ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

NOAA comms back up.

[skyline385]

NE quad pass coming up, FL winds already at 65kt

[Category5Kaiju]

Also as of now it looks like Ida is stronger wind speed-wise and pressure-wise compared to Nora in the EPAC, and this imho is an early sign that Ida is overperforming and may not really need to worry about shear induced by Nora in the long term.

[catskillfire51]

Looks like that big cell may be helping to wrap things up by the center.

https://i.imgur.com/PnjM8Fv.gif

Forecast track has it going towards the western end of Isla del la Juventud. Looks like it might end up more towards the eastern end which is the eastern edge of the forecast cone.

Have to wait and see the next center pass, so far its on track.

[skyline385]

Also as of now it looks like Ida is stronger wind speed-wise and pressure-wise compared to Nora in the EPAC, and this imho is an early sign that Ida is overperforming and may not really need to worry about shear induced by Nora in the long term.

If you look at the shear plots on GFS, then Nora doesnt significantly affect Ida until it landfalls. Both storms are plenty far away right now per the models...

[Kohlecane]

And to think Ida's over the coolest sst's it will encounter for the rest of her journey

[aspen]

Lots of 60-65 kt FL winds. The 90% conversion supports surface winds of 55 kt.

[kevin]

67 kt FL and 53 kt SFMR, looks like NHC was right by going to 50 kt immediately and it migth actually already be 55 kt right now. Considering we expected this to be ~45 kt and it's 55 kt instead I'd say hurricane warnings for Cuba are a good idea.

[aspen]

Pressure looks to still be around 996mb. Center is NNW of the last fix, so we might see another east track shift.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure looks to still be around 996mb. Center is NNW of the last fix, so we might see another east track shift.

Pressure might be a little lower, doesn't look like they got the center.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Angry shrimp on approach to the GOMEX.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Hurricane Watches are in effect for the US Gulf coast from Cameron, LA to the MS/AL border

Storm surge watch is in effect from Sabine Pass TX to the AL/FL line.

A significant hurricane event is likely over SE LA into coastal MS late this weekend.

Discussion:
Surface observations from the Cayman Islands indicate that Ida is starting to intensify this morning with a surface pressure recorded at Grand Cayman of 1003mb. USAF mission will be in Ida shortly to asses the structural and intensity changes overnight. Radar data shows increased banding to the north and east of the center this morning and a better consolidation of deep convection near and over the center. Ida continues to move NW and will approach and cross west-central Cuba later today.

Track:
Ida is continuing to move toward the NW around 13-14mph along the SW edge of a deep layer ridge of high pressure over the SW ATL just off the US SE coast. The forecast track reasoning is fairly straight forward as Ida will round the western side of this ridge over the next 48 hours and approach the US Gulf coast late this weekend. Guidance track aides remain fairly tightly clustered on a landfall along the SC or SE LA coast by midday Sunday into Sunday night. Confidence is now high that Ida will landfall along this portion of the Gulf coast this weekend.

Intensity:
Ida is undergoing a bit of SW shear this morning due to a trough of low pressure to the W and NW of the system, but conditions will continue to improve and once Ida closely off an inner core a rapid rate of intensification is expected over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Intensity guidance continues to bring a significant major hurricane to the US Gulf coast and NHC now brings Ida to 115mph at landfall Sunday afternoon. The NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the intensity spectrum and Ida could be stronger than currently forecast at landfall.

The wind field of Ida is likely to expand over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and this will drive a significant, far reaching, and life threatening storm surge across much of SE LA and coastal MS. This also indicates that tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the coast by Sunday morning…so there is about 48 hours of preparation time and that window is going to close quickly.

Impacts:
Significant hurricane impacts are likely over SC and SE LA into coastal MS late this weekend into Monday. Storm surge forecasts of 7-11 feet above the ground is likely over the vulnerable SE LA and coastal MS outside of the hurricane protection systems. Widespread hurricane force winds are likely across much of SE LA including metro New Orleans and into coastal MS.

Local Impacts:
Seas will build into the 8-12 foot range by Sunday into Monday along the upper TX coast and this will result in wave run-up along the Gulf facing beaches. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides Sunday into Monday with total water levels in the 3.0-3.5 foot range possible.

[AlabamaDave]

If I recall correctly from posts yesterday, a stronger storm now would be pulled more east than the current forecast track? Or has NHC already factored this into their current track? Would hate to see this pulled closer to New Orleans.

[kevin]

First vis loop of Ida today (+ IR):

[PavelGaborik]

Ida looks like a big girl.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431247947283320844

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/coweatherman/status/1431246028842291200

[MississippiWx]

Ida has developed a nice CDO with strong convection bursting directly over the center now. I think we are in for a period of quick strengthening until she interacts with land briefly.

[SoupBone]

If I recall correctly from posts yesterday, a stronger storm now would be pulled more east than the current forecast track? Or has NHC already factored this into their current track? Would hate to see this pulled closer to New Orleans.

It can only go so far east with that ridge in its way.

[FLpanhandle91]

Lookin like this could enter the Gulf as a hurricane. At least 6 hours ahead of schedule so far.