ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

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Kohlecane
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#441 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:25 pm

when are they gonna travel towards 16.5N and 60.5W area lol
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#442 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:30 pm

My early guess for this is that we're going to see a remnant low entering the gulf, with a chance to so something there. Still very early of course, but that's just my personal opinion.

If this ends up in the gulf I think it will be a big problem
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#443 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:34 pm

Kohlecane wrote:when are they gonna travel towards 16.5N and 60.5W area lol

Never, because the mission just finished.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#444 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:37 pm

Wouldn't rule out Grace staying weaker initially and tracking south of Cuba (remember Laura?). Lots of track uncertainty depending on how well Grace organizes over the next 24-36 hrs. Grace will be a problem. Wish I could just issue a 5-day forecast like the NHC vs. a 7-day.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#445 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:37 pm

Kohlecane wrote:when are they gonna travel towards 16.5N and 60.5W area lol

They aren’t
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#446 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:38 pm

Or the 1900 Galveston hurricane?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#447 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:42 pm

aspen wrote:How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.

EPAC did have the MJO over it while it was still ENSO neutral with warm coastal waters but yes otherwise it is weird how much activity it is seeing. I am actually worried for the Atlantic if it ramps up to the levels of EPAC in the coming months...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#448 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:45 pm

If grace misses the islands, north or south, it spells trouble.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#449 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:45 pm

aspen wrote:How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.


Because it's August 14th
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#450 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:50 pm

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#451 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:50 pm

weeniepatrol wrote:
aspen wrote:How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.


Because it's August 14th


It's simply mesmerizing that we go through this year after year after year :D
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#452 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:51 pm

Clear strong vorticity just E of Barbuda near 17.6N moving @WNW. Seems recon estimating a LLC much farther S below 16N. Structurally Grace doesn’t appear in good shape. IMO I don’t think we will see anything but a remnant low go 20+ mph essentially due W from @16N per 18z all the way to the GOM, where it could come back to life.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#453 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:56 pm

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#454 Postby Cat5James » Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:59 pm

That blob of convection with Grace sure looks like its flying NW on IR the past hour... anyone else see that?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#455 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:01 pm

The good news is that we should be able to see any LLC soon, if convection continues to dissipate as we approach DMIN.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#456 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:01 pm

toad strangler wrote:
weeniepatrol wrote:
aspen wrote:How on Earth is that the EPac is somehow doing better than the Atlantic? It should be favored right now, but Fred and Grace are both disorganized Shredder food, and somehow the EPac managed to produce a second Cat 4.


Because it's August 14th


It's simply mesmerizing that we go through this year after year after year :D


Right?

Meanwhile, current look of Grace, resembles pretty much what the 12z GFS suggests we would see this afternoon. The same GFS run, BTW that brings TS winds to PR and DR, borderline hurricane winds to the middle keys, and major hurricane to TX coast.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#457 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:Wouldn't rule out Grace staying weaker initially and tracking south of Cuba (remember Laura?). Lots of track uncertainty depending on how well Grace organizes over the next 24-36 hrs. Grace will be a problem. Wish I could just issue a 5-day forecast like the NHC vs. a 7-day.


Can you expound on this? More organized takes what track versus a more weak system?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#458 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:03 pm

tolakram wrote:The good news is that we should be able to see any LLC soon, if convection continues to dissipate as we approach DMIN.


TropicalTidbits has 18z position at 15.8N/59.9W which is way SW of convection and agree it should be exposed very soon as convection moves NW and LLC moving W.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#459 Postby ouragans » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:04 pm

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#460 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:05 pm

14, 16, 18, and the very top is 20N

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