ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Kind of looks like Fred the duck or do-do bird
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/j28yfPVF/duck.jpg [/url]

Very much reminds me of Elsa with the structure and location. Has that massive blob trailing the partially exposed center.

This is Elsa’s little brother Fred.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Fred really hurt its chances last night by not gaining any latitude and going due west.

A direct trek over most of Hispaniola is a certainty. I'd be surprised if it managed to be a tropical cyclone on the other side.

Regeneration in the Gulf appears probable.

[Category5Kaiju]

Kind of looks like Fred the duck or do-do bird
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/j28yfPVF/duck.jpg [/url]

Very much reminds me of Elsa with the structure and location. Has that massive blob trailing the partially exposed center.

Also a bit of Matthew, Laura, and Isaias; the dual blob society!

[MGC]

Fred is gonna be dead soon....once his low level circulation hits them mountains. I expect a new center to form system moves away from Hispaniola. Could have track implications depending on where center reforms.....MGC

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred recently has really wrapped convection around the center. It’s doing what Elsa could not in the GA

[AutoPenalti]

Fred is gonna be dead soon....once his low level circulation hits them mountains. I expect a new center to form system moves away from Hispaniola. Could have track implications depending on where center reforms.....MGC

The LLC has been barely hanging on since the start, as long as the MLC is robust and keeps firing convection as it slows down past the mountains, it should redevelop an LLC fairly quickly.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred is gonna be dead soon....once his low level circulation hits them mountains. I expect a new center to form system moves away from Hispaniola. Could have track implications depending on where center reforms.....MGC

Nah he gonna be on life support after that island wreck but he will pull through. Yeah the llc will most likely collapse or decouple.

[BobHarlem]

Fred is gonna be dead soon....once his low level circulation hits them mountains. I expect a new center to form system moves away from Hispaniola. Could have track implications depending on where center reforms.....MGC

Nah he gonna be on life support after that island wreck but he will pull through. Yeah the llc will most likely collapse or decouple.

How sure are we that it's actually going to wreck? if the MLC Were aligned I'd probably agree right out, but I do think there's a chance it gets tugged some wsw.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[wxman57]

One thing the models agree with is the big picture across the Gulf Sun/Mon. Upper low near SE TX and upper High east of SE FL. Between the two, SW winds aloft 25-30 kts over the top of Fred as it moves up the eastern Gulf. Not a recipe for a strong storm. Shear increases as it nears landfall. Lots of dry air to its west, too.

[SFLcane]

One thing the models agree with is the big picture across the Gulf Sun/Mon. Upper low near SE TX and upper High east of SE FL. Between the two, SW winds aloft 25-30 kts over the top of Fred as it moves up the eastern Gulf. Not a recipe for a strong storm. Shear increases as it nears landfall. Lots of dry air to its west, too.

Clearing the path for what is a worrisome 95L.

[wxman57]

One thing the models agree with is the big picture across the Gulf Sun/Mon. Upper low near SE TX and upper High east of SE FL. Between the two, SW winds aloft 25-30 kts over the top of Fred as it moves up the eastern Gulf. Not a recipe for a strong storm. Shear increases as it nears landfall. Lots of dry air to its west, too.

Clearing the path for what is a worrisome 95L.

I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

[ElectricStorm]

Another thing to consider is that if it keeps going south of track, it'll have a nice long track over Cuba and then it'll REALLY struggle to get going again. The only place that looks good for reintensification is the gulf. Hopefully it won't have enough time to get strong.

[aspen]

NHC still expects this to survive Hispaniola and eventually intensify once again within the Gulf, due to an upper level anticyclone lowering shear after the 48-60 hour range.

[toad strangler]

One thing the models agree with is the big picture across the Gulf Sun/Mon. Upper low near SE TX and upper High east of SE FL. Between the two, SW winds aloft 25-30 kts over the top of Fred as it moves up the eastern Gulf. Not a recipe for a strong storm. Shear increases as it nears landfall. Lots of dry air to its west, too.

Clearing the path for what is a worrisome 95L.

I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

hmmm

[SFLcane]

One thing the models agree with is the big picture across the Gulf Sun/Mon. Upper low near SE TX and upper High east of SE FL. Between the two, SW winds aloft 25-30 kts over the top of Fred as it moves up the eastern Gulf. Not a recipe for a strong storm. Shear increases as it nears landfall. Lots of dry air to its west, too.

Clearing the path for what is a worrisome 95L.

I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.

Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.

[gatorcane]

Stepping back and looking at the big picture, Fred is so tiny you can barely make him out. With the convection firing off to the north over the Atlantic, really just looks like a strong wave axis with an embedded low. No concern from me on Fred still, just a typical weak storm / wave which can be expected this time of year. Rain chances increase for Florida for the weekend.

[captainbarbossa19]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/qLE2UXd.gif

It's hard to tell, but it sure looks like the convection is still moving west. It may have a slight north component to it now. Also, I think it is outside of the cone from last night now. If not, it is really close.

[AlphaToOmega]

[Shell Mound]

I think the mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should be sufficient to destroy the relatively weak mid-level circulation and thus cripple future chances.