ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Man Fred looks bad. No signs of convection over the center, it’s running into Cuba, and the vorticity is spinning down. Fred got hit by a train, stumbled out of the hospital a day later, and is stumbling across the train tracks of the Cuba express. The shredder lives up to its name.

Will see, the tendency on this board is too kill them off to fast and spin them up too fast, patience is required in the tropics.

[Jr0d]

The same models were too bullish with Fred’s short-term development for the most part. The ULL has progressed somewhat more slowly than forecast. Given the presence of westerly shear and the absence of a LLC, Fred is unlikely to regenerate in the Gulf of Mexico. I don’t believe there will be much of a mid-level vortex left that could serve as a locus for the development of a new LLC. For all practical purposes Fred is dead. Models should not be trusted at this stage.

Not seeing the towers getting sheared like they were yesterday morning.

Land interaction seems to be the current major inhibitor.

I thought it was dead yesterday morning and it surprised me. Not going to write it off until it crosses the gulf stream.

Still some pretty strong shear over the "LLC" of the storm. Both deep layer shear maps and satellite show 20+ kits of southwesterly shear there. The blob to the south Cuba is in a much more conducive shear environment (10-15 kts).

I'm not saying there is not any shear, however it appears the towers that do fire are not getting sheared as quickly as yesterday morning. One of the pro mets also commented that the shears is slightly less than yesterday.

Regardless, there is not much there. If Fred was not already named, it would not be a classified system. I would be surprised if it makes a comeback today.

[aspen]

Someone made an analogy yesterday of Fred losing all its convection like Charlie Brown on the mound. Today, Fred is like that, except Charlie Brown proceeds to walk in front of and gets hit by Snoopy’s flying doghouse — in other words, Cuba.

[Frank P]

Someone made an analogy yesterday of Fred losing all its convection like Charlie Brown on the mound. Today, Fred is like that, except Charlie Brown proceeds to walk in front of and gets hit by Snoopy’s flying doghouse — in other words, Cuba.

Looks to me that the center of Fred is inland in Cuba based on the vis sat image loops, would not expect that naked swirl to survive a trip thru Cuba, best he up pull up soon or head down south pretty fast, or a new center form… these systems always have a way to surprise us but Fred better start pulling out his magic tricks soon

[tolakram]

Landfall IMO.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[wxman57]

I think that the center will eventually reform farther north. Or, not.

[Frank P]

I think that the center will eventually reform farther north. Or, not.

Fwiw 06z HMON and HWRF runs also kinda agree with you…

[cane5]

I think that the center will eventually reform farther north. Or, not.

Looks like those storms to the south are moving up north near the center of Fred. Could be a illusion.

[tailgater]

LLC is mostly inland now and moving westward but the weakened center still has a decent structure and this portion of Cuba isn’t too destructive to a weak system. I think it will likely look better this afternoon as it’s inflow will be tapping into warm heat content south of Cuba as well as the warm Waters to the north.
The mid level convection might compete with this moisture flow to keep Fred on life support though.

[FLpanhandle91]

LLC is mostly inland now and moving westward but the weakened center still has a decent structure and this portion of Cuba isn’t too destructive to a weak system. I think it will likely look better this afternoon as it’s inflow will be tapping into warm heat content south of Cuba as well as the warm Waters to the north.
The mid level convection might compete with this moisture flow to keep Fred on life support though.

The area of Cuba the LLC is moving into is actually quite hilly.

[GCANE]

CAPE gradually increasing W Cuba and St of FL.
Will setoff popups over Cuba this afternoon and enhance moisture convergence into Fred.
Chances slowly increasing for Fred to make a come back.

[tailgater]

LLC is mostly inland now and moving westward but the weakened center still has a decent structure and this portion of Cuba isn’t too destructive to a weak system. I think it will likely look better this afternoon as it’s inflow will be tapping into warm heat content south of Cuba as well as the warm Waters to the north.
The mid level convection might compete with this moisture flow to keep Fred on life support though.

The area of Cuba the LLC is moving into is actually quite hilly.

https://i.imgur.com/41yuZLH.png

Yeah I was thinking the mountain near Trinidad was farther west but daytime heating will fire off a large area of convention near the center today.

[TallyTracker]

Maybe that crazy HWRF run having Fred zig-zag around Cuba wasn’t so crazy after all…lol

Definitely starting to look like mainly a rain event here in the Panhandle. Glad to see that.

[MGC]

Fred appears to be on life support or perhaps the pathetic swirl over Cuba is a ghost. Odds of Fred surviving are slim. Still a chance that Fred could pull a move like his cousin from 1979, Fredrick. Fredrick took a similar track across Hispaniola and Cuba only to emerge in the Gulf and explode. Lets hope that is not the case here.....MGC

[tolakram]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

[GCANE]

Looking a VIS Sat, CoC seems to be 22N 78.5W. Inland Cuba.
CAPE has suddenly jumped to 3500 and setoff a tower.
Stay tuned if this pushes into the water.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Really interesting to watch the exposed circulation here. Maybe the HWRF was more or less correct here. I absolutely don't understand how the LLC will survive pushing west across Cuba and the hills and mountains. I gave it 48 hrs yesterday but half way through, it's surprising to see the convection firing and still having a circ in this location. CAPE increasing and somehow if the LLC holds together or slides offshore near Trinidad....IF....well the shear looks to be much less ( just outside the ULL influence) there. The steering looks to looks to keep pushing it over land though. The ULL over Fl is getting pinched and still retrograding slowly W. Certainly weakening the shear vector as forecast.

[GCANE]

CAPE rapidly increasing at the tower.
Now at 4000

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Moving WNW and should be off Cuba into the Water soon, high cape and pro graphic lift aiding in convective blow up over Cuba; instability and cape should allow additional convective blow ups offshore. NHC forecast of 50 mph TS west of Florida with heavy rains overspreading peninsula very reasonable, biggest impact flooding to Florida peninsula but some winds may bring down trees on Saturated ground near the coast.

[jlauderdal]

HWRF has this going south of Cuba and then coming back.

East, west, south, north, hurricane, dissipation. The HWRF covers all the bases, what a disaster that thing is.