2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1441887348170518530

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1441887348170518530?

And Yaakov was right with Larry, we got Nicholas afterwards!

[SFLcane]

Uptick on Gefs ensembles this evening.

[Spacecoast]

Uptick on Gefs ensembles this evening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0Qs3bkVX/E85-DD5-D0-DFA7-4558-AC59-F4-DB6-BD9-C91-B.gif

These members seem to have originated from the waves expected to move of the African coast... a long journey

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS has a major hurricane with the day 10+ Caribbean disturbance. Tracks over central Cuba and the Bahamas.

[Teban54]

0z GFS feels like a Happy Hour run (maybe Drunk Hour?):
- The 0/20 lemon ahead of the next wave develops, peaks at 997 mb before weakening
- The next 0/50 wave becomes a 982 mb hurricane in the eastern MDR, and later reintensifies in the subtropics similar to Lee 2017, becoming a 974 mb hurricane before hitting the Azores
- The WCar system develops again (looks like a merger of a CAG and the remnants of the 997mb storm), hits Cuba while intensifying, passes east of Florida and smacks the Dorian-ravaged Bahamas, peaks in the Gulf Stream and goes OTS, basically a longer-lived version of Michelle 2001

So far, GFS has been pretty consistent on the timing of the WCar development, even though it's long range. It hits Cuba at the exact same time and location on the most recent (0z Sep 26) run as the 18z Sep 24 run, the one that first showed the WCar system - pretty remarkable. Seems like the system starts to organize at 250+ hrs and a TC forms at ~288 hrs.

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS is once again insistent that a cyclone spins up in the Western Caribbean. Looks like development begins off Central America around day 9.


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[SouthFLTropics]

GFS ends with a storm just sitting and spinning near Western Cuba. Obviously way long range but it appears the steering currents collapse.


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[otowntiger]

GFS ends with a storm just sitting and spinning near Western Cuba. Obviously way long range but it appears the steering currents collapse.


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I’ve noticed this storm genesis seems to be be getting pushed back further and further. Isn’t that usually a tell tale sign that it’s phantomish? Of course any of these prognostications at 16 days out are really just fantasy either way so can’t be taken very seriously, other than a signal that conditions are, or could be getting ripe for something to spin up down there in the next 2-3 weeks.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS ends with a storm just sitting and spinning near Western Cuba. Obviously way long range but it appears the steering currents collapse.


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I’ve noticed this storm genesis seems to be be getting pushed back further and further. Isn’t that usually a tell tale sign that it’s phantomish? Of course any of these prognostications at 16 days out are really just fantasy either way so can’t be taken very seriously, other than a signal that conditions are, or could be getting ripe for something to spin up down there in the next 2-3 weeks.

Not necessarily; it looks like the GFS has been very consistent with initially developing the system in the October 7-9ish timeframe (whenever a run had it develop of course).

[toad strangler]

Uptick on Gefs ensembles this evening.

https://i.postimg.cc/0Qs3bkVX/E85-DD5-D0-DFA7-4558-AC59-F4-DB6-BD9-C91-B.gif

And a huge crash at 6z ... nada

[blp]

GFS ends with a storm just sitting and spinning near Western Cuba. Obviously way long range but it appears the steering currents collapse.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’ve noticed this storm genesis seems to be be getting pushed back further and further. Isn’t that usually a tell tale sign that it’s phantomish? Of course any of these prognostications at 16 days out are really just fantasy either way so can’t be taken very seriously, other than a signal that conditions are, or could be getting ripe for something to spin up down there in the next 2-3 weeks.

Not necessarily; it looks like the GFS has been very consistent with initially developing the system in the October 7-9ish timeframe (whenever a run had it develop of course).

I don't know, the GFS has had so much trouble in the WCar in the early and later in the season with the phantoms. I can't understand why they can't fix it. No doubt the GFS will be the first to sniff it out if something does try to form but it's only right about 1/4 of the time IMO. Reminds me of the old CMC that developed every vorticity in the entire basin. GFS has improved a good deal in general especially with the upper pattern as evidence with Sam and does well with cyclogenesis everywhere else.

I do believe the GFS progged upper pattern that will be very conducive that if something does get going it will get pulled out unlike last year that featured a more zonal pattern driving systems into central America. Very dangerous setup coming up in October.

[Spacecoast]

Many knowledgeable people have noted the WCarib is primed for development, almost like a tropical tinderbox.
Any trigger would probably spark development over the next 2-4 weeks, so it's not a stretch for models to predict genesis, especially GFS.
Last year, GFS seemed to show long term activity, then drop them mid term, then they re-appear in the short term.

Separating the real storms from the phantoms will be tricky. Confirmation from ensembles, and / or Euro will be necessary.

[otowntiger]

Many knowledgeable people have noted the WCarib is primed for development, almost like a tropical tinderbox.
Any trigger would probably spark development over the next 2-4 weeks, so it's not a stretch for models to predict genesis, especially GFS.
Last year, GFS seemed to show long term activity, then drop them mid term, then they re-appear in the short term.

Separating the real storms from the phantoms will be tricky. Confirmation from ensembles, and / or Euro will be necessary.

Yep. Pretty much my point- timing and track are the real unknowns at this point. Separating the phantoms from the real storms is also a challenge but is sorted out as the genesis date closes in and multiple models began to agree. We are not there yet by a long shot.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS into Central America:

[AutoPenalti]

06z and 12z ensembles seems to have dropped development for the W Car.

[Category5Kaiju]

06z and 12z ensembles seems to have dropped development for the W Car.

GEFS: You sure about that?

[AutoPenalti]

06z and 12z ensembles seems to have dropped development for the W Car.

GEFS: You sure about that?

Whoops, I guess the run wasn’t complete.

[jhpigott]

06z and 12z ensembles seems to have dropped development for the W Car.

GEFS: You sure about that?

Yeah, that WCARib signal is back on the 12z GEFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92612&fh=0