2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Teban54]

Mid-August North Atlantic Global SST anomalies.

The square area between 80°W to 45°W & from 25°N to 50°N is WAY above normal, & the GoM is STILL boiling . . .
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/crw_ssta_natl.png

Interesting to see some small blue blobs have returned in the eastern MDR - I remember in early August the anomaly map showed the entire MDR being above-average. Of course, the difference is rather negligible and the water will be warm enough to support developments; this might also imply a relatively west-based season which is even worse.

[MarioProtVI]

A hyperactive season is virtually guaranteed unless something drastic happens.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427361108961210376
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427361802334179334
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427362663911366664

Hyperactivity is based solely on seasonal ACE. Hyperactive seasons feature seasonal ACE of > 159.6 units (1991–2020 climatology). 2021 has a lot of work to do in order to become a hyperactive season. So far virtually every storm except Elsa has been very unimpressive in terms of intensity and in some cases one could even question its classification as a TS or stronger (i.e., Claudette, Danny, and Grace, none of which had FL winds supporting TS status). Of course, there have been a number of hyperactive seasons that did not take off until 20 August or later, but according to the models the AEJ and the TUTT should have weakened by now, but instead there are no evident indications of a change in the configuration, even through the end of August. If there are no signs of strong storms by the end of August I think people should already begin to contemplate a much less active season than many seasonal forecasts have indicated, especially in the realm of ACE.

Things will and almost always change quickly after August 20. We were in this same thought during 2017 and also 2019. I don’t understand why your such a negative Nancy on the season despite all indicators pointing to above average activity (and Grace has a decent shot at being the first major actually if it gets going). In a month I think it is very likely this post will age like milk.

[AutoPenalti]

A twist in the tale?

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1427652202605289477



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427655237909762049

[tolakram]

I don't see bearish, but I did see too much bullishness before. If seasonal forecasting was easy we wouldn't be wondering how busy the season is going to be.

[SFLcane]

CFS overall has an extremely suppressed September look.



Long-range GEFS is similarly hostile.



Either these forecasts are gonna bust or the seasonal forecasts.

[AlphaToOmega]

CFS overall has an extremely suppressed September look.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgy67ZjL/DD05460-E-06-C1-48-B0-B5-AB-417-B52-EB912-F.jpg

Long-range GEFS is similarly hostile.

https://i.postimg.cc/VNsZgyZj/69-CC229-C-B9-D5-48-F8-8-C34-9-A3-D0-D7-DC0-AC.png

Either these forecasts are gonna bust or the seasonal forecasts.

I would not trust the CFSv2. At one point, it was showing below-average wind shear in the East Pacific despite showing a La Nina.

[AlphaToOmega]

I could see how activity might slow down a little, but I cannot comprehend how the rest of August could be entirely shut down.

[Category5Kaiju]

CFS overall has an extremely suppressed September look.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgy67ZjL/DD05460-E-06-C1-48-B0-B5-AB-417-B52-EB912-F.jpg

Long-range GEFS is similarly hostile.

https://i.postimg.cc/VNsZgyZj/69-CC229-C-B9-D5-48-F8-8-C34-9-A3-D0-D7-DC0-AC.png

Either these forecasts are gonna bust or the seasonal forecasts.

Isn't that what an El Nino or +ENSO year would look like? 2021 if I am not mistaken has a -PDO and -PMM look, with -ENSO and a return to weak La Nina being a very real possibility; I am very confused honestly as to why the shear and precipitation anomalies forecasts are literally the opposite of what would be expected in a -ENSO,-PMM,-PDO year

[aspen]

CFS overall has an extremely suppressed September look.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgy67ZjL/DD05460-E-06-C1-48-B0-B5-AB-417-B52-EB912-F.jpg

Long-range GEFS is similarly hostile.

https://i.postimg.cc/VNsZgyZj/69-CC229-C-B9-D5-48-F8-8-C34-9-A3-D0-D7-DC0-AC.png

Either these forecasts are gonna bust or the seasonal forecasts.

CFS has been trash this year. No way we’re getting an El Niño shear pattern with a developing La Niña and a -PDO and -PMM. Maybe the African monsoon is contributing to some of the shear, but that doesn’t explain the Caribbean shear.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=epac&pkg=ashear&runtime=2021081700&fh=1

Oh.....ok, so this explains a lot of why the Cfv2 is so unfavorable for the Atlantic in September. Yeah, if we were in 1997 or 2015 then this would be believable. But we are not at all, so I don't buy it.

[SFLcane]

So far we haven't exactly had anything that indicates a super favorable year. Maybe we should stop ignoring those stability graphics lol.

I am skeptical that shear will verify though

[Category5Kaiju]

Whenever I feel an ounce of doubt about this season, I always re-read the indicators thread for 2017 and regain optimism that sooner rather than later we will find ourselves busy tracking storms.

[CyclonicFury]

It's quite possible Grace and Henri become hurricanes (especially Grace), which didn't seem too likely 2-3 days ago. We also just had a strong tropical storm hit Florida yesterday. The season seems pretty much on track to me. I imagine the MDR will get going in September. Late August hasn't done too much in the MDR in recent years, and the upcoming suppressed KW may result in a brief break in activity. ACE is still above normal.

[weeniepatrol]

It's quite possible Grace and Henri become hurricanes (especially Grace), which didn't seem too likely 2-3 days ago. We also just had a strong tropical storm hit Florida yesterday. The season seems pretty much on track to me. I imagine the MDR will get going in September. Late August hasn't done too much in the MDR in recent years, and the upcoming suppressed KW may result in a brief break in activity. ACE is still above normal.

voice of reason. three days until the bell rings

[AlphaToOmega]

Most of the SAL is north of the MDR, so I cannot see how the MDR would be affected.

[SFLcane]

It's quite possible Grace and Henri become hurricanes (especially Grace), which didn't seem too likely 2-3 days ago. We also just had a strong tropical storm hit Florida yesterday. The season seems pretty much on track to me. I imagine the MDR will get going in September. Late August hasn't done too much in the MDR in recent years, and the upcoming suppressed KW may result in a brief break in activity. ACE is still above normal.

Yeah it's really gonna come down to that first couple weeks in September. That's climo peak and with a CCKW then, there's no excuse. If that flops then we're in trouble. But there's time for now

[AxaltaRacing24]

So far we haven't exactly had anything that indicates a super favorable year. Maybe we should stop ignoring those stability graphics lol.

I am skeptical that shear will verify though

We have a chance at being 8/3/1 soon, and we could very well get more storms before September even starts. Is that not a big enough indicator?

[gatorcane]

The GFS shows a very active EPAC in the long-range = less active Atlantic

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS shows a very active EPAC in the long-range = less active Atlantic

Again, the GFS has been biased towards the EPac this year.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/BhsZt1bMnS0[/youtube]