2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Shell Mound]

Future Fred is far weaker but still trackable on the 12z GFS. Either the 18z will drop it entirely (for a time), or it’ll be stronger.

Recall that all previous 00Z/12Z suites were not showing any development prior to today. Today’s 12Z run is by far the strongest of all 00Z/12Z runs thus far, and also the first to show a well-defined, albeit weak, TC. So the GFS and ECMWF are clearly converging on a possible TC in the MDR about a week from today, and both models, including the EC’s ensemble suite, are showing similar locations and timeframes in regard to TCG. Given current trends, the upcoming 06Z/18Z suites are likely to trend toward an even stronger TC.

[aspen]

12z Euro has splashdown on early Friday and a strong wave with a circulation by 144hr.

[AtlanticWind]

Models starting to show development right when we would expect things to pick up.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF run from the 6th.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles with quite a number of members showing a low moving west towards Lesser Antilles similar to that Euro op run above. Seems we are on our way to getting a mention by NHC for this wave once it emerges into the Eastern Atlantic later this week.

Link to 12Z Euro ensemble run, wave emerges at 120 hours:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=006&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=240&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=Off&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

[aspen]

12Z Euro ensembles with quite a number of members showing a low moving west towards Lesser Antilles similar to that Euro op run above. Seems we are on our way to getting a mention by NHC for this wave once it emerges into the Eastern Atlantic later this week.

Link to 12Z Euro ensemble run, wave emerges at 120 hours:
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=MSLP_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=006&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=240&initlint=6&initol1=MSLP_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=Off&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

This Euro ensemble map is also pretty active in the MDR: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

Notice how in the WeatherNerds ensemble run and the 12z operation run, the Euro seemingly tries to develop one of the waves in the eastern MDR right by the Cabo Verde islands, but it doesn’t become much.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF Ensembles are bullish.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF Ensembles are bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/eg5kQ4K.png

Quite active and further south.

[CyclonicFury]

We'll have to see if the signal holds when the wave emerges into the Atlantic. We've seen models develop inland waves into powerful hurricanes only for them to drop the signal completely after splashdown many times the last few years.

[AtlanticWind]

We'll have to see if the signal holds when the wave emerges into the Atlantic. We've seen models develop inland waves into powerful hurricanes only for them to drop the signal completely after splashdown many times the last few years.

True, but it is noteworthy that the models are showing conditions becoming more
conducive in the long range as expected going into the peak season.

[aspen]

18z GFS looks like it was gonna develop this…but then it fell apart. Splashdown looks to be earlier than I originally thought, on Thursday night instead of early Friday. Maybe that’s soon enough for the NHC to give this a lemon within the next two days.

[cycloneye]

Wave reaches the Lesser Antilles islands with a good deal of rain.

[Cpv17]

Did you miss the bolded part?

Meh. Is 8 storms in two months during peak season really that much? Seems about average.

Most of August is not peak season.

I’d say after August 20th is the beginning of peak season. For me here in southeast TX the season ends after about the third week in September for the most part.

[wxman57]

Conditions in the MDR may still be too hostile for much to develop there next week (7-10 day time frame). Let the quiet continue!

[cycloneye]

May not develop but a rainy period ensures for the NE Eastern Caribbean islands.

[SFLcane]

Noticing an uptick on the 18z GEFS ensembles.

If it has a *consistent* strong signal that's usually a good indicator of genesis.

[aspen]

May not develop but a rainy period ensures for the NE Eastern Caribbean islands.

https://i.imgur.com/BZqKu3W.gif

EPac bias in full effect. Highly unlikely we see a hurricane rapidly form and intensify that close to the coast in a -ENSO year where every other close-to-Mexico model storm was delayed for days until it got to 110-120W.

Noticing an uptick on the 18z GEFS ensembles.

If it has a *consistent* strong signal that's usually a good indicator of genesis.

https://i.postimg.cc/xd7tH5sz/E326-B2-ED-D724-4209-ACB0-F2-B44-AEE324-E.gif

Where can I find the GEFS/Euro ensemble models on WeatherNerds?

[SFLcane]

May not develop but a rainy period ensures for the NE Eastern Caribbean islands.

https://i.imgur.com/BZqKu3W.gif

EPac bias in full effect. Highly unlikely we see a hurricane rapidly form and intensify that close to the coast in a -ENSO year where every other close-to-Mexico model storm was delayed for days until it got to 110-120W.

Noticing an uptick on the 18z GEFS ensembles.

If it has a *consistent* strong signal that's usually a good indicator of genesis.

https://i.postimg.cc/xd7tH5sz/E326-B2-ED-D724-4209-ACB0-F2-B44-AEE324-E.gif

Where can I find the GEFS/Euro ensemble models on WeatherNerds?

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gef ... latlon=Off

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

[captainbarbossa19]

We'll have to see if the signal holds when the wave emerges into the Atlantic. We've seen models develop inland waves into powerful hurricanes only for them to drop the signal completely after splashdown many times the last few years.

We have also seen models develop storms, drop them, and then bring them back. We have also seen when there is something to track, the models keep systems too weak. I am still thinking right around August 20th, conditions will become very favorable for storms including the first major hurricane of the season.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=120

Euro devoleps wave now off Africa I believe