ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#581 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:04 pm

Visioen wrote:What amazes me is how the plane is flying upside down.

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.imgur.com/aI7UAgU.png[/url

Maybe the circulation center is @16.5-16.9N/62.5-63W?

Sorry



OMG I just spit out my water reading this :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#582 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:09 pm

10/1730 UTC 16.3N 64.2W T3.0/3.0 06L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#583 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:15 pm

Deep convection seems more coherent in regards to seeing it where you would expect the COC to be. Maybe a sign this is working down to the surface and establishing a CDO.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#584 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:18 pm

Saved loop
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#585 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:19 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
skyline385 wrote:12Z HWRF stronger than last run but probably still very inaccurate as the system still doesn't have a well defined center and recon just got the data to feed in for the next runs...


The 12Z HWRF assimilated the recon data. It's initialization looked quite reasonable to me. Shows a tilted vortex. However, the rest of the run is debatable. I wouldn't totally rule it out, but it doesn't seem like the most likely scenario.

12Z HWRF starts running at around 6Z though, the recon plane was nowhere near it at that time...


How does a 12Z model run at 06Z???

The assimilation window extends beyond 12Z anyway.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#586 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:19 pm

Looks gorgeous for a PTC...
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#587 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:24 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Looks gorgeous for a PTC...

Just call it Fred already...
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#588 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:25 pm

I'm supposed to drive to Ohio this weekend. Getting concerned for Fort Lauderdale and greater south Florida at the moment, if this stays away from islands there's a chance we could have a real problem this weekend.
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ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#589 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:25 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
The 12Z HWRF assimilated the recon data. It's initialization looked quite reasonable to me. Shows a tilted vortex. However, the rest of the run is debatable. I wouldn't totally rule it out, but it doesn't seem like the most likely scenario.

12Z HWRF starts running at around 6Z though, the recon plane was nowhere near it at that time...


How does a 12Z model run at 06Z???

The assimilation window extends beyond 12Z anyway.

I didn't write it down correctly. What i meant to say was that 12Z runs started at 7 AM EST and we see the results 5-6 hours later, the plane was just approaching the wave at that time...
Last edited by skyline385 on Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#590 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:26 pm

The early 18z runs should be in progress right now, I believe this will have recon data.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#591 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:26 pm

I will say, if Barry was the most grotesque hurricane to exist, PTC 6 is perhaps one of the most eye appealing PTCs to exist.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#592 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:34 pm

Looks like a Tropical Storm now for me.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#593 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:34 pm

I think a lot here is dependent on where the center ends up. Further north, less land interaction. Further south, more.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#594 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:34 pm

12Z Euro likes my track.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#595 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:35 pm

On IR, the largest convective area (and deepest) is expanding out radially in all directions.
Also lightning with it.
Looks like that's where the CoC is forming and closing off.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#596 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:41 pm

Most recent radar frames from Puerto Rico radar appear to show a pretty vigorous looking "center" with a strong band wrapping around it at long range. Makes you wonder if that isn't going to be our new "center" before long...
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#597 Postby Jr0d » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro likes my track.


Is your track north or south of Key West?

A track just south of Key West is no good for me, my marina is somewhat vulnerable to East winds. North or even a direct hit from the east I am well protected. I was fine but nervous with Elsa because our strongest winds were from the east.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#598 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:43 pm

Yes, it does have a excellent sat presentation for a PTC. Looks to be becoming better organized as the day progresses....lets see if it can close off before landfall...MGC
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#599 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:46 pm

Image

I think Fred is near, the circulation is under that convection ball, starting to look good IMO.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#600 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 10, 2021 1:46 pm

I am thinking 17.1N 64.5W
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