ATL: IDA - Models

[Steve]

HWRF a 942mb bomb at landfall.

Beast. A little farther west than the globals though toward St. Mary/Iberia parishes (New Iberia, Franklin, Ricohoc, Lydia, Morgan City, etc.). There are a couple hundred thousand people down that way and then a couple hundred more in the bayou just east of there (Lafourche/Terrebonne/Assumption Parishes).

[Senobia]

It looks like the 12z GEFS is more west than the operational GFS. Some members still show landfall as far west as the LA/TX state line.

Link? Graphic?

[tolakram]

HWRF

[Senobia]

CMC is coming in with a western component still. This is different than what usually happens and would probably indicate strengthening up until landfall or at least maintaining vs. fading northeast and getting absorbed/weakening. Looks to come in around Grand Isle/Fourchon which means everyone from Harrison County over to Terrebonne are going to get hit pretty hard <-- per the CMC.

However, CMC is fast and landfalls Sunday am. I haven't looked at ICON or GFS 12z to see if they have sped up landfall as well.

Harrison County....where?

[tolakram]

It looks like the 12z GEFS is more west than the operational GFS. Some members still show landfall as far west as the LA/TX state line.

Link? Graphic?

Very misleading. Those members all show consolidation south of the current position.

[ROCK]

If the winds catch up to 944MB dude god speed LA.. .I would be road trippin it west. just my opinion of course.

[Senobia]

It looks like the 12z GEFS is more west than the operational GFS. Some members still show landfall as far west as the LA/TX state line.

Link? Graphic?

Very misleading. Those members all show consolidation south of the current position.

https://i.imgur.com/bz1DDdN.png

Thanks. That's what I thought I saw. Was just wondering there was some phenomenal W shift I had missed.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[Steve]

CMC is coming in with a western component still. This is different than what usually happens and would probably indicate strengthening up until landfall or at least maintaining vs. fading northeast and getting absorbed/weakening. Looks to come in around Grand Isle/Fourchon which means everyone from Harrison County over to Terrebonne are going to get hit pretty hard <-- per the CMC.

However, CMC is fast and landfalls Sunday am. I haven't looked at ICON or GFS 12z to see if they have sped up landfall as well.

Harrison County....where?

Coastal mostly, but pretty much the whole county. They'll be under training bands as the system pulls up just west of due north. Obviously the farther west it goes, the less the impacts over that way. But press play on these for an idea:

GFS Simulated IR4
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=222

GFS Rainfall Estimates (a foot for Harrison & Hancock Co's)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=168

Now the CMC which is what you specifically quoted that I posted:

CMC IR4 Simulated Sattelite
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2612&fh=37

[SoupBone]

Euro looks further south and west of the previous run at 80 hours. Looks to graze Terrebonne this time.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro saved 0-120 hour loop, LA cannot catch a break picking off where they left off in 2020:

[MONTEGUT_LA]

12z NAM 3km is very terrifying!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_ir_seus_fh26-60.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_60.png

This NAM 3km sounding is from the Western Eyewall, 175 knots just above the surface!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nam3km_2021082612_fh60_sounding_25.84N_89.97W.png

If this would come to truth, that would destroy almost all of South Louisiana south of I-10, don't know what 200 MPH storm would do.

Definitely a nightmare for us down here... And most ppl wont leave. I know ppl personally who stayed knowing a cat 4 or 5 is heading our way.

I pray this didnt pan out for anyone

[tolakram]

12Z Landfall MSLP

[Steve]

Solid consensus on the SFWMD spaghetti plots.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[dantonlsu]

Solid consensus on the SFWMD spaghetti plots.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Crazy consensus this far out.

[StormPyrate]

Solid consensus on the SFWMD spaghetti plots.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Crazy consensus this far out.

It is not really that far out, this being Thursday with some models showing Sunday landfall.

[LSU Saint]

A sigh of relief was let out all over Houston today with those models. Prayers to my guys and gals in LA

[SoupBone]

A sigh of relief was let out all over Houston today with those models. Prayers to my guys and gals in LA

Not at least until the 00Z models with the new center fix runs are done. Even then, I'm in the fully inland and dissipated crowd.

[HurryKane]

I am in Pass Christian, MGC, 28ft of surge in Katrina, lost it all. I am SO stressed right now. Local WM is closing today at 2 due to Covid outbreak, do I make a trip for supplies? Start preparing to evacuate? HELP. I am limited financially due to just paying an astronomical NFIP premium, ironic huh?

Hi Christiana, I am nearby and am preparing as if this were going to be a duplicate of Zeta. Definitely recommend making a trip for supplies and going over your evacuation plan to see if there’s anything you might need to complete in the next two days. That stress is an awful feeling, sending you hugs.

One of the biggest differences between this and Zeta will be the duration. Zeta, though it had a punch, was PDQ. In New Orleans, we might have had 3 1/2 hours of weather, and the eye passed over us. This is a day+ and a foot or more of rain. Should be much stronger overall even though Zeta was fairly strong just at landfall and quickly faded out.

Good point. I was thinking in terms of wind intensity and path, and not water…my house is at a high elevation. Yes in the details it will not be an exact duplicate of Zeta. But it is going to suck a lot.