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cycloneye wrote:Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.
https://i.imgur.com/gBQQj8V.png
https://i.imgur.com/KT7UDL2.gif
AlphaToOmega wrote:cycloneye wrote:Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.
https://i.imgur.com/gBQQj8V.png
https://i.imgur.com/KT7UDL2.gif
The SOI definitely does not show that.
AlphaToOmega wrote:cycloneye wrote:Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.
https://i.imgur.com/gBQQj8V.png
https://i.imgur.com/KT7UDL2.gif
The SOI definitely does not show that.
cycloneye wrote:EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).
Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.
Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).
https://i.imgur.com/w52H1e1.png
crownweather wrote:cycloneye wrote:EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).
Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.
Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).
https://i.imgur.com/w52H1e1.png
That March, April, May, 2022 ENSO forecast is intriguing. Suggests ***maybe*** a neutral ENSO for the 2022 hurricane season. Of course, let's get through this one first.
crownweather wrote:cycloneye wrote:EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).
Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.
Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).
https://i.imgur.com/w52H1e1.png
That March, April, May, 2022 ENSO forecast is intriguing. Suggests ***maybe*** a neutral ENSO for the 2022 hurricane season. Of course, let's get through this one first.
Yellow Evan wrote:Eventually a multi-year Niña would flip the NAO I believe and try to weaken the AMO I think.
mrbagyo wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mvYMmEn.png
cold anomaly has now reached the dateline
how long will this Niña last
mrbagyo wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mvYMmEn.png
cold anomaly has now reached the dateline
how long will this Niña last