Texas Spring 2022

[Edwards Limestone]

Latest HRRR shows storms initializing mostly east of 35 (for SC Texas.) Think SA is probably going to "miss out" today. East trend strikes again.

Just my opinion, obviously not a pro...

[ElectricStorm]

Hearing some distant rumbles of thunder walking to my next class which is nice. The downside is it will probably be pouring when this class is over.

[rwfromkansas]

My DP was in the 30s last night, so it recovered very well overnight. Almost to 60 now.

I'm skeptical of tornadoes IMBY still, but not going to argue with the SPC. The parameters look good.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest HRRR shows storms initializing mostly east of 35 (for SC Texas.) Think SA is probably going to "miss out" today. East trend strikes again.

Just my opinion, obviously not a pro...

Yeah it's probably going to be close. Latest HRRR fires off a storm near downtown around 3-4pm. I'm leaning towards SA missing out this afternoon, but we'll see.

[South Texas Storms]

SPC just issued a rare "Moderate Risk" area from Austin to College Station.

[txtwister78]

Moderate risk added by SPC...includes Austin. Enhanced nudged further west into SA. SPC going all in with HRRR.

[Iceresistance]

Just heard Thunder outside.

Also, it appears that the News 9 Next Gen live radar tower got struck by Lightning, there's not active radar visibility.

[HockeyTx82]

SPC just issued a rare "Moderate Risk" area from Austin to College Station.

What's your thoughts for DFW? Just from the feel test I don't think Denton area will get that bad. It's so cool and rainy out now.

[ElectricStorm]

Overall not surprised they upgraded to moderate. I thought there was a chance they would wait until 20z but it's going to be a very dangerous day out there. Stay safe everyone.

[Ntxw]

It's messy out there with lots of hanging cloud cover. Would need to see some clearing in the next few hours to raise the prospects, better odds of this happening further south and especially east.

Do expect a line of thunderstorms/activity with the dry line later. The dynamics are definitely there but the preconditioning hasn't been that great. The window is small for the severe outbreak.

[Haris]

The biggest bust of the century or a coup by SPC.

Holy crap though

[Ntxw]

The biggest bust of the century or a coup by SPC.

Holy crap though

Moderate for hail and wind (45%) as the biggest odds. 15% tornado just east of Waco and Austin around CLL.

[rwfromkansas]

My temp and dewpoint is still rising, but I would like to see the temp go faster/higher for severe. If we get more storms coming through with heavier rain, that will be the kiss of death.

Apparently, a balloon is going up at 18z.

[cheezyWXguy]

It's messy out there with lots of hanging cloud cover. Would need to see some clearing in the next few hours to raise the prospects, better odds of this happening further south and especially east.

Do expect a line of thunderstorms/activity with the dry line later. The dynamics are definitely there but the preconditioning hasn't been that great. The window is small for the severe outbreak.

This isn't really one of those classic spring high CAPE setups though where warm temps are needed. In fact the SPC actually mentions that the cloud cover is helping to expedite warm air advection to the north:

At midday, a closed upper trough continues to pivot eastward,
centered over southern New Mexico and nearby far northern Mexico,
with the exit region of a strong mid/upper-level jet (90+ kt at 500
mb) beginning to overspread central/east Texas. Cloud cover remains
rather persistent at midday within the warm sector, but this
sheltering/inhibited mixing is a contributing factor to the quick
north/northwestward advection of a moist air mass (70F surface
dewpoints) that is already becoming increasing well-established
across south-central/southeast Texas.

Pretty much anything above mid 60s is going to get the job done here, and my temp has risen from 60-63 in the last 45 minutes. We should be nearing 70 by late afternoon.

[ElectricStorm]

The small 15 hatched area doesn't have near as much convection right now as the areas to the north do. Looks like SPC is pretty confident in a supercell really getting going in that spot.

[South Texas Storms]

SPC just issued a rare "Moderate Risk" area from Austin to College Station.

What's your thoughts for DFW? Just from the feel test I don't think Denton area will get that bad. It's so cool and rainy out now.

You will likely see some storms later this afternoon, and some of them could be severe. Best chance will be to your south though.

[Ntxw]

It's messy out there with lots of hanging cloud cover. Would need to see some clearing in the next few hours to raise the prospects, better odds of this happening further south and especially east.

Do expect a line of thunderstorms/activity with the dry line later. The dynamics are definitely there but the preconditioning hasn't been that great. The window is small for the severe outbreak.

This isn't really one of those classic spring high CAPE setups though where warm temps are needed. In fact the SPC actually mentions that the cloud cover is helping to expedite warm air advection to the north:

At midday, a closed upper trough continues to pivot eastward,
centered over southern New Mexico and nearby far northern Mexico,
with the exit region of a strong mid/upper-level jet (90+ kt at 500
mb) beginning to overspread central/east Texas. Cloud cover remains
rather persistent at midday within the warm sector, but this
sheltering/inhibited mixing is a contributing factor to the quick
north/northwestward advection of a moist air mass (70F surface
dewpoints) that is already becoming increasing well-established
across south-central/southeast Texas.

Pretty much anything above mid 60s is going to get the job done here, and my temp has risen from 60-63 in the last 45 minutes. We should be nearing 70 by late afternoon.

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying we won't get any severe weather. I do agree with the SPC and they're doing a pretty good job portraying the odds. I'm just noting the best conditions to be met is going to be this evening to the south and east in a secondary initiation down in C-SE Texas. We'll get warmer/more moist as the warm front drifts to the N by evening but will it be in time to meet the next wave or will we get dry slotted by then?

[txtwister78]

Clouds are beginning to break across SA.

[HockeyTx82]

Clouds are beginning to break across SA.

Crazy I'm out here walking around the UNT campus on my lunch break. If you woke me up and I had no knowledge of the weather I'd be like oh yeah it's like fall today.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Sun & blue skies are starting to peak through in Downtown SA. Not sure if this helps SA avoids today’s storms or if this causes it to occur further west, but it definitely seems like it’s the beginning of what’s about to happen. Also, all of Bexar County looks to be under a significant hail threat according to the SPC.