MarioProtVI wrote:Victor is actually firing convection around the core as we speak. I think there’s still a very good chance it gets to hurricane intensity provided it continues firing around the center which it is well on its way to doing. Y’all write stuff off too easy.
Not necessarily writing anything off, Victor has just taken longer to consolidate than initially modeled. Would not be an issue if he had time - the window is pretty narrow:
conditions for strengthening during the past day or so, it has not
taken full advantage likely due to its broad structure. The
favorable environment for Victor should persist for about another 24
hours, so gradual strengthening is possible during that time period.
However, by the weekend, the models show Victor moving into a region
of moderate to strong southwesterly shear and a progressively drier
airmass.
That doesn't mean a hurricane is impossible (HWRF still brings it up to a low end 1) but higher end solutions are probably off the table.