ATL: IDA - Models

[catskillfire51]

Gotcha. This is why I think people need to be very cautious. This is giving people in Texas a false sense of security (not that I think it's coming here).

It seemed to pick up the current center, but there had to either be a relocation (a full 1.5 degrees north) or fighting for two centers. So far, it's even farther east...heading for Mobile?

Massive jump east at hour 60. What the hell is going on here?

I don't think it's that much further east, seems to still be headed to NOLA, just seems faster.

[Nederlander]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

False… weaker ridging

[SoupBone]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

Not at 72 hours.

[grapealcoholic]

This is going to be a megachonk run good lord lol

[Steve]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

False… weaker ridging

Still protects the penisula up through 72 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=72

[SoupBone]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

False… weaker ridging

Still protects the penisula up through 72 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=72

It's definitely still there, it's riding the edge.

[grapealcoholic]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

Not at 72 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/tphUpuk.png

Def stronger. Nose is much further into MS

[Keldeo1997]

Already 10 MB stronger then last run

[Nederlander]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

False… weaker ridging

Still protects the penisula up through 72 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=72

Yeah after looking closer at 500mb, I stand corrected.. it’s basically the same

[CrazyC83]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

Not at 72 hours.

Surface ridges don't steer cyclones. Need to look at the upper levels. It's stronger.

[catskillfire51]

Ridge is coming in stronger with 0z GFS

Not at 72 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/tphUpuk.png

Compare that to the previous run it does seem a bit stronger.

[Steve]

Grape is right. Look at the 594 height lines across northern GA @ 00Z where they were in SC at 18z.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS will actually end up being a decent bit west of 18z, even with a farther north starting point.

[Kazmit]

GFS is actually slightly further west than 18z closing in in LA

[Woofde]

The ridge is stronger on this run, but because the system is also stronger it moves on a very similar path. The biggest takeaway IMO is that this faster movement may not be a fluke. It matches pretty well with current actual observations.

[jaguars_22]

So since it started further north and now the ridge is stronger and the gfs has the history of undergoing ridges this def puts Texas in play

[SoupBone]

Right at the tip of Terrebonne Parish headed NW. That would clobber Houma/Thibodaux, Morgan City, then Lafayette as it heads NW.

[Steve]

GFS looks to be heading toward Terrebonne Parish (Cocodrie) and is still showing a western component heading toward the coast. It's not quite there at 90 hours, but it shows up at 957mb on TT.

Oh - 96 hours heading toward the coast with a decided western component. ICON didn't come in at this angle.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=96

[Kazmit]

Landfall

[Craters]

The 00Z GFS looks to be way NE. I don't get that. Anyone have the coordinates that it initialised on?

First LLC is around 16.3N 77.5W. The satellite image suggests the real center to be at least 1.5 degrees south of that.

Hey C. I was looking at some of the latitude comments earlier, and I just couldn't be sure. It's not like it's super elongated or anything, but I think there's a general broad turning overall as it's coming together. You could see some juice a little earlier on the IR. Regardless of any weak surface low, I feel like the real turning is north of 15.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

^^ I know that's somewhat in the mid-levels, but you can see the way everything is turning and would possibly consolidate in the next couple of days.

I agree, Steve, for what that's worth. Hard to tell for sure from the model plot, but the MSLP/10-m wind version does show the elongated "LLC," for lack of a better term right now. I'm not so sure that it's as far off as folks are thinking it might be...