ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

That naked swirl that's now just west of the Inagua Island looks like it is the true center now that we have some visual images. A seriously doubt we will see a center relocation....that is the center, if it dies off so does Fred.

Shear is clearly an issue and will be a major inhibitor today. As in the NHC discussion, the EURO is hinting at shear letting up tomorrow, until/if this happens Fred will.be fighting for survival.

EURO also called for a more northerly track... Let’s see if that swirl can build convection. I’m surprised NHC not even a small chance mention of possible degenerating into a remnant low. They have confidence!

[Dean4Storms]

Que the Sanford and Son theme music for Fred….….He’s had that big one and on life support!

[NDG]

That naked swirl that's now just west of the Inagua Island looks like it is the true center now that we have some visual images. A seriously doubt we will see a center relocation....that is the center, if it dies off so does Fred.

Shear is clearly an issue and will be a major inhibitor today. As in the NHC discussion, the EURO is hinting at shear letting up tomorrow, until/if this happens Fred will.be fighting for survival.

EURO also called for a more northerly track... Let’s see if that swirl can build convection. I’m surprised NHC not even a small chance mention of possible degenerating into a remnant low. They have confidence!

According to the Recon it looks to be further south than that, even a little more south than what I had thought.

[Blown Away]

Recon should find a weak closed circulation where I placed the X, or approximately.

https://i.imgur.com/RSK1pA7.jpg

Agree, trust your analysis more than mine.

Your red X is outside the NHC cone.

[Frank P]

Recon should find a weak closed circulation where I placed the X, or approximately.

https://i.imgur.com/RSK1pA7.jpg

Vis sat image loops suggest that weak closed circulation is moving WNW at the moment..

[Dean4Storms]

That swirl is not the surface circulation according to recon obs. A hair further south.

[NDG]

One thing for sure pressure is way up to near 1012 mb, but it still has a weak closed circulation.

URNT15 KNHC 121134
AF307 0606A FRED HDOB 14 20210812
112430 2043N 07348W 8429 01593 //// +160 //// 343001 001 010 000 01
112500 2041N 07347W 8429 01593 //// +161 //// 195000 001 009 000 01
112530 2040N 07345W 8429 01593 //// +158 //// 206004 006 010 000 01
112600 2039N 07344W 8430 01592 //// +156 //// 198005 006 009 000 01
112630 2038N 07343W 8429 01593 0127 +160 +153 195008 010 010 000 00
112700 2037N 07342W 8431 01591 0127 +160 +150 210012 013 011 000 00
112730 2036N 07340W 8430 01592 0127 +161 +150 208012 013 013 000 00
112800 2035N 07339W 8429 01593 0127 +162 +154 202012 012 016 000 00
112830 2033N 07338W 8432 01590 0127 +161 +158 183014 014 017 000 00
112900 2032N 07337W 8428 01596 0128 +160 +158 193014 015 017 000 00
112930 2031N 07335W 8430 01592 0129 +160 +158 198015 017 018 000 00
113000 2030N 07334W 8430 01593 //// +161 //// 200016 017 018 000 01
113030 2029N 07333W 8424 01597 //// +159 //// 206016 016 020 000 01
113100 2028N 07332W 8431 01592 //// +154 //// 200014 016 020 000 01
113130 2027N 07330W 8431 01592 0126 +162 +158 202014 015 023 000 01
113200 2026N 07329W 8433 01591 //// +153 //// 198015 015 025 001 01
113230 2025N 07328W 8433 01591 //// +158 //// 195014 016 023 000 01
113300 2024N 07327W 8427 01596 //// +157 //// 199013 014 021 001 05
113330 2022N 07326W 8429 00402 //// +148 //// 186012 013 024 001 01
113400 2021N 07325W 8429 00634 //// +147 //// 185014 015 024 001 01
$$

[Frank P]

That swirl is not the surface circulation according to recon obs.

Boy on the vis sat image loops it’s hard for me to discern a specific center in the area noted by recon… but they are the guys who are in the know!

[NDG]

[aspen]

That naked swirl that's now just west of the Inagua Island looks like it is the true center now that we have some visual images. A seriously doubt we will see a center relocation....that is the center, if it dies off so does Fred.

Shear is clearly an issue and will be a major inhibitor today. As in the NHC discussion, the EURO is hinting at shear letting up tomorrow, until/if this happens Fred will.be fighting for survival.

EURO also called for a more northerly track... Let’s see if that swirl can build convection. I’m surprised NHC not even a small chance mention of possible degenerating into a remnant low. They have confidence!

According to the Recon it looks to be further south than that, even a little more south than what I had thought.

https://i.imgur.com/o7gSTpV.png

Still north of the 5am cone. If it manages to rebuild convection, it’ll have way less land interaction to limit it, but it’ll likely make landfall in SFL and not the Gulf Coast.

[wxman57]

That swirl is not the surface circulation according to recon obs. A hair further south.

I noticed that. Satellite indicates the swirl at 21.3N but recon finding nothing that far north. Perhaps the center recon is finding is not at the surface, as they don't measure surface winds.

[NDG]

Visible satellite loop agrees with the recon's fix.
I don't know what satellite loop everyone else was watching

[wxman57]

Visible satellite loop agrees with the recon's fix.
I don't know what satellite loop everyone else was watching

https://i.imgur.com/GLLfv9N.gif

It is a tad north of that "X" at 21N. Still north of FL center.

[TallyTracker]

Maybe the disparity is due to the center being elongated somewhat.

[toad strangler]

Fred has all his clothes blown off by those mountains. Like Charlie Brown on the mound except Fred's boxers went as well. I'm surprised there is still a circulation evident.

[NDG]

Dropsonde shows pressure way up to 1013mb, it pretty much has to start from scratch, lol.

[NDG]

Visible satellite loop agrees with the recon's fix.
I don't know what satellite loop everyone else was watching

https://i.imgur.com/GLLfv9N.gif

It is a tad north of that "X" at 21N. Still north of FL center.

Yeah, I had intially had thought closer to 21N but not quite, surface reports might agree with the recon's fix.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm WSW of Inagua island is a lot further north than I imagined last night, LLC's in better shape than I would have thought too. Still could be some surprises coming I gather.

[grapealcoholic]

center is here

[Weatherboy1]

Fred is generating some impressive convection … too bad it’s in a band about 200 miles to the east. LOL. Going to have to start doing so just a wee bit closer to the center if it wants to hold together