ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#621 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:37 pm

All the LL clouds west of the axis are pretty much stationary now.
Should start to pull in next few hours
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#622 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:37 pm

What amazes me is that the Eastern Caribbean Sea has been a lot more kind this season to systems passing through it. It's often very hostile to any development.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#623 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:42 pm

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#624 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:43 pm

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
(as of 19:20)
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#625 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:52 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:What amazes me is that the Eastern Caribbean Sea has been a lot more kind this season to systems passing through it. It's often very hostile to any development.


It’s not a graveyard anymore…it’s a big bottle of energy drink
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#626 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:54 pm

Here comes Fred…

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#627 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:54 pm

It’s hard to believe looking at the satellite that this could still be a wave, but we have seen it before in this area. I believe it was Dolly in 2008 that had 55-60 mph sustained winds as a wave with excellent satellite presentation.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#628 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:54 pm

Where is the recon when you need it the most.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#629 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:54 pm

Looks a little better than last time I checked a few hours ago. Almost seems like it has a CDO forming. Banding remains excellent.

Is recon going out again today?
Last edited by aspen on Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#630 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:55 pm

Hot towers might be an indication we have a center all the way down to the surface now.
Might get some ship or buoy obs before this reaches southwestern Puerto Rico.
Radar is still looking at the mid levels and recon didn't find much with dropsondes right at the surface where the dry air has been undercutting the circulation up to 600 MBs.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#631 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:57 pm

I have a hard time believing that this isn't closed. I expect Fred soon!

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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#632 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 10, 2021 2:57 pm

This is still moving due west, not sure the HWRF will verify.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#633 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:01 pm

We are finally seeing some pressures falling in the area, St Croix.
Good indication the LLC is finally getting going.

METAR for: TISX (St Croix/Rohlsen Arp, VI, US)
Text: TISX 101953Z 09022G29KT 6SM RA BR BKN015 OVC070 26/25 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 09029/1944 SLP115 P0000 T02610250
Temperature: 26.1°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1011.9 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1011.5 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.3 m/s) gusting to 33 MPH (29 knots; 14.9 m/s)
Visibility: 6 sm ( 10 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA BR (moderate rain, mist)
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#634 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:04 pm

NDG wrote:We are finally seeing some pressures falling in the area, St Croix.
Good indication the LLC is finally getting going.

METAR for: TISX (St Croix/Rohlsen Arp, VI, US)
Text: TISX 101953Z 09022G29KT 6SM RA BR BKN015 OVC070 26/25 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 09029/1944 SLP115 P0000 T02610250
Temperature: 26.1°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1011.9 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1011.5 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.3 m/s) gusting to 33 MPH (29 knots; 14.9 m/s)
Visibility: 6 sm ( 10 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA BR (moderate rain, mist)


Link?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#635 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:
NDG wrote:We are finally seeing some pressures falling in the area, St Croix.
Good indication the LLC is finally getting going.

METAR for: TISX (St Croix/Rohlsen Arp, VI, US)
Text: TISX 101953Z 09022G29KT 6SM RA BR BKN015 OVC070 26/25 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 09029/1944 SLP115 P0000 T02610250
Temperature: 26.1°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1011.9 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1011.5 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.3 m/s) gusting to 33 MPH (29 knots; 14.9 m/s)
Visibility: 6 sm ( 10 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA BR (moderate rain, mist)


Link?


https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#636 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:08 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:This is still moving due west, not sure the HWRF will verify.


h85 Vorticity has not been moving due W, over all it has been moving WNW for the past 24 hrs.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#637 Postby Nuno » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:16 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:What amazes me is that the Eastern Caribbean Sea has been a lot more kind this season to systems passing through it. It's often very hostile to any development.


We've seen this in storms traversing through the northeast part of the Caribbean Sea, its when they come into the sea at due west or further south where conditions are generally more unfavorable
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#638 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:20 pm

I’m still thinking it’s a broad elongated center near 16.4N 65.4 W with a strong MLC evident on radar rotating around that broad center for now. The shredder will rip it apart IMHO.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#639 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:23 pm

NDG wrote:We are finally seeing some pressures falling in the area, St Croix.
Good indication the LLC is finally getting going.

METAR for: TISX (St Croix/Rohlsen Arp, VI, US)
Text: TISX 101953Z 09022G29KT 6SM RA BR BKN015 OVC070 26/25 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 09029/1944 SLP115 P0000 T02610250
Temperature: 26.1°C ( 79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C ( 77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1011.9 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1011.5 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.3 m/s) gusting to 33 MPH (29 knots; 14.9 m/s)
Visibility: 6 sm ( 10 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1500 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA BR (moderate rain, mist)


This is indeed descent pressure falls sense recon was there.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#640 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:28 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:This is still moving due west, not sure the HWRF will verify.

That’s just expansion of the CDO and outflow. but the COC itself is tracking WNW.
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