ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Cool graphic to generally show the situation for PTC6 for those wondering why this particular GA island is often referred to as Shredderola.

 http://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1425279238014476288

[psyclone]

Jello doesn't fear the shredder. As long as a disturbance popping convection emerges...we have potential over warm water in August on a trajectory where it could become an issue.

[toad strangler]

Jello doesn't fear the shredder. As long as a disturbance popping convection emerges...we have potential over warm water in August on a trajectory where it could become an issue.

Completely agree

[Evenstar]

Fred won't be Fred post Hispaniola

Fred's a bit cocky though. He may be too sexy for that. Granted he may take a while to recover if that happens, but HWRF was showing that was a possibility once closer to S. Florida.

I see what you did there.

[toad strangler]

HI FRED

 http://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1425286701727981568

[ElectricStorm]

Listed as TS Fred on NHC page now

[Stormybajan]

Sooo, after over a months break, we have life again in the Atlantic. Hello TS Fred

[Category5Kaiju]

Hello there, Fred. It took you like 42 days since Elsa to form, you're late.

[NDG]

New forecast from NHC keeps it as a TS through Hispaniola and after tracking through Hispaniola.

[toad strangler]

New forecast from NHC keeps it as a TS through Hispaniola and after tracking through Hispaniola.

And the very S tip of the FL peninsula and most of the FL Keys touch the 3 day cone

[chaser1]

New forecast from NHC keeps it as a TS through Hispaniola and after tracking through Hispaniola.

What?? I hadn't seen that yet. Still, this storm is just too small and fragile to sustain a path over "the rock". Unless the updated track pushes Fred west and it pulls "an Elsa" cutting through the Windward Passage??

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like NHC thinks shear will affect it for a bit after clearing the islands but if it gets in the gulf the conditions will be much better.

[NDG]

[SFLcane]

What a discussion Stacy.

After emerging back over water by late
Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time
period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected
to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to
be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much
weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust
strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical-
dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength
during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure
after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued
disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind
flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from
favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given
these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly
higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus
models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models.

[Woofde]

New forecast from NHC keeps it as a TS through Hispaniola and after tracking through Hispaniola.

What?? I hadn't seen that yet. Still, this storm is just too small and fragile to sustain a path over "the rock". Unless the updated track pushes Fred west and it pulls "an Elsa" cutting through the Windward Passage??

It's goes over the Northern Coast of Hispaniola which doesn't feature much elevation. Any wobble south to the mountains could destroy it though.

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[caneseddy]

New forecast from NHC keeps it as a TS through Hispaniola and after tracking through Hispaniola.

What?? I hadn't seen that yet. Still, this storm is just too small and fragile to sustain a path over "the rock". Unless the updated track pushes Fred west and it pulls "an Elsa" cutting through the Windward Passage??

The discussion states they expect it to go through Mona Passage and pass through eastern part of Hispaniola avoiding the mountains in the middle of the island

[caneseddy]

What a discussion Stacy.

After emerging back over water by late
Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time
period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected
to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to
be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much
weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust
strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical-
dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength
during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure
after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued
disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind
flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from
favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given
these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly
higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus
models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models.

As always a great and insightful discussion by Stewart. And what you boldest is key which is what the models have been indicating..once it approaches the Straits and SE Florida/Keys it should intensify. How much is the question

[Chemmers]

Pink overshooting cloud top near the centre now

[Woofde]

If Fred does stick to NHC's center line it would be going down a path with SSTs of 30-31 degrees. If atmospheric conditions cooperate, things could go wild.

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[sweetpea]

https://i.imgur.com/86XveLP.png

Geez, puts me just about in the bullseye. We have had so much rain here!