ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

I tend to agree with the center reformation idea here. Also I can’t see how it won’t deepen pretty quickly IF that happens. If you zoom out and look at the satellite presentation, it really is impressive

[Aric Dunn]

Dont anyone even say it...

Developing vort maxes take time to expand the wind field.... light winds well away from the center is normal.. it is closed.

[xironman]

Still a wave, maybe by 5.

[Blown Away]

No center found this pass. Remember HWRF showed a sharp jump north, so this might be part of it.

https://i.imgur.com/SERrqIN.png

https://i.imgur.com/WoI6vJO.png

NHC had PTC6 at 16.0N/63.1W at 8am, I think they will adjust the estimated center closer to 16.7N at 11am

Is there a center, not really.

Lol, never know exactly how to word that, so I put estimated because I think that's closer to the truth.

[aspen]

I’m not sure if this should remain a PTC or get an upgrade to Fred, but odds are the NHC sticks with a PTC designation and raises the intensity to 35 kt, and will wait to upgrade it to Fred by the 5pm advisory if there’s better evidence of west winds.

[AlphaToOmega]

Are the recon wind speeds on Tropical Tidbits adjusted (multiplied by 0.9), or are they the raw numbers coming out of recon?

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m not sure if this should remain a PTC or get an upgrade to Fred, but odds are the NHC sticks with a PTC designation and raises the intensity to 35 kt, and will wait to upgrade it to Fred by the 5pm advisory if there’s better evidence of west winds.

I think this is a reasonable guess. I mean, 40 mph PTCs have existed in the past (with one in 2019 even being 60 mph at one point but I cannot remember which TS it eventually became).

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m not sure if this should remain a PTC or get an upgrade to Fred, but odds are the NHC sticks with a PTC designation and raises the intensity to 35 kt, and will wait to upgrade it to Fred by the 5pm advisory if there’s better evidence of west winds.

I think this is a reasonable guess. I mean, 40 mph PTCs have existed in the past (with one in 2019 even being 60 mph at one point but I cannot remember which TS it eventually became).

Nestor. 60mph PTC while crossing the Gulf from the BoC to the Panhandle.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m not sure if this should remain a PTC or get an upgrade to Fred, but odds are the NHC sticks with a PTC designation and raises the intensity to 35 kt, and will wait to upgrade it to Fred by the 5pm advisory if there’s better evidence of west winds.

I think this is a reasonable guess. I mean, 40 mph PTCs have existed in the past (with one in 2019 even being 60 mph at one point but I cannot remember which TS it eventually became).

Nestor. 60mph PTC while crossing the Gulf from the BoC to the Panhandle.

Oh yeah, Nestor, thanks. I remember people complaining about how it should be a TS with 60 mph winds and some people even asking what would happen if a PTC reached 75 mph winds.

[GCANE]

Looks like they flew straight along the wave axis.
IMHO, not closed off.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1425104173633204224

[Blown Away]

My guess, Very broad/weak.

[AlphaToOmega]

There is clearly a closed low where PTC 06L is located.

[Evil Jeremy]

My guess, Very broad/weak.

That would be a fairly notable jump N. Hard to see it running down the middle of the Hispaniola shredder with that kind of relocation.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/aKUrghl.jpg
My guess, Very broad/weak.

That's too far north, recon has been finding the wind shift and lower MSLPs further south by a whole latitude near 16.4N, per the last pass.

[NDG]

I guess no upgrade because the NHC would had sent out a Tweet by now.

[NDG]

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...

11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 10
Location: 16.3°N 63.8°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[aspen]

So close…some of those new convective bursts should help close this off for good. Not sure if dry air is an issue because the structure of the storm on satellite looks good.

[AlphaToOmega]

So close…some of those new convective bursts should help close this off for good. Not sure if dry air is an issue because the structure of the storm on satellite looks good.

Dry air is not an issue for this system. There is very little Sharan dust in the Atlantic.