ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#881 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:41 pm

Here we go folks. Plane begins to decend to operational altitude.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#882 Postby brad512 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:42 pm

130kts/936
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#883 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:43 pm

I think recon will miss Sam's peak intensity by an hour or two. SFMR readings in the core may approach or exceed flight level winds, curious to see how the NHC will handle that.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#884 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:45 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:I think recon will miss Sam's peak intensity by an hour or two. SFMR in the core may approach or exceed flight level winds, curious to see how the NHC will handle that.

I do not think Sam has reached peak intensity yet. I think it is still intensifying through continued organization. I think the peak is in a day or so.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#885 Postby kevin » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:46 pm

Here we go people, get your popcorn ready. Last IR before recon completes its descent:

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#886 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:47 pm

My guess 125kt/940mb

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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#887 Postby grapealcoholic » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:47 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:I think recon will miss Sam's peak intensity by an hour or two. SFMR in the core may approach or exceed flight level winds, curious to see how the NHC will handle that.

I do not think Sam has reached peak intensity yet. I think it is still intensifying through continued organization. I think the peak is in a day or so.

If it peaks, I think it will be in the next few hours. After that ERCs will keep it down
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#888 Postby Zonacane » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:48 pm

I’ll go 145 knots and 920 mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#889 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:49 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:I think recon will miss Sam's peak intensity by an hour or two. SFMR in the core may approach or exceed flight level winds, curious to see how the NHC will handle that.

I do not think Sam has reached peak intensity yet. I think it is still intensifying through continued organization. I think the peak is in a day or so.

Sam's core structure would normally favor continued strengthening, but these waters are marginal in OHC. That would suggest steady state with slight weakening, at least until Sam starts accelerating in 3-4 days.
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#890 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:50 pm

I'm going to go with 135 knot, MSLP 945mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#891 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:51 pm

NHC has been spot on with these MDR systems and they're at 120kts right now. I think it may be 125-130, but I'll be surprised if it's higher than that. I'll guess the pressure to be around 940mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#892 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:53 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2021 Time : 212020 UTC
Lat : 13:15:36 N Lon : 48:25:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 946.5mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#893 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:55 pm

Recon is inside Sam, here we go!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#894 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:56 pm

I say 144 FL 141 SFMR 931 mbar with 13 knot winds on dropsonde.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#895 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:59 pm

I’ll guess 130 kt, 935-940mb.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#896 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:00 pm

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1441876349291884548



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1441883237463179269


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#897 Postby Teban54 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:01 pm

Ok now Sam actually looks like it's weakening based on IR. Hope they revise the 5pm intensity to be a bit higher than whatever recon finds.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#898 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:02 pm

Watch them find it exactly as the NHC has it at 140 mph. Or better yet, not even category 4 :lol:
I think it will be an anti-climatic find either way just like with Eta last year.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#899 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:03 pm

Teban54 wrote:Ok now Sam actually looks like it's weakening based on IR. Hope they revise the 5pm intensity to be a bit higher than whatever recon finds.


Yeah it definitely has at this point. Could easily bounce back later though but who knows.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#900 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:05 pm

Why did Sam lose floater status?
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