Texas Winter 2021-2022

[goCoogs]

Saw this morning on TV two different forecasts for Katy. One said it will get down to 23, the other 29. Anybody know which is correct? 6 degrees makes a difference in preparations.

[Iceresistance]

Radar is picking up Freezing Rain just west of Sweetwater, TX & Abilene, TX

[dhweather]

It's looking like there's about a 14-18 degree drop a couple of hours after FROPA.

at 12Z:

Hugo, OK - 55
Paris, TX - 57
McKinney, TX - 57
Rockwall, TX - 57

at 13Z:

Hugo, OK - 41
Paris, TX - 55
McKinney, TX - 54
Rockwall, TX - 57

at 14Z:

Hugo, OK - 37 (-18 in two hours)
Paris, TX - 48 (-9 in two hours)
McKinney, TX - 48 (-9 in two hours)
Rockwall, TX - 54 (-3 in two hours)

at 15Z:

Hugo,OK - 37 (-4 in two hours)
Paris, TX - 43 (-12 in two hours)
McKinney, TX - 45 (-9 in two hours)
Rockwall, TX - 48 (-9 in two hours)

[EnnisTx]

Saw this morning on TV two different forecasts for Katy. One said it will get down to 23, the other 29. Anybody know which is correct? 6 degrees makes a difference in preparations.

23 is a hard freeze and 29 is close to a hard freeze. Just prepare as you would for any hard freeze.

[ElectricStorm]

Winter storm warning here now says up to 7 inches possible in some areas. That's the most they've said so far, and I think it's definitely possible.

[Ntxw]

Minus the initial fropa drop the steady drop rate is about ~2-3 degs per hour looking upstream. Pretty good CAA with stacked height rises.

[orangeblood]

With new real time & model data, FW NWS office playing catch up.... appears they just raised FRZ RN potential amounts up to 1/2" across entire Metroplex

[Ntxw]

With new real time & model data, FW NWS office playing catch up.... appears they just raised FRZ RN potential amounts up to 1/2" across entire Metroplex

Earlier freeze line means more of the earlier qpf is frozen.

[TheProfessor]

Crazy storm here. 6" officially, but I measured multiple 12-18" drifts too (and some spots only 2") these drifts are widespread too. The peak of the storm was pretty close to blizzard conditions with 40mph gusts and 1/4 mile visibilities. This is enough snow for me. I don't need anymore lol.

[Texas Snow]

With new real time & model data, FW NWS office playing catch up.... appears they just raised FRZ RN potential amounts up to 1/2" across entire Metroplex

Where are you seeing this?

[Ntxw]

Hope the cold continues to trend more.

If you take the conservative NAM that is a heck of a freezing rain event, especially the eastern counties. .75-1"+ ZR is ugly. Eastplexers would likely get the worst of it.

This would be a very bad situation.

[rwfromkansas]

It looks like the WRF-ARW2 gives me a fairly quick change from freezing rain to sleet, but definitely more freezing rain than I would like. I would like a quicker change from sleet to snow still.

[EnnisTx]

Hope the cold continues to trend more.

If you take the conservative NAM that is a heck of a freezing rain event, especially the eastern counties. .75-1"+ ZR is ugly. Eastplexers would likely get the worst of it.

This would be a very bad situation.

https://i.imgur.com/2vbOn4f.png

Don't want to see the dreaded ICE STORM WARNINGS go out.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hope the cold continues to trend more.

If you take the conservative NAM that is a heck of a freezing rain event, especially the eastern counties. .75-1"+ ZR is ugly. Eastplexers would likely get the worst of it.

This would be a very bad situation.

https://i.imgur.com/2vbOn4f.png

Agreed but I’m still of the opinion that most of that will fall as sleet in the immediate metro and northwest. The NAM has been slow to catch up surface temp depictions and it’s probably lagging aloft too. East Texas is in for a ride though.

[bubba hotep]

Freezing line approaching the Graham to Decatur line. One important note, looking up stream and temps are several degrees colder behind the freezing line than modeled. Maybe that translates to deeper cold coming in faster? Hard to tell without some balloon data.

[rwfromkansas]

Hope the cold continues to trend more.

If you take the conservative NAM that is a heck of a freezing rain event, especially the eastern counties. .75-1"+ ZR is ugly. Eastplexers would likely get the worst of it.

This would be a very bad situation.

https://i.imgur.com/2vbOn4f.png

Agreed but I’m still of the opinion that most of that will fall as sleet in the immediate metro and northwest. The NAM has been slow to catch up surface temp depictions and it’s probably lagging aloft too. East Texas is in for a ride though.

This brings up a good point. The initial surface front is definitely running ahead of schedule. But, is the deeper cold behind doing the same? If not, that would increase freezing rain potential for sure.

Edit to add: Bubba brings up the same point, but it appears we would need good balloon data to really sample the atmosphere to see if this is the case.

[Brent]

[rwfromkansas]

I missed this in the morning. They do seem to say that this would probably mean deeper cold would also come sooner:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
610 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The cold front is moving into far Western North Texas at this hour
and is outperforming guidance by coming in colder than previously
thought. Freezing rain is currently being reported as far south as
Fort Sill, OK. Expect the cold air to barrel south through the day.
The forecast was adjusted to reflect this change by moving up the
onset of winter precipitation. We now have sleet and freezing rain
starting over Montague/Young/Jack Counties as early as 10-11 AM.
The tail-end of the evening rush hour over the far NW of the
Metroplex is now likely to be impacted by winter precip late this
afternoon. The other result of the cooler temperatures is that
less ice is forecast over Western North Texas. While there will be
less ice, there will be more snow and have increased our high end
snow forecast to range between 4-6 inches. We remain confident of
a significant ice storm occurring tonight, although there may be
more sleet than we previously thought due to the cooler temps. The
remainder of the forecast discussion below still applies.

[Iceresistance]

:double:

https://i.ibb.co/YjTvr59/Screenshot-20220202-093850.png

The Reply was actually really funny because it's so true!

[TropicalTundra]

WRF-ARW2 looks to have the most accurate location of the freezing line as of 9am. Make of that what you will…

I mean it was showing 6+ inches of snow for me and ice/sleet..... It's gotta be right this time..... RIGHT????