Texas Spring 2022

[HockeyTx82]

Not a good signal at all.... hopefully this turns out to be wrong.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN2VxHLWUAI5g9P?format=jpg&name=medium

Sadly a Typical La Nina setup, unless we get a +PNA, which favors a NW Trough & SE Ridge, and will allow storm systems to blow through here.

Yup. Just like 2011, hopefully we avoid the extreme severe weather we had that year.

[cstrunk]

A nice, spring thunderstorm in Longview tonight. Nothing severe here. Rain was heavy at times but nothing crazy. 0.95" so far with a bit more to come. It's nice hearing thunder again!

[captainbarbossa19]

Not a good signal at all.... hopefully this turns out to be wrong.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN2VxHLWUAI5g9P?format=jpg&name=medium

Sadly a Typical La Nina setup, unless we get a +PNA, which favors a NW Trough & SE Ridge, and will allow storm systems to blow through here.

Yup. Just like 2011, hopefully we avoid the extreme severe weather we had that year.

I trust this outlook as much as I trusted the January and February warm forecasts that verified so well.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a pretty tame squall line so far. A decent amount of hail reports from earlier but no wind reports yet.

[cstrunk]

A nice, spring thunderstorm in Longview tonight. Nothing severe here. Rain was heavy at times but nothing crazy. 0.95" so far with a bit more to come. It's nice hearing thunder again!

I ended up with 1.39" IMBY. Much needed.

[TheProfessor]

Not a good signal at all.... hopefully this turns out to be wrong.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN2VxHLWUAI5g9P?format=jpg&name=medium

Sadly a Typical La Nina setup, unless we get a +PNA, which favors a NW Trough & SE Ridge, and will allow storm systems to blow through here.

We actually need a -PNA neutral NAO or neutral PNA +NAO setup. +PNA favors troughing on the east coast, especially when paired with a -NAO. -PNA + +NAO will result in a southeast ridge that's too strong and most of Texas will miss out on storm systems. -PNA and neutral NAO or neutral PNA and +NAO is kind of that sweet spot. -PNA is probably more favorable with the troughing on the west coast as long as the southeast ridge isn't too strong and storms miss north and west of us. It's also good at giving rain towards other areas that need it as much as us.

[South Texas Storms]

SPC with the rare Day 7 and 8 outlook areas but I agree with them. Severe threat looks to increase across much of Texas next Monday and then spread eastward into the Lower MS Valley next Tuesday. Hopefully this will be the first widespread 1+ inch rain event in a while for a large part of the state.

[Cpv17]

Next Monday is definitely looking interesting!!

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty sure that's only the second Day 8 slight risk I've seen. The other one was during the May 2019 sequence.

Anyway we need rain so badly I'm gonna need that Day 7 area to come north.

Also need to watch Thursday, currently a marginal risk but it could be a sneaky setup.

[txtwister78]

Man, the 500mb pattern looks very interesting for late in the week into early next week and even beyond potentially for severe weather. Could be an active stretch for TX/southern plains based on some of the medium range models, however I'm reluctant to go all just yet (due to the persistent dry pattern & poor modeling). Important to note (as South Texas Storms did) rare to get SPC to highlight a risk 7 days out so this could be a significant two-day outbreak for TX points east if they're already jumping on the threat now. Obviously, things can and probably will change in terms of locations/severity, but definitely something to watch over the next few days.

[Iceresistance]

Sneaky setup very possible on Thursday


(Btw, are Y'all getting the images without the (/url)?)
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/day3otlk_0730.gif

[Iceresistance]

La Nina & drought is a very bad combo, the GEFS is showing that there is still hope for a Droughtless La Nina Summer! I'm really loving this trend!



https://s7.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_fh288_trend.gif

[wxman57]

Man I hate hail. I’d rather it’d be 110 outside.

I can arrange that.

[wxman57]

Measured 0.33" of rain overnight. Heaviest rain since the half inch on February 1st. Total of 3.6" for the year.

[cheezyWXguy]

WxTwitter has unsurprisingly come alive for next week’s severe threats. Even Mike Ventrice is out posting some pretty notable maps.

[Iceresistance]

Reed Timmer is ready to rumble

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1503765225262223368

[HockeyTx82]

WxTwitter has unsurprisingly come alive for next week’s severe threats. Even Mike Ventrice is out posting some pretty notable maps.

Click bait.......

Sure I get excited around cold weather but when it comes to spring and severe weather which can damage life and property and cause death hyping things up for clicks or hits is just wrong.

Yes I get it, cold can do the same, but kids generally don't get scared around snow storms. Just yesterday my 6 yo heard Fox 4 talking about Lemon Sized hail and for the rest of the day was worried.

How did we ever manage severe storm season without Twitter Trolls.....

[Edwards Limestone]

WxTwitter has unsurprisingly come alive for next week’s severe threats. Even Mike Ventrice is out posting some pretty notable maps.

Click bait.......

Sure I get excited around cold weather but when it comes to spring and severe weather which can damage life and property and cause death hyping things up for clicks or hits is just wrong.

Yes I get it, cold can do the same, but kids generally don't get scared around snow storms. Just yesterday my 6 yo heard Fox 4 talking about Lemon Sized hail and for the rest of the day was worried.

How did we ever manage severe storm season without Twitter Trolls.....

[cheezyWXguy]

WxTwitter has unsurprisingly come alive for next week’s severe threats. Even Mike Ventrice is out posting some pretty notable maps.

Click bait.......

Sure I get excited around cold weather but when it comes to spring and severe weather which can damage life and property and cause death hyping things up for clicks or hits is just wrong.

Yes I get it, cold can do the same, but kids generally don't get scared around snow storms. Just yesterday my 6 yo heard Fox 4 talking about Lemon Sized hail and for the rest of the day was worried.

How did we ever manage severe storm season without Twitter Trolls.....

I hardly think Mike Ventrice is a “Twitter troll”. There are definitely a few trolls out there but I think the biggest problem is amateurs getting ahead of themselves on pretty setups a week out. There’s a long time left for things to change, but the potential is high enough that I think it’s talking about in circles like this. Inevitably there will be bad takes and bandwagoners, but I think we both are old enough to know that long before Twitter the same comments were being made, just relegated to smaller circles.

[captainbarbossa19]

La Nina & drought is a very bad combo, the GEFS is showing that there is still hope for a Droughtless La Nina Summer! I'm really loving this trend!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_fh288_trend.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_fh288_trend.gif

Right. We will see if this verifies. However, I do believe that the overall pattern is becoming at the minimum more active. My area received the most rainfall in over a month. This suggests that the pattern may be changing.

I continue to see comparisons to this spring and 2011. If you look back at recorded anomalies, 2011 had a much stronger La Nina ongoing during the winter. For example, Nino 4 in January 2011 was -1.2 C below normal, while in January 2022, it was -0.2 C below normal. Nino 3.4 was also much colder in winter 2011 compared to this winter. While drought is still quite possible for this spring and summer in Texas, suggesting that it will be as severe as 2011 by using ENSO as a basis is being a little extreme. I am not saying that a severe drought will not happen, but I honestly think that this year has more in common with last year.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... oi.indices