2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1821 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:29 am

Wow it’s crickets in this thread. Must not be any threats to the. CONUS or the islands.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1822 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:33 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow it’s crickets in this thread. Must not be any threats to the. CONUS or the islands.

There's ensemble support still but it's way far out in time.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1823 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:52 am

Lid is on over Florida and Gulf of Mexico if the gfs is to be believed. There might be systems in the Caribbean but it may be confined to stay South. No guarantees we're gonna get anything big in October.

I Don't see any models doing anything next 10 days in the Caribbean. Gonna bee a quite period expect for the eastern Atlantic.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1824 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:Lid is on over Florida and Gulf of Mexico if the gfs is to be believed. There might be systems in the Caribbean but it may be confined to stay South. No guarantees we're gonna get anything big in October.

I Don't see any models doing anything next 10 days in the Caribbean. Gonna bee a quite period expect for the eastern Atlantic.

https://i.postimg.cc/NfhtHKTF/F889-B164-0-D70-4-DF4-A0-E8-25-B06-A370074.gif

Big “if” there. GFS solutions are varying pretty widely from run to run beyond 10 days
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1825 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:41 pm

Woof, that is one powerful cyclone that the latest GEFS has there in the WCAR :eek:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1826 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:Lid is on over Florida and Gulf of Mexico if the gfs is to be believed. There might be systems in the Caribbean but it may be confined to stay South. No guarantees we're gonna get anything big in October.

I Don't see any models doing anything next 10 days in the Caribbean. Gonna bee a quite period expect for the eastern Atlantic.
https://i.postimg.cc/NfhtHKTF/F889-B164-0-D70-4-DF4-A0-E8-25-B06-A370074.gif


Looks like the early October suppressive period is coming into model range. Shows up well on VP forecasts. Could let some waves sneak into the western basin. I am thinking later in the month for a gyre/major land threat but can’t count this impulse out yet.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1827 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:44 pm

12z GFS showing a pretty large persistent CAG in western caribbean that starts in about a week and persists through the end of its 16 day run. Pretty massive gyre. GFS spits out several storms from it.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1828 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:28 pm

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1829 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:39 am



Hi Adrian! FOUR more weeks and climo starts saying enjoy the Dry Season in S FL! :sun:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1830 Postby jhpigott » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:15 am

00z GEFS still has a relatively strong signal for something to get brewing in the WCAR in the Oct 9 - 12 timeframe https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92900&fh=6

06z GEFS not quite as strong a signal, but still there and focused more towards the FL straits https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2906&fh=-6
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1831 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:03 am

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1832 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:10 am

toad strangler wrote:


Hi Adrian! FOUR more weeks and climo starts saying enjoy the Dry Season in S FL! :sun:


:cry:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1833 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:07 am

Image
GFS keeps advertising a low moving out the Caribbean in @5-6 days and moves @Florida maybe as a TD/TS...
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1834 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:35 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/5ivG1tn.gif
GFS keeps advertising a low moving out the Caribbean in @5-6 days moves @Florida maybe as a TD/TS...


Funny if models suddenly become bullish on this development and track. Then, all we'd need is for the track eventually veer southeast into the Caribbean and it would look a little like "Wanda" could be a backwards Wilma track :lol:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1835 Postby jhpigott » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:47 pm

I know it's a long way out, but there are a number of GEFS ensemble members in the vicinity of SEFL in mid-October on the 12z GEFS

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-72
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1836 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 29, 2021 1:49 pm

12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below. After noting and writing this in the pattern thread, the following came out with member TCs:


Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1837 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 29, 2021 2:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below. After noting and writing this in the pattern thread, the following came out with member TCs:


https://i.imgur.com/hj193Qa.png

Why are they so large? I never understood that.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1838 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Sep 29, 2021 3:40 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below. After noting and writing this in the pattern thread, the following came out with member TCs:


https://i.imgur.com/hj193Qa.png

Why are they so large? I never understood that.


I believe (although not certain), that the size of the circle indicates the spread, or the degree of uncertainty.
From U of Albany " Introduction to Ensemble Prediction"...
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm401/comet/ensemble_webcast/print.htm
Image
"The size of the ensemble spread, like the distance between ensemble members in the spaghetti diagram, indicates the degree of uncertainty.
Large spread values mean high uncertainty"
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1839 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:25 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below. After noting and writing this in the pattern thread, the following came out with member TCs:


https://i.imgur.com/hj193Qa.png

Why are they so large? I never understood that.


The large ones could be due to a GFS bias to make some member TCs too large and powerful in that area. Those are the isobars for 1004/1000/992 mbs for each member. No doubt that the 4 large members are very powerful Hs. But also note that there are ~15 TCs out of 31 members and only 4 are Hs.

Meanwhile the 12Z EPs is much quieter from its 51 members with only ~15% with TCs vs 50% for the GEFS:
Image
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1840 Postby Spacecoast » Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:24 pm

LarryWx wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z GEFS and other models have been suggesting a "Ridge Over Troubled Waters" pattern for the second week in Oct. SE, esp. FL, will need to watch that period if that verifies per Nina climo, especially coming from below. After noting and writing this in the pattern thread, the following came out with member TCs:


https://i.imgur.com/hj193Qa.png

Why are they so large? I never understood that.


The large ones could be due to a GFS bias to make some member TCs too large and powerful in that area. Those are the isobars for 1004/1000/992 mbs for each member. No doubt that the 4 large members are very powerful Hs. But also note that there are ~15 TCs out of 31 members and only 4 are Hs.

Meanwhile the 12Z EPs is much quieter from its 51 members with only ~15% with TCs vs 50% for the GEFS:
https://i.imgur.com/rRfRtb2.png

I stand corrected. The ensembles displayed on TT do show the Std deviation, or spread, but I still need to learn how to interpret these confidence levels.
Those were some huge Hurricanes on the GEFS 12z. Hope they don't become reality.
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