ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

Terrible for surge estimates. Best case scenario probably would have been a compact but very intense hurricane hitting very low populated or marshland and rapidly weakening.

A weaker Cat 3/4 storm but with a huge wind field is very similar to Katrina effects for surge.

This is gonna be one of those cases where the pressure falls and the wind field just expands instead of becoming very tight and intense.

[dukeblue219]

RI underway now... pressure looks to be way down. Specials advisory should be forthcoming.

Why? The last couple pressures were estimated and the winds aren't doing anything crazy yet. Peak FL of 89 knots in the NE quadrant... Not everything is RI folks...

[supercane4867]

Well forget my prediction about a double max wind radius, because there’s clearly not one where I thought there would be.

Without a double maxima I don't see how the wind field could have expanded so much.

Hitting very warm waters after land interaction with Cuba. Similar to what Ike went thru albeit to a lesser degree

[ElectricStorm]

RI underway now... pressure looks to be way down. Specials advisory should be forthcoming.

Why? The last couple pressures were estimated and the winds aren't doing anything crazy yet. Peak FL of 89 knots in the NE quadrant... Not everything is RI folks...

The pressure usually falls before the wind catches up. I'd expect the winds to really start ramping up in a couple hours

[Dean4Storms]

If this track to the east of the cone continues they need to move the Hurricane Warnings further eastward and the TS Warnings.

[Jr0d]

RI underway now... pressure looks to be way down. Specials advisory should be forthcoming.

Why? The last couple pressures were estimated and the winds aren't doing anything crazy yet. Not everything is RI folks...

The NHC said at 5pm that RI is under way, and the satellite imagery nseems to suggest it.

So far 970.4mb extrapolation but it looks like they missed the center. Good timing for the Hurricane Hunters, just in time to monitor a(rapidly) strengthening storm.

[Kohlecane]

Now we should do a poll on the next pass and it should be +/- (#) from 970

[Javlin]

Now I just plotted out the numbers of rise 7 run 4 from the last set of coordinates and I get once again MS/LA line 29.5N and 89W if that relation pans out we on the MGC are about to get it handed to us.Another couple of sets of coordinates more N than W ............................?!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1431729206723940353

[Dean4Storms]

Now I just plotted out the numbers of rise 7 run 4 from the last set of coordinates and I get once again MS/LA line 29.5N and 89W if that relation pans out we on the MGC are about to get it handed to us.Another couple of sets of coordinates more N than W ............................?!

Yea, with this track today they should move the H Warnings to cover the MS Coast to AL Border IMO.

[Javlin]

If this track to the east of the cone continues they need to move the Hurricane Warnings further eastward and the TS Warnings.

Almost to late now Dean

[Hammy]

RI underway now... pressure looks to be way down. Specials advisory should be forthcoming.

Why? The last couple pressures were estimated and the winds aren't doing anything crazy yet. Peak FL of 89 knots in the NE quadrant... Not everything is RI folks...

It's gone up 20-25mph in 12 hours--that by definition is rapid intensification. It's not going to jump 5-10mph every hour.

[Shell Mound]

Well forget my prediction about a double max wind radius, because there’s clearly not one where I thought there would be.

Without a double maxima I don't see how the wind field could have expanded so much.

Hitting very warm waters after land interaction with Cuba. Similar to what Ike went thru albeit to a lesser degree

If this is indeed the case, then the situation in New Orleans has just become much more dire, given Ida’s expanded wind radii and eastward bias.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye still looks open to the NW...deep convection hasn't quite wrapped all the way around

[bob rulz]

I think having the capability to constantly monitor the development of hurricanes frame-by-frame makes intensification seem slower than it really is a lot of the time, plus we have a tendency to compare RI to the most extreme examples.

[MBryant]

Terrible for surge estimates. Best case scenario probably would have been a compact but very intense hurricane hitting very low populated or marshland and rapidly weakening.

A weaker Cat 3/4 storm but with a huge wind field is very similar to Katrina effects for surge.

This is gonna be one of those cases where the pressure falls and the wind field just expands instead of becoming very tight and intense.

Surge is not instantaneous. The surface winds must interact with the surface water to provide momentum. That takes time.

[dukeblue219]

It's gone up 20-25mph in 12 hours--that by definition is rapid intensification. It's not going to jump 5-10mph every hour.

RI requires 35 mph in 24 hours. I don't think we've technically reached that yet.

Look I'm not trying to be the guy saying "ALL IS FINE HERE" as this is clearly a dangerous storm, but there is always this live recon cheerleading stuff like "here we go, blowing up now!" that is ridiculous.

[Nimbus]

If the 18Z model runs get initialized with the new lower surface pressures and initial motions maybe we will get something more useful. Next recon pass may drop 3 to 5 mb's, Its hard to fly through an eyewall that is circling at close to 100 knots. NHC thinks we are starting RI.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye still looks open to the NW...deep convection hasn't quite wrapped all the way around

Andddd it's closed

[tolakram]

It's gone up 20-25mph in 12 hours--that by definition is rapid intensification. It's not going to jump 5-10mph every hour.

RI requires 35 mph in 24 hours. I don't think we've technically reached that yet.

Look I'm not trying to be the guy saying "ALL IS FINE HERE" as this is clearly a dangerous storm, but there is always this live recon cheerleading stuff like "here we go, blowing up now!" that is ridiculous.

You seem to be trying hard to make fun of people even though your data doesn't fit. RI = 35 mph in 24 hours. Current observed is 20 mph in 12 hours, which would equate to 40 mph in 24 hours, at least. I'm not going to ask people to wait until the clock strikes 24 hours to claim RI appears to be underway.