Texas Winter 2021-2022

[cheezyWXguy]

I was a little surprised too. GEFS/EPS on average you'd give 50/50 based on the number of members showing snowfall for DFW. The upper end has some doozies. 1 in 2 is a pretty probability given the range. But shows perhaps they are weighing more heavily on the Euro OP. Once that switches it should change.

I expect them to be even more conservative than usual for the next couple days, even if trends continue, due to last years storm and the hype and weariness that surrounds it among the public. I’ve had family friends ask me in advance of some of our normal nightly freezes this year if they needed to worry about power or getting supplies. With last year’s storm still so fresh in everyone’s mind, I imagine the nws does not want to talk this up until it’s a sure thing

The problem with this approach is relying too much on ERCOT to correct their mistakes from last year , do you have faith in that ? I sure don’t. IMO, best to get the word out now so most can prepare way ahead of time individually instead of relying on ERCOT to adequately supply them with electricity/heat. The “probability” basis FW NWS office is using for a winter storm doesn’t make a lot of sense….we’re looking at the same output they are and it’s greater than 20% and arguably quite significantly

Haha, I haven’t had faith in ERCOT since 2011 when they used rolling blackouts to keep the Super Bowl afloat (prior to that I was just a teenager who never paid attention). And I agree, I think more highlighting of the potential range of scenarios is warranted, I’m just expecting them to hold back for a while longer and providing the reason why I think so.

[bubba hotep]

I just love seeing this board light up ! Cant wait to go through another week like this again. I should shut up before I jinx anything

The old weenie saying is, "Models lock in early on the big ones!" so maybe we will get some consensus this weekend and then it will just be tracking small variations. However, we will probably see at least one or two waves of melting across this board lol

[Cerlin]

Honestly, this is why I like La Nina’s a little more for winter weather (not counting the droughts). Too often during El Niño’s, it seems to just be “oh we have the moisture but it’s going to stay 36”, whereas in these La Nina’s, we’re seeing plenty of cold for each system—just a question if it’s dry cold or if there’s a little moisture to play with. And, it never takes much moisture—just enough to saturate the column!

[Ntxw]

Honestly, this is why I like La Nina’s a little more for winter weather (not counting the droughts). Too often during El Niño’s, it seems to just be “oh we have the moisture but it’s going to stay 36”, whereas in these La Nina’s, we’re seeing plenty of cold for each system—just a question if it’s dry cold or if there’s a little moisture to play with. And, it never takes much moisture—just enough to saturate the column!

In a strange quirk though, even though background Nina forcings were there, this winter has behaved a lot like an El Nino. In the deep tropics the key to any winter is to get forcing to stabilize over the international dateline. Historically speaking, that is most likely during moderate El Ninos and East-Based La Ninas. The past 30 days has behaved much like a moderate Nino, and even though we're in COD/MJO rmm it's technically P8.

The dryness can be pointed at the very strong -PDO. Which has a strong correlation for long term droughts/wet periods.

[Lagreeneyes03]

How much value is there in doing some "just in case" emergency prep, ie buying some propane heaters and a 5000 w inverter to hook up to the SUV? All are 30 day returnable on Amazon haha

[Quixotic]

Typically, all eyes are on the Pacific, but the next 48 hrs over the NATL are also critical to what happens next week across Texas. We have an explosive storm moving off the NE US, and the convection associated with that will pump latent heat. That will influence the downstream ridge and, if it is more amped up, then that will help buckle the flow. Global models handle this process pretty poorly since it is convectively driven. However, you can see the GFS trying to adjust to it with higher heights pushing northward towards Green Land. This will have upstream influences that could slow the incoming longwave trough and allow it to dig more into the SW.

https://i.ibb.co/SwYJ9JG/gfs-z500a-Norm-nhem-fh42-trend.gif

Ideally, wouldn’t we want more ridging on the EC? I mean, I get the NAO teleconnection, but some of our most persistent patterns had ridges on both coasts.

Quixotic - By the way, I was wondering when you were going to show up.

You know me. If I’m around, there’s something worth tracking or it’s imminent.

[Golf7270]

I believe this cold pattern will continue for rest of February. My reasoning is strong ne Pacific ridge currently and Hudson's bay pv. Also, the niña is completely east based which should feed the stability of the ridge over Alaska. Not going to be like feb 2021, but still cold next week. We had a major SSW event last February which aided the intense cold

[Ralph's Weather]

I believe this cold pattern will continue for rest of February. My reasoning is strong ne Pacific ridge currently and Hudson's bay pv. Also, the niña is completely east based which should feed the stability of the ridge over Alaska. Not going to be like feb 2021, but still cold next week. We had a major SSW event last February which aided the intense cold

I agree, Feb looks to be cold and stormy. All the pieces are locking in.

[Ralph's Weather]

I just love seeing this board light up ! Cant wait to go through another week like this again. I should shut up before I jinx anything

The old weenie saying is, "Models lock in early on the big ones!" so maybe we will get some consensus this weekend and then it will just be tracking small variations. However, we will probably see at least one or two waves of melting across this board lol

I am waiting on the temporary model flip tomorrow or Monday that keeps things interesting, haha. Even last year had a few runs in the medium range that made us all pause. Gotta trust pattern recognition and this one appears to be solid.

[Haris]

I just love seeing this board light up ! Cant wait to go through another week like this again. I should shut up before I jinx anything

The old weenie saying is, "Models lock in early on the big ones!" so maybe we will get some consensus this weekend and then it will just be tracking small variations. However, we will probably see at least one or two waves of melting across this board lol

Yep. Jan 2021. The storm that had members from both Central and North texas fall off the cliff at least once for different reasons. I firmly remember the last minute S trend

[cheezyWXguy]

0z NAM shows the system pretty strong off the west coast at 84 hours. Looks good.

[Brent]

I just love seeing this board light up ! Cant wait to go through another week like this again. I should shut up before I jinx anything

The old weenie saying is, "Models lock in early on the big ones!" so maybe we will get some consensus this weekend and then it will just be tracking small variations. However, we will probably see at least one or two waves of melting across this board lol

I am waiting on the temporary model flip tomorrow or Monday that keeps things interesting, haha. Even last year had a few runs in the medium range that made us all pause. Gotta trust pattern recognition and this one appears to be solid.

Ha I can still remember the Euro in February Dallas was supposed to be like in the 40s and it was already below freezing

[Cerlin]

Hyped for the NAM runs over the next couple days! If it shows something we’re really in business

[Brent]

Hyped for the NAM runs over the next couple days! If it shows something we’re really in business

Oh I can't wait to get NAM'ed it's gonna happen at least once

[Ntxw]

0z ICON is coming in a little faster but it's very amped negative tilt coming out. More snow appearing in West Texas and icing in North Texas. I think it's starting the trend of more snow depiction.

[Haris]

0z ICON is coming in a little faster but it's very amped negative tilt coming out. More snow appearing in West Texas and icing in North Texas. I think it's starting the trend of more snow depiction.

Got much colder too. Teens immediately

[Ntxw]

0z ICON is coming in a little faster but it's very amped negative tilt coming out. More snow appearing in West Texas and icing in North Texas. I think it's starting the trend of more snow depiction.

Got much colder too. Teens immediately

Yeah mid afternoon in the teens precip falling. Even for the ICON the temp trends is get colder.

[dhweather]

In 5184 hours, the 0Z GFS has A CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!!

[Ntxw]

0z ICON is coming in a little faster but it's very amped negative tilt coming out. More snow appearing in West Texas and icing in North Texas. I think it's starting the trend of more snow depiction.

Got much colder too. Teens immediately

Yeah mid afternoon in the teens precip falling. Even for the ICON the temp trends is get colder.

[Texas Snow]

0z ICON is coming in a little faster but it's very amped negative tilt coming out. More snow appearing in West Texas and icing in North Texas. I think it's starting the trend of more snow depiction.

Cold trend is good. Negative tilt is nice. Don’t like how much faster it is however. GFS is about to start so not long to wait.