Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Ralph's Weather]

After this storm, the GEFS is picking up a growing signal for the upper low Sat to maybe have enough moisture for light snow. It does not take much moisture for snow in an air mass like what will be in place.

[Brent]

The Euro looks to have an inch or two of snow in DFW 7 inches here

[cheezyWXguy]

The 0z euro is a solid southward shift over its 12z run for north Texas. Freezing line progresses faster, storm lasts longer, and transitions to snow by 11am. I am hoping that weather.us has trouble depicting the difference between freezing rain and sleet, because that amount of ice would be serious.

[Ntxw]

The Euro looks to have an inch or two of snow in DFW 7 inches here

Got to wait for the hourly since the free stuff is 6 hours apart. Does look like it does what the 18z euro did.

[Ntxw]

The 0z euro is a solid southward shift over its 12z run for north Texas. Freezing line progresses faster, storm lasts longer, and transitions to snow by 11am. I am hoping that weather.us has trouble depicting the difference between freezing rain and sleet, because that amount of ice would be serious.

That's freezing rain it has overnight sometime after midnight is transition until mid morning before snow. Hourly does show that and then snow from late morning in early afternoon.

[Lagreeneyes03]

We have a retired NWS met in our neighborhood, and he posted this on NextDoor this evening-- He's all in on the GFS and more snow

" I retired from the National Weather Service, over 10 years ago so now Unfortunately, I no longer have the up-to-date skills and experience I had back then, so take the following with a grain of salt.

Based on the GFS model, the most often used upper air forecast model, I will not be surprised if we see two to four inches of snow (possibly overlaying ice) on Thursday. I think the heaviest snow will be along a line from Denison to Gainesville to Decatur to Weatherford to Brownwood and southwestward by mid-afternoon. This post is my informed opinion and should not be depended upon when making important decisions. Warnings and Forecasts are the responsibility of the National Weather Service

As the cold air plunges southward along the lee of the Rockies, the lowest temperatures will be west of DFW at any given time due to a wave that will develop on the front across north Texas. The wave, tied to a disturbance aloft, will produce upward motion and thus precipitation.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

CMC yeah that says 12 over me

I’ve got a son at Mizzou…he’s really going to cash in on this one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Tammie]

Is that our cold front up in Nebraska and Montana?

[HockeyTx82]

FWD NWS is showing just an inch to two inches for the area worst case for sleet and snow.

What the heck are all these multi inch totals maps I've seen on here about?

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

In other news my digital rain bucket recorded .02" of rain the other day in the the past 29 days. THE FARM IS SAVED!!!!!

[orangeblood]

FWD NWS is showing just an inch to two inches for the area worst case.

What the heck are all these multi inch totals maps I've seen on here about?

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

They probably should update that graphic, doesn’t look correct looking over the latest guidance…getting more concerned by the hour that this will reach Major Ice Storm criteria for DFW, frz transition looks sooner than expected plus the onset of heaviest QPF is lagging. Looking like very little rain is going to fall now, making majority of the 1” plus QPF amounts potentially frozen

Not looking good ATM

[wxman57]

So are you signaling the "All Clear" for all of Harris County?

We'll be fine down here. Nothing suggests otherwise. Maybe a hard freeze up there in Tomball, but nothing like last February.

I know you're not leaving for this 'event' and only surrounding yourself with space heaters while your central air is up to the max but...

Doesn't this look pleasing?

https://i.imgur.com/FmdHvXG.png

It's very tempting, but I can ride out this brief cold spell here under my electric blanket.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is going to be a catch up type of event for the NWS FTW, just like the 2010 February snow event where they were constantly behind to totals until it was nearly over.

Remember the GFS is the most extreme model with the precip amounts and type.

[wxman57]

So are you signaling the "All Clear" for all of Harris County?

Not too much to worry about in most of Harris County. There's a chance of a little sleet or freezing rain across the northwest tip of the county, but nothing to cause any power issues. Possibly an issue for some bridges at most.

[cstrunk]

Models insist that Longview will stay just rain until 3-6 pm Thursday. Most of the precip will have moved through by then. Icy conditions are still possible as the cold air filters in, but heavy ice accumulations are not likely unless something changes.

[wxman57]

FWD NWS is showing just an inch to two inches for the area worst case for sleet and snow.

What the heck are all these multi inch totals maps I've seen on here about?

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

In other news my digital rain bucket recorded .02" of rain the other day in the the past 29 days. THE FARM IS SAVED!!!!!

Those multi-inch maps, like the ones posted from Tropical Tidbits, do not differentiate between sleet and snow. A general conversion from liquid precip (or sleet) would be about 10 to 1, meaning an inch of sleet would equate to about an inch of liquid precipitation and about 10 inches of snow. Much of the precip in your area will fall as rain, changing to freezing rain and then to sleet. After the sleet ends, you'll likely see a period of snow. How much of each is the big question. For now, it looks like mostly freezing rain and sleet. GFS is forecasting upwards of 1.5 inches of freezing rain and sleet up there, topped with 1/4 inch of snow.

[wxman57]

Here are the rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow maps from the 06Z GFS. Very similar to previous runs. Looks like all rain for southeast Texas.

http://wxman57.com/images/TXRN2.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXZR2.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXIP2.png
http://wxman57.com/images/TXSN2.png

[Portastorm]

Didn’t see it mentioned earlier … Winter Storm Watch in effect here in the Austin area for Thursday. NWS says up to 1/4” ice accumulation possible. I’ve seen 0.08” paralyze this town when it froze all the bridges and overpasses.

[HockeyTx82]

FWD NWS is showing just an inch to two inches for the area worst case for sleet and snow.

What the heck are all these multi inch totals maps I've seen on here about?

https://www.weather.gov/fwd/

In other news my digital rain bucket recorded .02" of rain the other day in the the past 29 days. THE FARM IS SAVED!!!!!

Those multi-inch maps, like the ones posted from Tropical Tidbits, do not differentiate between sleet and snow. A general conversion from liquid precip (or sleet) would be about 10 to 1, meaning an inch of sleet would equate to about an inch of liquid precipitation and about 10 inches of snow. Much of the precip in your area will fall as rain, changing to freezing rain and then to sleet. After the sleet ends, you'll likely see a period of snow. How much of each is the big question. For now, it looks like mostly freezing rain and sleet. GFS is forecasting upwards of 1.5 inches of freezing rain and sleet up there, topped with 1/4 inch of snow.

Ah thank you. If there was a dislike button I would push it. Nothing good comes from that much ice..........

I was just telling my wife earlier how you are pretty much all in with the event unfolding so we need to take it as serious as we can. Always appreciate your opinions and expertise over the years I've been here, rather the decade plus I've been here.

[bubba hotep]

Alright. Now the real fun begins. The emotional highs and lows. The freak outs when you get 6” and the guy down the road got 7.

Today was a good day to step away, storm is coming but the hi-res output was still at the fringes of usability. Tomorrow is when the fun starts lol

Someone has to post it!


However, as wxman57 posted above its a lot more complicated than just posting clown maps when it comes to forecasting winter wx. However, however, clown maps have been known to come true lol

[wxman57]

Didn’t see it mentioned earlier … Winter Storm Watch in effect here in the Austin area for Thursday. NWS says up to 1/4” ice accumulation possible. I’ve seen 0.08” paralyze this town when it froze all the bridges and overpasses.

Yeah, it looks like freezing rain and sleet for your area. Couldn't rule out a snowflake as precip ends, but nothing significant there. Plan on travel issues at least Thursday and Friday, possibly lingering through the weekend. Good thing Texans know how to drive on ice.

Plotted overnight model forecasts for here in Houston. Nothing too significant temperature-wise. All rain for precip. This airmass is nothing like last February. Looking up into Alberta and British Columbia, there really isn't a lot of very cold air at present. Temperatures remain above zero in Montana and North Dakota. The issue is precip in the sub-freezing air.