kevin wrote:LarryWx wrote:kevin wrote:06zGFS, probably the busiest GFS ensemble we've had in the last few weeks since Sam formed. It consists of three independent clusters within the next 200 hours: WCar activity around +120 (11 members, 50%), weak subtropical development N of the Bahamas around +132 (13 members, 59%), even more WCar activity around +180 (not really sure how many members since it's difficult to distinguish from the first AOI). However the Euro is still very quiet so we'll see what happens.
https://i.imgur.com/2iFoNXm.png
Good post. To add, the GEFS now has 31-32 members instead of just 21-22.
Thanks for the correction, I have to keep myself more up to date on these model upgrades. In that case the percentages are 35% and 41%, respectively.
The only nuance that I can take away this early is that it appears to me that the 6Z GFS ensembles have seemed to additionally trended a bit westward over the recent runs. Spread out as they are still, I'm less focused in on the 6Z Operational forecast for the small forecasted low that develops just south of Jamaica at 114 hr.'s, especially given the only other model suggesting vague support being ICON with broad 1008 pressures primarily parked further south and west in the Caribbean. I personally think that any development that might occur in the West or Central Caribbean which the GFS is hinting, will:
1) be enhanced or develop from the southern extension of the TW previously associated with "ex-91L"..... and
2) Probably not consolidate quite as early as the 6Z Operational GFS presently suggests at around 114 hr's, but perhaps more like 1-3 days further out.
Ultimately, it's yet to be seen whether the GFS will even begin to show model run after run forecast consistency for a Caribbean disturbance. Happy hour is over and let's see if the 12Z concurs. I don't expect it to... "quite yet" though. Probably best to just see what trends the ensembles suggest and whether other models (UK included) begin to hint toward development as well. My only concern with this presently "low confidence" potential disturbance is, that IF genesis were to occur but the time frame be pushed a bit further out then there may be increased mid level ridging taking place and possibly increased risk of Yucatan or East GOM impact at such a time.
