ATL: IDA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:
Contact Hammy

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#541 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

Stronger and further west looks to be the trend on this run.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
grapealcoholic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#542 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

That approach angle is Bad when it comes to surge in and around NOLA
2 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#543 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

That would be a Gustav repeat pretty much.
1 likes   
Top
catskillfire51
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 480
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#544 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:07 pm

Looks to be Houma area if my geography is right. 969MB
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5276
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#545 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:08 pm

Back in hurricane conditions in Lafayette on the 00z GFS :oops:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5276
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#546 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:11 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:That would be a Gustav repeat pretty much.


More like a Hurricane Andrew approach and nearly identical pressure at landfall around 955mb
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#547 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:11 pm

Yeah so that ridge will definitely tell the tale of this story. It will mean the difference between a LA/TX landfall and a SELA landfall. Do they launch balloons to see how the ridge is holding up? I seem to remember them doing this ahead of a few systems.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#548 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:13 pm

00Z GEFS has a tight cluster east of the previous right off the tip of Cuba.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
catskillfire51
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 480
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#549 Postby catskillfire51 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:13 pm

SoupBone wrote:Yeah so that ridge will definitely tell the tale of this story. It will mean the difference between a LA/TX landfall and a SELA landfall. Do they launch balloons to see how the ridge is holding up? I seem to remember them doing this ahead of a few systems.


It seems the ridge is still collapsing at the same time, 99L is just getting there faster before it collapses. Was supposed to be on Tuesday but now it's getting to the coast sunday/monday
1 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#550 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:16 pm

catskillfire51 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Yeah so that ridge will definitely tell the tale of this story. It will mean the difference between a LA/TX landfall and a SELA landfall. Do they launch balloons to see how the ridge is holding up? I seem to remember them doing this ahead of a few systems.


It seems the ridge is still collapsing at the same time, 99L is just getting there faster before it collapses. Was supposed to be on Tuesday but now it's getting to the coast sunday/monday


I think offices in the Southeast need extra balloons. A stronger ridge definitely means farther west (notwithstanding the center issue). With a northern center, the difference between NOLA and SW LA, while a southern center the difference between SW LA and S TX.
3 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#551 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:21 pm

SoupBone wrote:00Z GEFS has a tight cluster east of the previous right off the tip of Cuba.


The operational was still near the eastern edge of that though. Still, we can't rule out impacts (or even landfall) even east of NOLA, nor can we in Texas right now.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Woofde
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:33 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#552 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:27 pm

The ensemble package once again trended faster and is clumped further north.ImageImageImage
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#553 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:28 pm

GEFS 90 Hours

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#554 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:31 pm

00Z CMC 84 Hours

Image
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9591
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#555 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:32 pm

GFS following the CMC's 12z with the next storm just off the Yucatan around 204h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=204
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9591
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#556 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:36 pm

Speaking of the Canadian, SELA Sunday night. Maybe Lafourche Parish over toward Grand Isle. But then it appears to come in around Terrebonne Bay 1am Monday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=102
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#557 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:38 pm

So the GEFS has basically honed in on central Louisiana.

Image
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#558 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:48 pm

Steve wrote:GFS following the CMC's 12z with the next storm just off the Yucatan around 204h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=204



I see that. Is that from an existing feature or does it just come to be?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#559 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:52 pm

I'd think if there was an advisory map right now, it would have an H just east of Cameron, LA with an intensity of 85-95 kt.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1885
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#560 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:54 pm

If the models keep trending east in the short term, Key West could get some significant weather from this.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests