2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[CyclonicFury]

Operative words: “likely” and “maybe.” Recently I have never made a definitive statement without adding qualifiers such as these two.

What about deep-layer shear in the Caribbean during July 2021? I believe it was above average. Do you have access to charts from that period?

Looks pretty close to average according to this chart:
https://i.imgur.com/mYaABdl_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Do you mind posting the link to the original source? In the near future I would very much like to refer to it as a resource. Thank you.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/

[storminabox]

Global SST anomalies in the North Atlantic.

The GoM is Boiling at between 29-31°C

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_natl.png

The subtropics and equatorial regions are still relatively warmer than the MDR and Caribbean, however, so the -AMO “horseshoe” is still in place, despite warming.

It is, but it is FAR less defined than it was say 3-4 weeks ago. It’ll be very interesting to see how this season behaves.

[SFLcane]

Hate to say it but we’re still going to have to get past next 2-3 weeks as the epac is slowly loosing its crip very slow transition. There is still a huge TUTT on the long range GEFS anchored in the western Atl. Not expecting anything from current 2 ways high lighted by nhc it’s way to dry and stable.

[AlphaToOmega]

Both ensembles show very low wind shear for the subtropical Atlantic. The GEFS shows moderate wind shear for the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, and the GEPS shows low wind shear for the Caribbean Sea and the Western Atlantic. The GEFS shows very low wind shear for the MDR, but the GEPS shows very high wind shear for the MDR.

[captainbarbossa19]

Hate to say it but we’re still going to have to get past next 2-3 weeks as the epac is slowly loosing its crip very slow transition. There is still a huge TUTT on the long range GEFS anchored in the western Atl. Not expecting anything from current 2 ways high lighted by nhc it’s way to dry and stable.

https://i.postimg.cc/bNphP5yx/8974-ED6-D-43-CA-49-A7-B673-774891696838.png

That's the thing about August. It's unfavorable one day, and then it's suddenly not. Models are not going to handle the transition well once again I believe. Oddly enough, the GFS is showing less EPAC activity in the next 10 days than the Euro now.

[Shell Mound]

It definitely appears that the strong African monsoon will play a role in causing lots of prospective systems to eject northward and head OTS, like the latest wave.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1423267549232439296

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423314855973453827

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1423318587901579267

[AlphaToOmega]

A warmer than average Caribbean as well as +TNA imply an above-average hurricane season. Interestingly, SSTs near the East Coast are negatively correlated with activity. A global view shows what SST patterns are favorable for active hurricane seasons: -ENSO, -PDO, +TNA, +AMO, and -IOD. A global view of VP patterns shows at -VP over Africa and the Indian Ocean and +VP over the Americas and the East Pacific correlate with active hurricane seasons. There are no surprises here except for positive SSTAs near the East Coast negative impacting hurricane season activity.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423314855973453827

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1423321720837050373



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423320088615264258



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1423322362506670083

[Category5Kaiju]

Using the global measn sst graphic I feel is somewhat misleading, as if you look at the worldwide view of it, you'll notice that it's not just the Atlantic that is below average; it's literally all of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, minus the waters off of Korea, East Russia, Japan, and Alaska.

[AlphaToOmega]

[Category5Kaiju]

Unless my eyes are lying to me and I need more than just glasses, it seems to me that there's a pretty clear trend of the MDR and tropical Atlantic warming? I'm not exactly sure where the idea that the Atlantic will be hindered due to cooler than average sst anomalies is coming from (unless it's CDAS?)

[Woofde]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1423314855973453827

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1423321720837050373



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1423320088615264258



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1423322362506670083

If we are going to use the Global Mean SSTs maps for judging the Atlantic on it's warmth, then we should use the same metric for the Pacific. Adjusted against the Global Average the Pacific looks like it's in a full blown La Nina.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

[AlphaToOmega]

The MDR is warmer than the global tropics. Moreover, how many times do I have to say that we have been in a consistent +AMO since February 2019?

[Category5Kaiju]

Don't get me wrong; I sincerely respect Eric Webb and all he has done for the wx community (especially during hurricane season) and his Tweets, graphics, and all of that; but I am not sure if using the global sst mean map is the most efficient way of judging how "warm" or "cool" the Atlantic is and how that relates to activity potential.

[AlphaToOmega]

Does anyone have the OISST Global Mean SSTA maps for 2020-08-04, 2019-08-04, 2018-08-04, 2017-08-04, etc...?

[CyclonicFury]

Don't get me wrong; I sincerely respect Eric Webb and all he has done for the wx community (especially during hurricane season) and his Tweets, graphics, and all of that; but I am not sure if using the global sst mean map is the most efficient way of judging how "warm" or "cool" the Atlantic is and how that relates to activity potential.

I agree with you. Raw SSTs do matter when it comes to TC genesis, especially in the MDR. Regardless of how it compares to the global mean anomaly, 27°C SSTs would have more thermodynamic potential than 26°C.

[SFLcane]

TSR going with 122 ACE seems rather low also reduced there numbers a bit. But they mentioned landfall probability was quite high this season.