ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Saw a tweet a little while ago that the GasBuddy app is live for the Ida evacuation. A great resource for those evacuating as fuel supplies will be challenged in various areas.

[wx98]

Yup. For future reference, the label "NOAA9" refers to one particular plane, nicknamed "Gonzo," that doesn't fly into the storm (it's a small jet, vs. the big propeller Orion P3s like Kermit (NOAA2) and Ms. Piggy (NOAA3)). This one's used to sample surrounding environments. If I had to guess, it's going to measure the ridge over the SE US to improve model track forecasts.

Since this morning the outflow is expanding much more symmetrically and they will no doubt find a favorable high pressure dome evolving. Intensity is already hours ahead of the model projection down in the 980's. Looks like some of the models are trying to time an eyewall replacement cycle as IDA tracks over the loop current. 24 mile wide eye is probably going to be kind of restrictive for the volume and velocity of inflow screaming up through there at ~930 mb's. So the core self destructs for a few hours and expands the eye to about 50 miles wide at 947 mb's seems reasonable that may happen sometime.

They are calling for over 10 feet of flood surge now in southern Louisiana and that will extend up all those bayous and salt marshes for miles. 15 inches of rain and that is going to cause a lot of river and stream flooding coming the other way and of course you have a lot of special Lake and Levee risk situations there. Power outages could be weeks. The mangrove bays will absorb some of the surge but I don't think most of us on Storm2k know Louisiana well enough to give evacuation advice other than direct people to their appropriate local alerts.

We seemed to have lost a nice bit of coast land from the storms Katrina onward. The BP oil spill also did a number on much of the mangrove too. There is alot more marsh and water all along the coast than most people realize, even those that live further inland in SE Louisiana. There just isnt alot down there to slow down thing.

This one will probably take care of many acres more of the barrier islands.

[supercane4867]

The NHC rarely make very bullish intensity forecasts. But when they do, most of the time the system ends up exceeding the already high expectation.

[AlabamaDave]

The only semi-positive news is that the forecast track is staying pretty far west of New Orleans, which would at least spare the most densely populated areas from receiving the core of the winds. Not looking good for Baton Rouge, though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Holy Crap, that's one of the scariest NHC Discussions ever!!! Lord help us if this somehow gets to a Cat 5, although Cat 4 is bad enough!!..................

[Highteeld]

Holy Crap, that's one of the scariest NHC Discussions ever!!! Lord help us if this somehow gets to a Cat 5, although Cat 4 is bad enough!!..................

It's like reading a high-risk outlook from the SPC. Strong wording for sure.

[AlphaToOmega]

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

[Keldeo1997]

[ElectricStorm]

The pit in my stomach just got bigger after reading that disco holy crap

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My thoughts -

Yeah, I've been worried this one could peak at cat 5 in the GOM for about three days now. I was hoping against hope something would change with the model consensus but sadly that seems increasingly less likely as time goes by. The upper-level pattern has been consistently advertised as very conducive for intensification and then maintaining that intensity. A cat 4 at landfall or high-end cat 3 are sadly a likely outcome. The only reason I say this is that historically hurricanes tend to weaken a category or two before landfall in the Northern GOM. Either way, Ida will all but certainly be a monster. Please stay safe everyone.

[St0rmTh0r]

The NHC rarely make very bullish intensity forecasts. But when they do, most of the time the system ends up exceeding the already high expectation.

im a long time observer on this site but just started posting a few years ago. you are right the nhc rarely makes bullish forecasts and are usually pretty conservative. the fact they are explicitly calling for a cat 4 this far out leads me to believe this will exceed all forecasts as we've seen a number of times. have to be honest lots of katrina vibes with this one given the very similar conditions right before Katrina exploded. id be leaving town today if i lived anywhere near the LA coast.

[CrazyC83]

Holy Crap, that's one of the scariest NHC Discussions ever!!! Lord help us if this somehow gets to a Cat 5, although Cat 4 is bad enough!!..................

It's like reading a high-risk outlook from the SPC. Strong wording for sure.

It's definitely one of those that really jumps at you. I'd be concerned about levees there.

[MGC]

Ida will rival Hurricane Betsy (1965) in intensity at landfall in SE Louisiana. I'd be boarding up and getting out if I were where the RFQ is expected. I remember quite well, it left New Orleans in shambles for weeks. Heed evacuation warning.....MGC

[St0rmTh0r]

Holy Crap, that's one of the scariest NHC Discussions ever!!! Lord help us if this somehow gets to a Cat 5, although Cat 4 is bad enough!!..................

It's like reading a high-risk outlook from the SPC. Strong wording for sure.

It's definitely one of those that really jumps at you. I'd be concerned about levees there.

very rare to see a forecast that explicit. havent seen one so explicit since right before katrina blew up

[TallahasseeMan]

The NHC forecast explicitlyalls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours, which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated
by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near
the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and
LGEM.

Sounds like NHC is hinting this could go higher than it's already insane forecast...

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm has made a sinking pit in my stomach

[skyline385]

That 5pm cone is scary, shows major by 2pm tomorrow and still has has 24+ hours in the Gulf after that.

[Fancy1001]

The only semi-positive news is that the forecast track is staying pretty far west of New Orleans, which would at least spare the most densely populated areas from receiving the core of the winds. Not looking good for Baton Rouge, though.

Are you sure about that, the upper right quadrant of a hurricane is usually the worst part and that’s what New Orleans will be stuck in

[utweather]

Ooof that Cat 4 forecast is going to be a huge wakeup call for Louisiana. Evacuate or face a likely very powerful storm.

For New Orleans and Baton Rouge, who is responsible for making mandatory evacuations calls?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Ida will rival Hurricane Betsy (1965) in intensity at landfall in SE Louisiana. I'd be boarding up and getting out if I were where the RFQ is expected. I remember quite well, it left New Orleans in shambles for weeks. Heed evacuation warning.....MGC

Was Betsy the strongest hurricane in terms of wind speed to hit Lousianna in recorded history? I know Camille was stronger for the GOM but it made landfall in Mississippi.