Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#741 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:13 am

wxman57 wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:Please, please let the 0z GFS be right for once. What a pattern shift noted at the 10-day mark if so.


I'm absolutely positive that the GFS will be right about a pattern change beyond 10 days this time.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg


Lol, I don’t think Santa visits internet trolls! :lol:
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Re: RE: Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#742 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 am

Texas Snowman wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:Please, please let the 0z GFS be right for once. What a pattern shift noted at the 10-day mark if so.


I'm absolutely positive that the GFS will be right about a pattern change beyond 10 days this time.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg


Lol, I don’t think Santa visits internet trolls!
He needs coal in his stocking and ALOT of it for teasing us!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#743 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:24 am

The CPC forecast is the worst I've ever seen for the next 1-2 weeks. :grr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#744 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Dec 18, 2021 11:59 am

@JeffLindner1 — Radar indicated rotation in SW San Jacinto County. Tornado warning in effect until 1115am #houwx #txwx
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#745 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:20 pm

Chilly day today puts me in a mood for an optimistic post.

Do not lose hope my friends despite the coming torchmas. We torch but the broader pattern has changed. As prior mention the MJO forecast thus far have verified and the overall Cryosphere is beginning to set up the high latitude blocking (it hasn't happened yet but on the verge.) As a result the AO forecast is on the road to tank.

Image

So for the first time this young meteorological winter the AO is now negative. That means the Arctic and Polar regions is ripe to disperse the bottled cold air eventually. We have plenty of it to disperse.

Needless it has happened before, can it happen again? Is the Arctic regions ready to go inside out and dislodge itself?


Some posts mid to late Jan 2021. It was desolate with the same ridge/trough configuration we are in now.

DonWrk wrote:Go from exciting times to doom and gloom just like that :x Gotta love it.


This isn't getting anyone hyped lol

Image


As the cold built in Canada eventually the -PNA relaxed and the -NAO/AO came. It was then unloaded...can we do it again but earlier?

Some posted maps from that period.
Image
Image


Maybe?...Wxman57's miscalculation is that the more he fortifies his seemingly impenetrable wall...the more it is pressured up behind it just waiting...for now...

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#746 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:24 pm

Wxman57 is going to fortify the wall, and it appears his wall is working so far.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#747 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:33 pm

1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!? :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#748 Postby harp » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!? :eek:

I think it’s finally going to happen…. We will be out of this miserable heat wave…
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#749 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:38 pm

Iceresistance wrote:1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!? :eek:


Because it's 2 weeks out :lol:.

All seriousness I still feel decently good about the changes though that was portrayed over a week ago. We just cleaned through the 500mb torch set up, and we're breaking it down with a couple of cool offs. One more torch pump from west coast trough then comes the mature blocking.

The birds are flurrying.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#750 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:39 pm

harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!? :eek:

I think it’s finally going to happen…. We will be out of this miserable heat wave…


Also, did someone turn on the Hose? :lol:

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

Heat Miser needs to run if this verifies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#751 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:42 pm

And not to negate the elephant in the room. Big -AO's during La Ninas have a tendency for massive cold dumps in the NHEM. The question always is where is the cold located when it dumps..
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#752 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:1070 MB high over Canada at the Beginning of January at the end of the 12z GFS model, how is that even possible!? :eek:

I think it’s finally going to happen…. We will be out of this miserable heat wave…


Also, did someone turn on the Hose? :lol:

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

Heat Miser needs to run if this verifies.


Canada supermodel: YES!

T-Polar Vortex vacates it's residency from 60N. Forced out by warm ridges.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#753 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:26 pm

12z GEFS trending colder in the long range compared to 6z
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#754 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:41 pm

Yall dont play with my feelings now..

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#755 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:46 pm

We totally believe it. It will happen 300+ hours out.

GEFS

Image
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Re: RE: Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#756 Postby kingwood_tx1999 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:We totally believe it. It will happen 300+ hours out.

GEFS

Image
I refuse to believe it at 300 hrs out..

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#757 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:02 pm

That wall better hold up. Hopefully the models are now getting into mirror view and picking up the AO shift after the Pacific shift.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#758 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:28 pm

Ntxw, the voice of reason and hope.

As compared to you know who.

:D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#759 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:That wall better hold up. Hopefully the models are now getting into mirror view and picking up the AO shift after the Pacific shift.

https://i.imgur.com/ajgxACo.png

https://i.imgur.com/eL0l8oJ.png



The Euro actually looks pretty decent.

So the Euro, GFS, and CMC all look decent right now?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#760 Postby orangeblood » Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:58 pm

The cold is coming…..The rubber band that is Mother Nature will make sure it does, and this rubber band is being pulled way too far to the warm side… it’s about to snap back and snap back hard!! January could be really entertaining for winter weather lovers!!
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