2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

Here's the Euro, MSLP and 10m wind. I love it.



Total precip. No snow maps, but you can infer this may be a doozy!

[Iceresistance]

New features have been added to the EPS, CMCE, & GEFS on Pivotal Weather, & a New Ensemble model has been added: EPS-WMO

The EPS got a HUGE extension, it used to stop at 240 hours, now it extends to 360 hours.

Snowfall Probabilities have been added to the EPS, GEFS, & CMCE

Mean features have also been added to these Ensembles as well, with some only accessible on Pivotal Weather Plus (Requires a Paid Subscription)

[Iceresistance]

Pivotal Weather has gotten another update, they've added the SREF model, the run times are exactly the same as College of DuPage (3z, 9z, 15z, & 21z)

[Category5Kaiju]

According to the most recent GFS run(s), the Australian and SPAC basins look to be unusually quiet throughout most of this month while the SWIO lights up.

[zzh]

[cycloneye]

Maybe Alex?

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol, looks like Alex is going to do his Alex thing once again

[AlphaToOmega]

Maybe Alex?

https://i.imgur.com/9CWKCsz.gif

240 hours out

[Kingarabian]

The MJO is limited to the areas close to the equator, but it's passage into phases 1 and 2 which is the Atlantic and Africa can aid TCG throughout the Atlantic. The CFS has the MJO passing the Atlantic ocean in 10-14 days.

[Teban54]

Ah, so here's the start of Happy Hour GFS watching for the year!

[Yellow Evan]

The MJO is limited to the areas close to the equator, but it's passage into phases 1 and 2 which is the Atlantic and Africa can aid TCG throughout the Atlantic. The CFS has the MJO passing the Atlantic ocean in 10-14 days.

Way way too early for Africa to matter in terms of TCG because the ITCZ is so quiet and southward pre-WAM. Any development is likely to come off the SE coast the usual way so MJO directly over the region is the best way the aid for genesis to that extent it can outside the tropics.

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, and CMC show a low near the Azores on Friday/Saturday that looks like it tries to become a TC. Might be worth keeping an eye on it.

The CMC shows the same precursor low as the GFS, but throws it into New England too quickly for it to develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

The most recent GFS still likes the Bermuda system idea by next week or so.

[Kingarabian]

The MJO is limited to the areas close to the equator, but it's passage into phases 1 and 2 which is the Atlantic and Africa can aid TCG throughout the Atlantic. The CFS has the MJO passing the Atlantic ocean in 10-14 days.

Way way too early for Africa to matter in terms of TCG because the ITCZ is so quiet and southward pre-WAM. Any development is likely to come off the SE coast the usual way so MJO directly over the region is the best way the aid for genesis to that extent it can outside the tropics.

Yeah probably but we could see some flared up TW's.

[Yellow Evan]

The MJO is limited to the areas close to the equator, but it's passage into phases 1 and 2 which is the Atlantic and Africa can aid TCG throughout the Atlantic. The CFS has the MJO passing the Atlantic ocean in 10-14 days.

Way way too early for Africa to matter in terms of TCG because the ITCZ is so quiet and southward pre-WAM. Any development is likely to come off the SE coast the usual way so MJO directly over the region is the best way the aid for genesis to that extent it can outside the tropics.

Yeah probably but we could see some flared up TW's.

First tropical waves don’t even start until mid-May.

[crownweather]

The most recent GFS still likes the Bermuda system idea by next week or so.

Based on my analysis, it appears that the catalyst for this possible development next week is a surface trough of low pressure now located near about 14 North, 47 West. So, models may actually be onto something here and not just printing out ghost storms.

[cycloneye]

Graphic from Crownweather services.

[Kingarabian]

Way way too early for Africa to matter in terms of TCG because the ITCZ is so quiet and southward pre-WAM. Any development is likely to come off the SE coast the usual way so MJO directly over the region is the best way the aid for genesis to that extent it can outside the tropics.

Yeah probably but we could see some flared up TW's.

First tropical waves don’t even start until mid-May.

Looks like some of the models don't pass the MJO in phases 1/2 until early May. CFS seems to be the quickest with it. I misread your other reply actually. My original post wasn't meant to imply that Africa is going to be playing a role in the increased chance of TCG by the end of April and early May. I was trying to say the MJO phase when it passes the Atlantic and Africa, is most favorable for Atlantic TCG. So depending on when the MJO actually gets moving I think the chance for an early-pre-season named system in the Atlantic is high throughout the next 3-4 weeks.

[crownweather]

Model guidance has been on and off with the possibility of western Caribbean tropical mischief sometime during the first half of May. Latest 12Z GFS is the most robust so far in showing this possibility with the CFS model showing this possibility for at least the last couple of weeks. Obviously, not a sure thing by any means, but something to keep an eye on.

[Category5Kaiju]

Model guidance has been on and off with the possibility of western Caribbean tropical mischief sometime during the first half of May. Latest 12Z GFS is the most robust so far in showing this possibility with the CFS model showing this possibility for at least the last couple of weeks. Obviously, not a sure thing by any means, but something to keep an eye on.

Interestingly, if it indeed undergoes TC genesis, it would be the first time since this pre-season streak began that the pre-season storm occurs in the Caribbean. Not counting Alberto 2018 as that became a bona fide TC in the Gulf instead