2022 EPAC Season
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
The performers:
Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Probably a repeat of 2021 considering the cold PDO and ENSO likely warming through June and reversing back to cool in the latter months of hurricane season. If we do get an El Nino I would expect no more than a 2009-esque season.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Probably a repeat of 2021 considering the cold PDO and ENSO likely warming through June and reversing back to cool in the latter months of hurricane season. If we do get an El Nino I would expect no more than a 2009-esque season.
Will reverse by ASO?
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
All I will say for now is if you want an active season that exceeds last year (which got 94 ACE) without an El Niño:
-Hope for +PNA/TNH and -NPO(?) to warm up the Pacific horseshoe and cool off the waters near the Aleutians. This could reverse the -PDO, and in extreme circumstances set up a prolonged period of +PDO (2014-18 is the poster child of this).
-Hope for a -AMO return. This probably won’t happen for another decade or so but this would result in rising motion over Central America especially in non-El Niño years.
If neither happens, 100 ACE is probably the ceiling unless there’s a Niño which are not most years. If there is a first year La Niña and we remain +AMO/-PDO, ACE probably falls in the 50-80 range. Otherwise, probably 100 ACE is the ceiling.
-Hope for +PNA/TNH and -NPO(?) to warm up the Pacific horseshoe and cool off the waters near the Aleutians. This could reverse the -PDO, and in extreme circumstances set up a prolonged period of +PDO (2014-18 is the poster child of this).
-Hope for a -AMO return. This probably won’t happen for another decade or so but this would result in rising motion over Central America especially in non-El Niño years.
If neither happens, 100 ACE is probably the ceiling unless there’s a Niño which are not most years. If there is a first year La Niña and we remain +AMO/-PDO, ACE probably falls in the 50-80 range. Otherwise, probably 100 ACE is the ceiling.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/mo ... mmsst.data
December PMM:
A step in the right direction but need PMM to consistently be in the 3-4 range to have the sort of effect it’s had in 2015, 2018, or 1978. For now, doubtful it will make or break the season.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
December 2021 PDO from NCDC is -2.72 which is as I alluded to earlier is at record low. But the ridging off the West Coast is forecast to persist (-N/EPO I believe) for another two weeks or so so room exists to make a dent in that department.
A downwelling sub-surface CCKW has formed near the dateline, and there have been some signs of additional westerlies in the area by late January fueled by CCKW/MJO. This is enough to open the El Niño door somewhat but the La Niña needs to fade fast, and any El Niño given the cold SHEM Pacific is likely to be fairly west based. However, a third year La Niña is fairly unlikely at this point, especially in light of the recent volcanic eruption in Tonga.
In summary, I’d feel a lot more confident in a fairly robust season if the PDO was somewhat positive. It’s early but the floor is probably a 2000 or 2001 and median scenario is probably something resembling 2012. Even if no El Niño develops (which is reasonably likely though I think one will at least somewhat try), the +PMM will probably raise the floor a little bit if it persists, making a season <90 ACE unlikely.
December PMM:
2021 12 2.54 2.26
A step in the right direction but need PMM to consistently be in the 3-4 range to have the sort of effect it’s had in 2015, 2018, or 1978. For now, doubtful it will make or break the season.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
December 2021 PDO from NCDC is -2.72 which is as I alluded to earlier is at record low. But the ridging off the West Coast is forecast to persist (-N/EPO I believe) for another two weeks or so so room exists to make a dent in that department.
A downwelling sub-surface CCKW has formed near the dateline, and there have been some signs of additional westerlies in the area by late January fueled by CCKW/MJO. This is enough to open the El Niño door somewhat but the La Niña needs to fade fast, and any El Niño given the cold SHEM Pacific is likely to be fairly west based. However, a third year La Niña is fairly unlikely at this point, especially in light of the recent volcanic eruption in Tonga.
In summary, I’d feel a lot more confident in a fairly robust season if the PDO was somewhat positive. It’s early but the floor is probably a 2000 or 2001 and median scenario is probably something resembling 2012. Even if no El Niño develops (which is reasonably likely though I think one will at least somewhat try), the +PMM will probably raise the floor a little bit if it persists, making a season <90 ACE unlikely.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
There is currently a disturbance in the East Pacific that has the possibility of producing a tropical storm. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all show it happening within the next few days.
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- Kingarabian
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- Hurricanehink
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Does anyone have one of those phase diagram models for this potential storm?
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Looks like a subtropical Depression.
A vigorous mid-level low is
centered near 23N138W, with a mid to upper trough with base
reaching from the low to near 14N. Divergence to the east of the
mid to upper trough base continues to support numerous moderate
convection from 21N to 26N between 135W and 137W, and from 18N to
21N between 129W and 133W. The upper pattern is supporting a
complex low with a mean center near 21N135W, with an estimated
pressure around 1008 mb. Near gale to gale-force NE to E winds
are within 255 nm NE quadrant of the low center with seas in the
11 to 14 ft range. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-
force late tonight/early Fri morning when the low is forecast to
be near 24N138W. The low pressure will move west of 140W Fri
morning, however associated winds and seas will diminish from
15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat.
centered near 23N138W, with a mid to upper trough with base
reaching from the low to near 14N. Divergence to the east of the
mid to upper trough base continues to support numerous moderate
convection from 21N to 26N between 135W and 137W, and from 18N to
21N between 129W and 133W. The upper pattern is supporting a
complex low with a mean center near 21N135W, with an estimated
pressure around 1008 mb. Near gale to gale-force NE to E winds
are within 255 nm NE quadrant of the low center with seas in the
11 to 14 ft range. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-
force late tonight/early Fri morning when the low is forecast to
be near 24N138W. The low pressure will move west of 140W Fri
morning, however associated winds and seas will diminish from
15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat.
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- Hurricanehink
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Very well-defined circulation and convection! Too bad we probably won't be able to sing "Agatha All Along" for this one.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/mo ... mmsst.data
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt
January PMM is a solid +4.46. 6th highest value on record, behind 1986, 1980, 1959, 2018, and 2015. 1980 and 1986 were central based +ENSO years and rest were in a hyperactive warm Pacific period. If the solid +PMM can last through the spring, that’d be an encouraging sign in all likelihood, though such pattern could also favor a Modoki based Nino.
Based on 15 day SST trend, mostly a wash, and if anything a trend towards colder SST’s over the EPAC genesis region. So I’m not sure if it’ll last.
2022 4.460 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt
2022 1 4.46 3.80
January PMM is a solid +4.46. 6th highest value on record, behind 1986, 1980, 1959, 2018, and 2015. 1980 and 1986 were central based +ENSO years and rest were in a hyperactive warm Pacific period. If the solid +PMM can last through the spring, that’d be an encouraging sign in all likelihood, though such pattern could also favor a Modoki based Nino.
Based on 15 day SST trend, mostly a wash, and if anything a trend towards colder SST’s over the EPAC genesis region. So I’m not sure if it’ll last.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/monthly/PMM/pmmsst.data2022 4.460 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt2022 1 4.46 3.80
January PMM is a solid +4.46. 6th highest value on record, behind 1986, 1980, 1959, 2018, and 2015. 1980 and 1986 were central based +ENSO years and rest were in a hyperactive warm Pacific period. If the solid +PMM can last through the spring, that’d be an encouraging sign in all likelihood, though such pattern could also favor a Modoki based Nino.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/939642894778785802/IMG_8129.png
Based on 15 day SST trend, mostly a wash, and if anything a trend towards colder SST’s over the EPAC genesis region. So I’m not sure if it’ll last.
Well, a Modoki El Nino favors the Atlantic Basin for more Tropical activity than the EPAC.
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- NotSparta
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Iceresistance wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/monthly/PMM/pmmsst.data2022 4.460 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt2022 1 4.46 3.80
January PMM is a solid +4.46. 6th highest value on record, behind 1986, 1980, 1959, 2018, and 2015. 1980 and 1986 were central based +ENSO years and rest were in a hyperactive warm Pacific period. If the solid +PMM can last through the spring, that’d be an encouraging sign in all likelihood, though such pattern could also favor a Modoki based Nino.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/939642894778785802/IMG_8129.png
Based on 15 day SST trend, mostly a wash, and if anything a trend towards colder SST’s over the EPAC genesis region. So I’m not sure if it’ll last.
Well, a Modoki El Nino favors the Atlantic Basin for more Tropical activity than the EPAC.
Need an extreme Modoki for that. 2018-style event seems more likely where the EPAC still is enhanced
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Iceresistance wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/monthly/PMM/pmmsst.data2022 4.460 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt2022 1 4.46 3.80
January PMM is a solid +4.46. 6th highest value on record, behind 1986, 1980, 1959, 2018, and 2015. 1980 and 1986 were central based +ENSO years and rest were in a hyperactive warm Pacific period. If the solid +PMM can last through the spring, that’d be an encouraging sign in all likelihood, though such pattern could also favor a Modoki based Nino.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/939642894778785802/IMG_8129.png
Based on 15 day SST trend, mostly a wash, and if anything a trend towards colder SST’s over the EPAC genesis region. So I’m not sure if it’ll last.
Well, a Modoki El Nino favors the Atlantic Basin for more Tropical activity than the EPAC.
Not quite unless an explicit cold tongue develops over the equatorial far Eastern Pacific, which happened in 2004 and 2019 and can’t be ruled out here. More likely scenario here is higher activity west of 125W but lower activity east of 125W, fueled by +PMM and a possible weak central based Nino.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
NotSparta wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/monthly/PMM/pmmsst.data2022 4.460 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000 -99.000
https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MMode ... me/PMM.txt2022 1 4.46 3.80
January PMM is a solid +4.46. 6th highest value on record, behind 1986, 1980, 1959, 2018, and 2015. 1980 and 1986 were central based +ENSO years and rest were in a hyperactive warm Pacific period. If the solid +PMM can last through the spring, that’d be an encouraging sign in all likelihood, though such pattern could also favor a Modoki based Nino.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/939642894778785802/IMG_8129.png
Based on 15 day SST trend, mostly a wash, and if anything a trend towards colder SST’s over the EPAC genesis region. So I’m not sure if it’ll last.
Well, a Modoki El Nino favors the Atlantic Basin for more Tropical activity than the EPAC.
Need an extreme Modoki for that. 2018-style event seems more likely where the EPAC still is enhanced
Yup like 2004 where Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 were very negative.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Shame this +PMM is probably going to be wasted due to a -PDO and a cold SEPAC.
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