ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I have it moving inland near Apalachicola, FL late Sunday evening at 50 kts. Probably a better chance of moving inland farther west than farther east. Not too much farther west, though.

[robbielyn]

GOM looks quite the powder keg with 4500 CAPE this morning.
This is where TD6 will have the best development

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwWfbt5x/GOM1.png [/url]

Is that saharan dry air ahead of 94L, headed in the gulf to dry him up if he gets there? It would be nice to have either dry air or sheer to keep it weak in the eastern gulf if possible.

[AlphaToOmega]

Dry air should not be a problem for PTC 06L. The SAL should be starting to wind down now that it is August.

[NDG]

GOM looks quite the powder keg with 4500 CAPE this morning.
This is where TD6 will have the best development

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwWfbt5x/GOM1.png [/url]

Is that saharan dry air ahead of 94L, headed in the gulf to dry him up if he gets there? It would be nice to have either dry air or sheer to keep it weak in the eastern gulf if possible.

Models show that dry air keep pushing west ahead towards MX and southern TX by the time 06L reaches the eastern GOM.

[robbielyn]

GOM looks quite the powder keg with 4500 CAPE this morning.
This is where TD6 will have the best development

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwWfbt5x/GOM1.png [/url]

Is that saharan dry air ahead of 94L, headed in the gulf to dry him up if he gets there? It would be nice to have either dry air or sheer to keep it weak in the eastern gulf if possible.

Models show that dry air keep pushing west ahead towards MX and southern TX by the time 06L reaches the eastern GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/8yf5g76.png

Well then the islands need to shred this enough to not give it time to turn into much. I like to 1010mb GFS is showing. We have been inundated with rain up here in the big bend to tampa area so I was hoping this could just dissapate. Oh well time will tell. I know s fl needs the rain so if it stays weak it could be beneficial for them.

[NDG]

They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

25400 1616N 06334W 9238 00820 0138 +220 +272 072013 014 012 000 01
125430 1615N 06332W 9239 00819 0145 +217 +056 070012 013 011 000 00
125500 1614N 06331W 9239 00818 0140 +217 +215 062012 012 010 000 01
125530 1613N 06329W 9238 00818 0141 +214 +211 058011 012 011 000 01
125600 1612N 06328W 9239 00818 0143 +212 +113 046008 010 013 000 00
125630 1611N 06326W 9238 00818 0141 +214 +158 041009 010 015 000 00
125700 1609N 06325W 9237 00819 0143 +209 +158 019008 009 018 000 00
125730 1608N 06323W 9210 00846 0146 +206 +159 252006 011 039 037 00
125800 1607N 06322W 9232 00828 0146 +209 +159 175004 006 027 009 00
125830 1606N 06320W 9235 00825 0145 +210 +158 152002 003 025 008 00
125900 1605N 06319W 9237 00818 0144 +210 +156 205006 008 022 000 00
125930 1604N 06317W 9236 00822 0144 +213 +153 193006 009 022 000 00
130000 1603N 06316W 9226 00830 0145 +211 +148 173010 011 027 007 00
130030 1601N 06314W 9233 00826 0145 +214 +148 176013 015 024 010 00

[AutoPenalti]

[abajan]

Mark Sudduth is bullish on it possibly strengthening into a hurricane as it gets into the eastern GOM: https://anchor.fm/hurricanetrack

[Teban54]

They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

25400 1616N 06334W 9238 00820 0138 +220 +272 072013 014 012 000 01
125430 1615N 06332W 9239 00819 0145 +217 +056 070012 013 011 000 00
125500 1614N 06331W 9239 00818 0140 +217 +215 062012 012 010 000 01
125530 1613N 06329W 9238 00818 0141 +214 +211 058011 012 011 000 01
125600 1612N 06328W 9239 00818 0143 +212 +113 046008 010 013 000 00
125630 1611N 06326W 9238 00818 0141 +214 +158 041009 010 015 000 00
125700 1609N 06325W 9237 00819 0143 +209 +158 019008 009 018 000 00
125730 1608N 06323W 9210 00846 0146 +206 +159 252006 011 039 037 00
125800 1607N 06322W 9232 00828 0146 +209 +159 175004 006 027 009 00
125830 1606N 06320W 9235 00825 0145 +210 +158 152002 003 025 008 00
125900 1605N 06319W 9237 00818 0144 +210 +156 205006 008 022 000 00
125930 1604N 06317W 9236 00822 0144 +213 +153 193006 009 022 000 00
130000 1603N 06316W 9226 00830 0145 +211 +148 173010 011 027 007 00
130030 1601N 06314W 9233 00826 0145 +214 +148 176013 015 024 010 00

https://i.imgur.com/mlyBkTx.png

Eerily similar to Elsa, which at one point had center pressure almost the same as background pressure.

[Shell Mound]

They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.

[toad strangler]

So it looks like a Eastern GOM track is pre ordained here. Doesn't always happen like that this far out!

[NDG]

Red dot is where they found the wind shift.

[AutoPenalti]

Speed is slower compared to Elsa so that can't be it.

[NDG]

They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.

Elsa was moving at 30 mph,06L is moving much slower, no comparison.

[jlauderdal]

So it looks like a Eastern GOM track is pre ordained here. Doesn't always happen like that this far out!

Following the nhc track is a very good bet for a keys to egom track even at days 4 and 5 regardless of their warnings about error rates, those error rates are for the last 5 years, the last couple of years they are significantly better.

[AutoPenalti]

Red dot is where they found the wind shift.

https://i.imgur.com/t9AmFIj.jpg

In that case, it's south west of the HWRF 06z initialization. I'm betting on relocations further north considering the amount on convection developing.

[SFLcane]

Red dot is where they found the wind shift.

https://i.imgur.com/t9AmFIj.jpg

North of we’re the nhc had correct?

[SFLcane]

They found a wind shift but pressures are much higher than I would had thought.

I still think it is moving too quickly for the circulation to become vertically stacked. In other words, this system is Elsa 2.0 and hints at unfavourable background.

Come on really? No comparison

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1425083164209270788



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1425083746173161478



 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1425083842545782791

[NDG]

Red dot is where they found the wind shift.

https://i.imgur.com/t9AmFIj.jpg

North of we’re the nhc had correct?

Yes, slightly north but not by that much.