18z Tropical model suite for 97L=No threat to the US

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cycloneye
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18z Tropical model suite for 97L=No threat to the US

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:44 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03111019

25 kts and 1006 mbs is what the models start this first run on 97L.All go to the NE and east after 3 days and I dont like that here in Puerto Rico because of the flooding we haved today in portions of the island and if that system comes this way a bigger flooding event would come.I guess that the global models were right from last week as Stormsfury brought that information to us. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Tip » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:46 pm

The latest vis loop shows a definite cyclonic twist to the clouds. I think a surface low may be forming.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:50 pm

Luis, is it a bit early to be sure of the eventual track? Probably need many more computer runs. What do you think?
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:53 pm

Yes more runs are needed to be certain of a track but those that are now in this run are only the inicial ones so let's wait for more as they change as you know with every run especially when there is not a strong system yet.
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Nov 10, 2003 3:19 pm

Thanks Luis. PR has been lucky this season, hope the luck continues!
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 10, 2003 3:23 pm

Thanks dixie yes big time lucky with Isabel a cat 5 east of us but deviated to the north.But now let's see what this system will do.
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#7 Postby msbee » Mon Nov 10, 2003 3:28 pm

LUis
I am confused
is this system the same as the one that is West of us now? ( south of PR)
that they are watching for signs of strengthening?
are you talking about a different system?
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 10, 2003 3:33 pm

Yes msbee that is the one system south of Puerto Rico.
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#9 Postby msbee » Mon Nov 10, 2003 3:36 pm

and the models forecast that to move Northeast?
I thought it was heading West
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 10, 2003 3:40 pm

Well it is moving very slowly westnorthwest to northwest but let's wait to see what direction it takes in the next couple of days and watch it to see if it not repeats a LENNY type direction and in november the trade wind flow is weak so let's see what happens.
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#11 Postby caribepr » Mon Nov 10, 2003 5:31 pm

With all the rain and the date...I was out in the garden watching it drown, thinking of Lenny today...lived on St. Thomas then and would really NOT care for a repeat.
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