ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

I’m still thinking it’s a broad elongated center near 16.4N 65.4 W with a strong MLC evident on radar rotating around that broad center for now. The shredder will rip it apart IMHO.

2pm was 16.6N/64.8W moving 18 mph. Based on current satellite that LLC is either on the SW of the big convection ball or is NE under that convection ball.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro likes my track.

Is your track north or south of Key West?

A track just south of Key West is no good for me, my marina is somewhat vulnerable to East winds. North or even a direct hit from the east I am well protected. I was fine but nervous with Elsa because our strongest winds were from the east.

It doesn't matter this far out. Ask me when it's about 12 hours away and I'll estimate whether it will go north or south of Key West. For now, I'm thinking north.

[eastcoastFL]

Still no Fred

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[AlphaToOmega]

Could this be Fred at the 8 PM advisory?

[Nimbus]

St Croix might be about 30 miles from the new center since surface pressures are dropping there.
This was modeled with the northern end of the elongated circulation becoming dominant.
There is likely to be some interaction with the eastern DR even if part of the circulation moves through the Mona Passage but no high mountains there. If it tracks just a little further south then it will hit the shredder.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the big picture, look how active the EPAC is thankfully the EPAC is in overdrive which is still keeping the Atlantic and PTC 6 in check:

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at the big picture, look how active the EPAC is thankfully the EPAC is in overdrive which is still keeping the Atlantic and PTC 6 in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/502XYS8c/goes16-vis-swir-atlpac-wide.gif

Not for long, though

[ElectricStorm]

Is there supposed to be another recon going out today?

[floridasun78]

look like issue going in eastern gulf not for south fl we may still get bad weather but not hurr

[Category5Kaiju]

Looking at the big picture, look how active the EPAC is thankfully the EPAC is in overdrive which is still keeping the Atlantic and PTC 6 in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/502XYS8c/goes16-vis-swir-atlpac-wide.gif

Storms in the EPAC have been weak though

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Is there supposed to be another recon going out today?

According to the flight schedule, there should've been an Air Force flight taking off roughly an hour ago. Not sure why it hasn't yet, but hopefully it's nothing serious.

[aspen]

Still no Fred

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

I don’t know why they’re keeping this at 30 kt when recon supported 35 kt, maybe 40 kt.

[AlphaToOmega]

Is the NHC being more conservative with naming systems this year than last year, or has the NHC always been this conservative?

[ElectricStorm]

Is there supposed to be another recon going out today?

According to the flight schedule, there should've been an Air Force flight taking off roughly an hour ago. Not sure why it hasn't yet, but hopefully it's nothing serious.

Hopefully it's nothing serious. I was gonna say if there is another plane that goes out I would guess NHC is waiting for recon confirmation before upgrading it.

[Cat5James]

look like issue going in eastern gulf not for south fl we may still get bad weather but not hurr

Says who? Multiple 12z models depicted a direct hit on SE Florida

[Category5Kaiju]

Is the NHC being more conservative with naming systems this year than last year, or has the NHC always been this conservative?

No, if I recall PTC Barry and Isaias took a bit to be named

[Jr0d]

It doesn't matter this far out. Ask me when it's about 12 hours away and I'll estimate whether it will go north or south of Key West. For now, I'm thinking north.

North is good for me. Obviously way too far out to make a reasonable guess.

As what seems to be the case with most storms approaching Florida from the east, we will have to see what impact Hispaniola has. If it makes it past intact, this favors a further north track, if it gets shredded by the mountains then we will have a much weaker system or even open wave further south...though it appears the models want to pull the storm back together around the Florida Straits in this scenario.

Also with only one short recon mission, there is not much data to be added. Missions every 6 hours begin tonight, that extra data will not be helpful for the models until Wednesday night...so for mine and the rest of Florida's interests we wont have a good forecast until late tomorrow or Thursday, though I think it is safe to say Florida will be impacted.

[zhukm29]

Looking at the big picture, look how active the EPAC is thankfully the EPAC is in overdrive which is still keeping the Atlantic and PTC 6 in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/502XYS8c/goes16-vis-swir-atlpac-wide.gif

The EPAC is currently underperforming though, with storms that have struggled a lot, even if the number of named storms is higher than normal. I don't think a few struggling tropical storms in the EPAC is really hindering PTC 6 that much - in fact, I'd argue that the state of the EPAC doesn't bode well for what we might see from the ATL later on, especially when most of the EPAC systems this year have busted due to unfavorable conditions. Seasons like these often correspond to a more active Atlantic, but we'll see.

[NDG]

Clear LLC on the northern edge of the convection, MLC is to the south of it so it is not stacked for sure.

[alienstorm]

Recon en route should be there ~7-7:30 PM