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ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Shell Mound wrote:High-resolution visible imagery indicates outflow boundaries in the eastern semicircle, so Grace is almost certainly less organised than it appears to be.
What?
If Grace is indeed organising fairly rapidly, do you know why the latest HWRF has trended toward a much weaker system in the short term vs. the previous run?
HWRF at least on an individual run to run basis isn’t reliable to the point where one could conclude that an improvement in organization would lead to a more aggressive HWRF or visa versa at least without Recon.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:High-resolution visible imagery indicates outflow boundaries in the eastern semicircle, so Grace is almost certainly less organised than it appears to be.
Recon so far has verified this.
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1426607325910114304
The HWRF has suggested that Grace’s centre will pass over Barbuda around 06:00 UTC tomorrow, but so far the LLC appears to be well to the south.
Based on this, I think that Grace is very likely to follow Fred’s path and cross over the most mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Expect southward shifts.
The HWRF has suggested that Grace’s centre will pass over Barbuda around 06:00 UTC tomorrow, but so far the LLC appears to be well to the south.
Based on this, I think that Grace is very likely to follow Fred’s path and cross over the most mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Expect southward shifts.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
TXNT22 KNES 141809
TCSNTL
A. 07L (GRACE)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 16.3N
D. 58.7W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED >1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT=3.0. SOME SHEAR DUE TO FAST FORWARD MOTION
CONTINUES AS CENTER IS ON E EDGE OF COLDEST CONVECTION. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT LLCC LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON
TCSNTL
A. 07L (GRACE)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 16.3N
D. 58.7W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED >1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT=3.0. SOME SHEAR DUE TO FAST FORWARD MOTION
CONTINUES AS CENTER IS ON E EDGE OF COLDEST CONVECTION. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT LLCC LOCATION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1426607325910114304
The HWRF has suggested that Grace’s centre will pass over Barbuda around 06:00 UTC tomorrow, but so far the LLC appears to be well to the south.
Based on this, I think that Grace is very likely to follow Fred’s path and cross over the most mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Expect southward shifts.
12Z HWRF has a very similar path to Fred, but goes South of Cuba after hitting DR...
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think Grace's LLC is up under the convection, around 16.5 to 17N.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Further north than most model inits...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:I think Grace's LLC is up under the convection, around 16.5 to 17N.
https://i.imgur.com/UJYLCLf.png
I'm glad recon is hitting her early like this, though I guess it's not really that early. We get good, reliable data into the models.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Further north than most model inits...
How far so far?
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Further north than most model inits...
16.5°N would actually be farther south than most of the models suggested by 21:00 UTC. HWRF, GFS, and HMON were all a bit farther north by now.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shell Mound wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Further north than most model inits...
16.5°N would actually be farther south than most of the models suggested by 21:00 UTC. HWRF, GFS, and HMON were all a bit farther north by now.
Didn’t HWRF had this at 15.9 by now? This is almost close to 17N...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Shell Mound wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Further north than most model inits...
16.5°N would actually be farther south than most of the models suggested by 21:00 UTC. HWRF, GFS, and HMON were all a bit farther north by now.
Didn’t HWRF had this at 15.9 by now? This is almost close to 17N...
The 12Z HWRF showed Grace at 17°N by 21:00 UTC. Currently the centre appears to be no farther north than 16.5°N and may even be a bit farther south.
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
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jaxfladude
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Uh oh! Or ?wxman57 wrote:I'm afraid Grace is not going to be destroyed by Bahamas shear. Hurricane north-central Gulf next Saturday.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
saved radar loop
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Category5Kaiju wrote:Blown Away wrote:Not impossible, but somewhat rare for a named system to move from central Atlantic N of PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba and make it to the Central GOM. If Grace moves S or through the islands it is much more likely.
Hurricane 8 in 1933 did manage to do that
Well, 88 years ago would absolutely fit the definition of "rare"!
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Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon still isn’t checking the main convective blob.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:Further north than most model inits...
Another one for the shredder. Ridiculous year thus far.
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Further north than most model inits...
Another one for the shredder. Ridiculous year thus far.
It's not going to go into the shredder if it goes further North, thus missing the mountains....
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