ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Nice rotation on radar south of Pensacola, of course no idea if there is any surface reflection. Good thing it's running out of water soon though.

[xironman]

I have seen worse, kinda TC looking

[wxman57]

Pensacola radar is looking a long way above the surface, but I see evidence of an LLC about 160 miles SSW of Pensacola in visible imagery. Might be enough for the NHC to call it a depression this afternoon before it moves ashore. No change as far as FL/GA impacts.

[Sciencerocks]

[MississippiWx]

Looks like a tropical depression is forming quickly. Might be a weak tropical storm before coming ashore, but nothing more.

[HurricaneBelle]

If this gets named Mindy right before landfall we're barely going to have enough time to get the Mork jokes out.

[MGC]

Yes, sure looks like a surface circulation has developed. Interesting what the NHC has to say in the next update. Odds increasing for a TD to form IMO.......MGC

[wxman57]

Only about 6 hours before it reaches the coast. Don't think it's organized enough to be classified as a depression. Broad, weak circulation. No evidence of any TS wind. Scatterometer pass from 7:30am CDT didn't indicate even a hint of a circulation. Peak wind SSW around 20-25 kts.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
today in association with a surface trough and an upper-level
disturbance over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition,
recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure may be forming. The system is expected to move
northeastward through this evening, and a tropical depression could
form before it reaches the northeastern Gulf coast tonight or early
Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern
United States and emerge over the western Atlantic late this week,
where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are
likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia
through Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[weeniepatrol]

Currently in NE FL and I can tell you the Suwanee Valley has had an active summer with daily seabreeze storms and TCs Elsa and Fred tracking over the area. Regardless of advisories being initiated, any excessive rainfall could result in problems. Luckily, this system is ejecting quickly to the NE out of the area. From my AFD:

Rainfall Totals of widespread 1-2 inch amounts are expected, with local 2-4 inch amounts, likely over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor and into the Suwannee River Valley, which will likely push some of the river basins (Suwannee,Santa Fe, St. Mary`s) back into Minor Flood.

[TallyTracker]

Rainy day here in Tallahassee but hardly a breath of wind. This does somewhat remind me of TS Emily in 2017 which went from nothing to 60 mph TS in a few hours. NHC barely got an advisory on it before making landfall. I don’t think it will be that strong, but 40-45 mph TS land falling this evening near Mexico Beach looks quite possible.

[wxman57]

I think it looks less impressive than it did a few hours ago. Squalls are nearly to the FL coast. No good reason to classify it as a TD to start advisories only to end advisories at 03Z or 09Z.

[robbielyn]

I think it looks less impressive than it did a few hours ago. Squalls are nearly to the FL coast. No good reason to classify it as a TD to start advisories only to end advisories at 03Z or 09Z.

Could the cold front be causing stable air to cause the outflow boundary I see? I am asking because I dont know exactly what is causing it but I want to.

[Sciencerocks]

[Landy]

Chances upped to 80/80 in a special TWO.

[cycloneye]

Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and
thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized
in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles
southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived
wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better
defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or
tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings
could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system
is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge
over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental
conditions appear unfavorable for additional development.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across
portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through
Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[aspen]

I hope they don’t waste a name on this, because right now it does not seem like a name-able storm. A brief TD is what I would go with.

[USTropics]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2079/a8MZHD.gif

Boundary line of convection shooting out towards the SE in the last frames of this loop, indications any LLC was likely disrupted before it could get going.

[Category5Kaiju]

91L attempting to pull an Imelda here

[Ivanhater]

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