ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[sma10]

The confirmation bias ricocheting throughout this thread is stunning.

[Yellow Evan]

Further north than most model inits...

Another one for the shredder. Ridiculous year thus far.

It's not going to go into the shredder if it goes further North, thus missing the mountains....

Further north than what? The 18z suite has shifted way to the south and per recon it's not exactly gaining too much latitude.

[IcyTundra]

Too early to write off Grace completely imo.

[lsuhurricane]

Another one for the shredder. Ridiculous year thus far.

Can we take a pause with the definitive posts? Seems very early to take a stand on steering.

[tolakram]

Here's the latest shear analysis. If nothing else, in an environment like this, where would one expect the MLC to be in relation to the LLC?

[chaser1]

Not impossible, but somewhat rare for a named system to move from central Atlantic N of PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba and make it to the Central GOM. If Grace moves S or through the islands it is much more likely.

Hurricane 8 in 1933 did manage to do that

Well, 88 years ago would absolutely fit the definition of "rare"!

If I were a betting man, I'd place my chips on Grace going over some of the Greater Antilles rather then north of them. I could see a close pass along or just south of them too. I'm not as sure how much grace the Islands will extend to her in terms of leaving her intact enough to pose a hurricane threat to the N. GOM.

[tolakram]

Here's the mid shear analysis. Keep in mind these are not perfect products.

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean, what are the chances Grace is going to follow the same exact path as Fred and die over Hispaniola? Imho that's a pretty targeted and specific path to take, and I would think that different storms that occur in succession would at least have some variation in their tracks as the most likely statistical outcome.

[aspen]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

I mean, what are the chances Grace is going to follow the same exact path as Fred and die over Hispaniola? Imho that's a pretty targeted and specific path to take, and I would think that different storms that occur in succession would at least have some variation in their tracks as the most likely statistical outcome.

It seems now that, if anything, the LLC is even farther south - maybe closer to 15.0N? Could this open up the door to a Dean-like track?

[cycloneye]

I mean, what are the chances Grace is going to follow the same exact path as Fred and die over Hispaniola? Imho that's a pretty targeted and specific path to take, and I would think that different storms that occur in succession would at least have some variation in their tracks as the most likely statistical outcome.

It seems now that, if anything, the LLC is even farther south - maybe closer to 15.0N? Could this open up the door to a Dean-like track?

There has not been a VDM?

[tolakram]

[Category5Kaiju]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

How do we know Grace is shredder food though? There's still a lot of uncertainty in the track, and shifts north or south could make it less likely to hit the island. Plus the EPAC is predicted to have not much activity as the long range models indicate now, so this is what should be expected for a La Nina year; it's nothing abnormal?

[ConvergenceZone]

Another one for the shredder. Ridiculous year thus far.

It's not going to go into the shredder if it goes further North, thus missing the mountains....

Further north than what? The 18z suite has shifted way to the south and per recon it's not exactly gaining too much latitude.

Basically if it misses the mountains to the north or the south it's not going into the shredder is basically what I'm saying....If it threads the needle exactly and then hits the mountains, then yes, it will be shredded, but there's still a very good chance it won't thread that needle...

[Nimbus]

Flight level winds only near 35 Knots so it might blow through without causing much damage.
From 15.6N WNW might miss Hispaniola?

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/6KgeQXx.png

Did Recon find something?

[aspen]

How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

How do we know Grace is shredder food though? There's still a lot of uncertainty in the track, and shifts north or south could make it less likely to hit the island. Plus the EPAC is predicted to have not much activity as the long range models indicate now, so this is what should be expected for a La Nina year; it's nothing abnormal?

If the center isn’t in that convective mass — which we won’t know for certain unless recon actually checks it out — then it’s probably gonna go in the shredder. So strange that now twice in a row, two AEW storms have found themselves heading to the same target.

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/6KgeQXx.png

Did Recon find something?

Found the (or an) LLC in the same place, and weak.

[chaser1]

Here's the latest shear analysis. If nothing else, in an environment like this, where would one expect the MLC to be in relation to the LLC?

https://i.imgur.com/vYNgL5O.png

I think there's something more to it though. On it's own merit one would look at the shear analysis and assume that the LLC be well embedded within CDO and more or less aligned with the MLC. Looking at high definition visible satellite though, can you fairly easily project where the LLC is? I'm just not seeing enough low level cloud elements to be able to make that case. Therefore, I think the problem is less shear related and more a result of a particularly dry lower layer that is preventing a cohesive vertical structure from maintaining itself at (or just above) the surface. Though net shear would appear to not be the primary culprit, the fast west motion isn't helping.

[AutoPenalti]

I still think Grace is suffering from structural problems.