2022 EPAC Season
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
00z Euro drops it. Disturbance is there but no development.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Screams sloppy TS to me. GFS likely breaking down the monsoon trough too fast but I need to re-look at monsoon trough breakdown mechanisms.
ECMWF keeps this broad unlike the GFS. Probably more realistic.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Moderate confidence on a TC developing.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
GFS still shows a prospective system next week although not as strong before and it eventually curves it northward into cold waters. ECMWF still briefly closes it off but never fully detaches it from the ITCZ.
Trade winds are westerly off the coast of Central America in the medium to long range by both the GFS and ECMWF at 12z which could allow for barotrophic instability needed to trigger a monsoon trough breakdown around day 10 on the Pacific side. Both major models and their ensembles still favor WCarb development however.
Trade winds are westerly off the coast of Central America in the medium to long range by both the GFS and ECMWF at 12z which could allow for barotrophic instability needed to trigger a monsoon trough breakdown around day 10 on the Pacific side. Both major models and their ensembles still favor WCarb development however.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
12z GFS now keeps the potential system next week weak and has it never detaching from the ITCZ. EPS/ECMWF support for a CAG (see global models thread) has increased and warrants further monitoring.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
EC ensembles are bullish on development same as operational.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
We could get two circled areas in the EPAC in the next 5 days.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Kingarabian , GFS no longer develops nor EC.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian , GFS no longer develops nor EC.
Not surprised. Early season during La Nina, storms typically form near Mexico.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
First day of the 2022 season. Which name will be the biggie this season? I have Javier as a cat 4 but out to sea.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
I'd say whoever came up with the names for this list was a Seinfeld fan were it not for the fact that it was in use since 1980.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
EPS control has a really strong CCKW knocking on the doorstep by Memorial Day. Will affect both sides of Central America in terms of TCG but the Pacific side first.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Not that models are reliable in the medium range when it comes to intensity but there’s a strengthening model signal for 2 systems, one from 120W and one in the far eastern Pacific.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Very bullish GFS.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
Ignore the random fall in pressure at the 0z GFS but the overall pattern is consistent.
0z GFS is the second in a row to drop below 970 mbar before bringing this into Oaxaca.
0z GFS is the second in a row to drop below 970 mbar before bringing this into Oaxaca.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2022 EPAC Season
6z GFS now spinning up the westward system fully. I have my reservations given the positioning of the MJO right now which resembles the conditions in which several prospective systems have busted.
6z GFS slamming a Category 3/4 into Guerrero. I buy development here but not at that intensity.
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- Yellow Evan
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