ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

Levi's thoughts on 91L

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1435288217754865664

[grapealcoholic]

Shear is low. If there's any sort of LLC this thing will get going quick

[robbielyn]

Shear is low. If there's any sort of LLC this thing will get going quick

I wouldn't be surprised if this relocates further toward the ne where the big blob is.

[wxman57]

If it's going to develop a weak LLC, then it'll be right before it moves inland into Florida tomorrow night. It's still only the GFS that indicates even a weak low forming. Regardless, all it means is rain for Florida and Georgia.

[FLpanhandle91]

Pretty persistent convection near what looks like the center of the trough axis.

[robbielyn]

If it's going to develop a weak LLC, then it'll be right before it moves inland into Florida tomorrow night. It's still only the GFS that indicates even a weak low forming. Regardless, all it means is rain for Florida and Georgia.

Note well taken, but when Levi says what he said to keep an eye on it, its probably a good idea!

[AlphaToOmega]

This could be something we have to watch. Model guidance is starting to become more bullish with Invest 91L, and SSTs seem conducive for tropical development. Upper-level winds also also expected to be favorable for tropical development. This might become Tropical Storm Mindy.

[Teban54]

I am not sure the shear is that impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/7uUkN1K.gif

Off-topic, but how can there still be a wall of shear in the Caribbean at this time?

[xironman]

Nice tropical inflow across the Caribbean and over the Yucatan. The oil platforms don't want to go SE, still stuck SSW.



42055 has switch around to a north wind.

Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 5.8 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 5.8 kts

[stammer_cane91]

It appears a "center" relocation or adjustment is taking place N of Yucatan. The next 24 hrs or so shear should let up mixing w a good amount of mid level moisture. If this does verify development could become likely for a depression as euro foresees anticyclonic uppers. In the 200mb levels our system may be influenced by a Jetstreak aiding in the evacuation of air influencing outflow for a developing system. Will be interesting to watch play out. If the cards fall just right so they say...

[caneman]

It sure seems to be coming together.

Haven't been able to post in awhile.
Thanks Storm2k for helping me recover my password

[ronjon]

It sure seems to be coming together.

Haven't been able to post in awhile.
Thanks Storm2k for helping me recover my password

Glad to see you back Caneman!

[psyclone]

peak season is that time of year where stuff is like weeds in the sidewalk crack...stuff just finds a way to grow. This won't be a monster system owing to less than ideal conditions and a lack of time... but it's not hard to envision a td or storm from this. even weak systems present flooding rain risk. Fred and Ida just showed us what a weak system (or formally strong system) can do with rainfall far flung from landfall points. I'd give this a coin toss at development just based on persistence, location and climo alone.

[grapealcoholic]

Just eyeballing 23 90.7 is where I'd put the vortmax

[Sciencerocks]

[xironman]

NM

[Kohlecane]

Not bad presentation from a regional view!

[Sciencerocks]

I wouldn't be shocked if this became Mindy. Probably 35-40 knots at landfall.

[Nimbus]

There were briefly winds from the SSE at the Tampa buoy 42003 a couple hours ago.
The mid level convection seems to be moving NE but this could still be just a trough at the surface.
Lowest surface pressures appear to be in the northeastern gulf south of Dauphin Island.

[Nimbus]

It sure seems to be coming together.

Haven't been able to post in awhile.
Thanks Storm2k for helping me recover my password

The folks in the Panhandle have been praying for this to come in further south since they received enough from Ida.
I wouldn't be surprised if the beaches got tropical storm force winds from this mess *if* there is a low level circulation tomorrow.