ATL: IDA - Models

[Craters]

In looking at all of the available 00Z global models on TropicalTidbits right now, I honestly don't think that I've ever seen such a tight cluster of landfall locations in the absence of a well-defined, initialized COC. And so far from landfall, timewise, on top of that.

I definitely don't understand what's going on.

[CrazyC83]

The ASCAT-B pass actually has a decent center (elongated but almost a TD) at 13.9N 78.3W. That would throw off everything.

[Steve]

GFS following the CMC's 12z with the next storm just off the Yucatan around 204h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=204

I see that. Is that from an existing feature or does it just come to be?

Looks like it comes off Columbia which would probably mean a heat-low interacting with a piece of a wave passing by.

[Shell Mound]

The GFS’s simulated IR presentation certainly suggests relatively low vertical wind shear prior to and during landfall. This is likely a Cat-4, given resolution.

[SoupBone]

The ASCAT-B pass actually has a decent center (elongated but almost a TD) at 13.9N 78.3W. That would throw off everything.

And that's why this is far from set in stone. We'll end up waking up to Houston being back under the models.

[catskillfire51]

I guess we will see how this plays out but the L and the actual circulation seem way off on the hmon.

[skyline385]

The ASCAT-B pass actually has a decent center (elongated but almost a TD) at 13.9N 78.3W. That would throw off everything.

And that's why this is far from set in stone. We'll end up waking up to Houston being back under the models.

If you look at 0Z GEFS, 80-90% members are headed for LA and very few get to TX. I am not sure why so many GEFS members are resolving to a NE center...

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF back west. Might make landfall on the Yucatan

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/fxNkNtO.jpg

I guess we will see how this plays out but the L and the actual circulation seem way off on the hmon.

I think HMON can't figure out which is the actual center. It's trying to split this off into two.

[CrazyC83]

The ASCAT-B pass actually has a decent center (elongated but almost a TD) at 13.9N 78.3W. That would throw off everything.

And that's why this is far from set in stone. We'll end up waking up to Houston being back under the models.

If you look at 0Z GEFS, 80-90% members are headed for LA and very few get to TX. I am not sure why so many GEFS members are resolving to a NE center...

The ASCAT pass wasn't out yet; the assumption was based on the convection.

[Woofde]

HWRF back west. Might make landfall on the Yucatan

990mb in under 48 hours... this is gonna be another run where it goes bonkers in intensity.

[CrazyC83]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021082600/hwrf_mslp_wind_99L_16.png

HWRF back west. Might make landfall on the Yucatan

990mb in under 48 hours... this is gonna be another run where it goes bonkers in intensity.

Not impossible IMO. If it is almost a TD now...and the southern circulation can consolidate...this could be strong quick.

[galaxy401]

It's difficult to get a solid consensus until we have an actual center to track. I'm not really going to look at a path until the NHC posts theirs.

[SoupBone]

The ASCAT-B pass actually has a decent center (elongated but almost a TD) at 13.9N 78.3W. That would throw off everything.

And that's why this is far from set in stone. We'll end up waking up to Houston being back under the models.

If you look at 0Z GEFS, 80-90% members are headed for LA and very few get to TX. I am not sure why so many GEFS members are resolving to a NE center...

These are the wrenches that get thrown when you don't have recon giving us a true center if one even exists. Time and time I recall reading on this very forum, initialization of these models is critical. If it's not initializing on the true center coordinates, things will change. Even with the ensembles honing in, I still don't feel comfortable.

[grapealcoholic]

This HWRF run is something else

[Owasso]

HWRF is noticeably slower and therefore more south. More west and stronger than the last run as well.

Threads the Yucatan Channel.

[SoupBone]

Watch the Euro head to Corpus Christi.

[catskillfire51]

I am amazed by the HWRF track when the 00z guidance shows it going over cuba then louisiana. Why do they differ so much?

[SoupBone]

I am amazed by the HWRF track when the 00z guidance shows it going over cuba then louisiana. Why do they differ so much?

I recall last night someone saying that the HWRF and HMON really need a defined center to be more accurate. I don't know how accurate that statement is though. They were bouncing all over the place last night.

[CrazyC83]

This HWRF run is something else

I think HWRF actually develops the LLC and not allows the MLC (or a relocated center) to drop to the surface. That is why it is so far to the southwest.