2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[aspen]

OISST refusing to update (not updated on Climate Reanalyzer either)

https://i.postimg.cc/bJZqYGW4/ssta-global.png

Now that I’ve been watching all the SSTA maps multiple times a day ever since the -NAO kicked in, I noticed that sometimes both OISST and CRW sometimes stop updating for several days. CRW is up to date, thankfully, and shows that the recent cooling trend in the MDR has halted.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF not so bullish.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194757509910528

[AutoPenalti]

ECMWF not so bullish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688

I'm just waiting for someone to say it.

[Category5Kaiju]

ECMWF not so bullish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688

I'm just waiting for someone to say it.

Me too ...

I mean, since when in the many past recent years was there ever a time when models like this showed extremely favorable conditions 100% of the time?

[Category5Kaiju]

What do ya'll think of this new Euro run? Seems like it is the first "major" unfavorable prediction to really come out for this season's potential. I think the Euro is biased here with a dry Africa, but I'd like to hear others' thoughts on this as well!

Edit: There's this as well:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522211855523012609

[SFLcane]

Euro be like...

[cycloneye]

ECMWF not so bullish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194757509910528

What a run from ECMWF can cause, a shift to bearish season but that could change next month in the model.

[tolakram]

My thoughts pre-season are always the same. Since I don't see any strong negative signs I expect an average to slightly above average season, with the potential for very active as long as we're not missing something.

[SFLcane]

New Euro Z500 sterring with a ridge-bridge potentially sending everything into Central America.

[aspen]

ECMWF not so bullish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194757509910528

Could something about a third year Nina result in a suppressed ITCZ? What have other models said about the West African Monsoon and ASW?

[skyline385]

Think this tweet is equally important

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1522205367727443968

Tons of people here and on twitter were taking the CANSIPS bullish run at face value because there is bias amongst the wx community to favor bullish outlook but the fact is we are still more than a month out and a week of MDR warming doesn't mean we are going to have a hyperactive season, especially when the MDR is literally at average SST right now.

This Euro run is also in line with the UKMET April run, both suggesting slightly above average seasons.

[aspen]

New Euro Z500 sterring with a ridge-bridge potentially sending everything into Central America.

https://i.postimg.cc/SRpcZDJK/zbb.png

Is this a similar setup to ON 2021 that prevented any Caribbean activity?

[Category5Kaiju]

New Euro Z500 sterring with a ridge-bridge potentially sending everything into Central America.

https://i.postimg.cc/SRpcZDJK/zbb.png

That sort of makes sense, especially given how that model is suppressing all convection to very low latitudes (so imagine seeing what we saw after September last year, only this time it applies to this year). Not sure how much stock I would buy into that though

[toad strangler]

ECMWF not so bullish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688

I'm just waiting for someone to say it.

well, that wraps it up. It's over. See you next May!

So I'm kinda old school and lean heavily on CSU and NOAA forecasts as the biggest indicators in my thought process over any modeling. Bullish or Bearish don't matter. So I wait patiently for NOAA to help guide my initial thoughts on the season.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has a strong +NAO.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522211855523012609

[SFLcane]

Not sure what new EURO data wxman57 was looking at but no way you get an ace near 170-190 with the most recent outlook. Looks barely slightly above average season

[cycloneye]

Middle ground.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522205367727443968

[NotSparta]

ECMWF not so bullish.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1522194006524018688

I'm just waiting for someone to say it.

well, that wraps it up. It's over. See you next May!

So I'm kinda old school and lean heavily on CSU and NOAA forecasts as the biggest indicators in my thought process over any modeling. Bullish or Bearish don't matter. So I wait patiently for NOAA to help guide my initial thoughts on the season.

Ironically, part of the reason CSU went so high is because of their modeling

[SFLcane]

I'm just waiting for someone to say it.

well, that wraps it up. It's over. See you next May!

So I'm kinda old school and lean heavily on CSU and NOAA forecasts as the biggest indicators in my thought process over any modeling. Bullish or Bearish don't matter. So I wait patiently for NOAA to help guide my initial thoughts on the season.

Ironically, part of the reason CSU went so high is because of their modeling

+1

[DorkyMcDorkface]

A little confused at the SEAS5's graphically bearish signal in tandem with an ACE prediction of 130% of average. Unless it's expecting a bunch of Caribbean Cruisers it doesn't make a lot of sense to me...