anticipated
by tonight as Felicia begins to move over marginally cool SSTs.
Internal factors such as eyewall replacement cycles are also
possible with any major hurricane and could result in shorter-term
intensity changes that are not reflected in the forecast. By around
48 h, Felicia is forecast to move over waters below 26 deg C, and
some models like the ECMWF and HWRF also indicate it could begin to
encounter less favorable upper-level winds. If that solution bears
out, Felicia could weaken even faster than indicated since the
surrounding environment is fairly dry and the hurricane's small size
makes it particularly susceptible to rapid intensity changes. The
NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope
through 36 h and near the intensity consensus by the end of the
5-day period. It is worth noting that confidence is high that
Felicia will weaken dramatically by the end of the forecast period,
but considerable uncertainty remains in the details of exactly when
and at what rate it will happen.

Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the track forecast.
Felicia is currently moving westward near 7 kt, and that general
motion will likely continue today. The dynamical guidance is in good
agreement that small fluctuations in ridging to the north of Felicia
should allow the hurricane to turn west-northwestward by Sunday, and
then back toward the west in about 48 h. An extensive deep-layer
ridge centered over the central Pacific should then cause Felicia to
gradually accelerate west-southwestward through the end of the
forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is near but just
south of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 14.6N 124.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[AlphaToOmega]

The HWRF has consistently underestimated the intensity of Felicia. I think a Category V is likely.

[Yellow Evan]

The HWRF has consistently underestimated the intensity of Felicia. I think a Category V is likely.

Not unless a plane is magically flown through it because Dvorak and ADT will never support T7.0 with this sort of system.

[Iceresistance]

She’s tiny but Fierce!

These small storms are hard to forecast, but she is looking extremely impressive.

As a Annular Hurricane, weakening is going to be slower than normal hurricanes.