2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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- Spacecoast
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
FSU drops NAV Genesis possibility.
Yesterday's NAV showed 23% probability of genesis just south of Yucatan.
0z ECMF only has a few members escaping into GOM. Median ensemble drops development after 96 hrs.
Yesterday's NAV showed 23% probability of genesis just south of Yucatan.
0z ECMF only has a few members escaping into GOM. Median ensemble drops development after 96 hrs.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol
That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156
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- skyline385
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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Fancy1001 wrote:skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol
That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán
It's stuck on TT, it's currently 971mb in the Gulf on weathermodels
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
skyline385 wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:skyline385 wrote:12Z going to be a nasty one, 977mb near Yucatan. GFS, you aren't helping yourself with these runs lol
That’s 997, But it does look like this one might not get slammed into the Yucatán
It's stuck on TT, it's currently 971mb in the Gulf on weathermodels
Oh ok, thanks.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156
Just on Tropical Tidbits, it's showing a cat 2/968mb landfall near Destin @ 12Z on 5/28.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue May 17, 2022 11:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- wxman57
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Fancy1001 wrote:Is it just me, or is the 12z gfs run stuck at 156
Levi's page is stuck at 156hrs. Pivotal Weather site has the big GFS modelcane hitting the FL Panhandle with a 968mb pressure on Saturday, May 28th. Not believable.
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- skyline385
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- wxman57
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Note that the GFS blasts the hurricane through a wall of strong wind shear. Completely unrealistic. Rain for Central America. The end.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Most of the ensemble members are still heading towards peninsular Florida, the operational model is on its own here
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- jasons2k
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Here is what local met Jeff Lindner had to say this morning:
Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.
Tropics:
There has been a bunch of social media posts recently showing a tropical system on the GFS model in the western Caribbean Sea and/or Gulf of Mexico for next week. The GFS is notorious for showing development this time of year in this region as tropical waves/moisture interact with a developing central American gyre. Most models do show a large area of unsettled weather extending from the western Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche from this weekend into next week. If and when any sort of defined surface circulation may develop and where remains highly uncertain due to land interaction with central America and the large sprawling nature of the central American gyre. If anything were to actually develop it would be slow.
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The Gfs really wants this to happen. I could see this scenario in October, but not May. This looks like Zeta in some aspects. Like actually a lot of aspects. Except the one big killer is the climatology. It’s May. I would like to see a hurricane come through my area. I can get behind the powerful storm with shear enhancing the outflow of the storm instead of hurting it. But I don’t see how the gfs forms it. It just spins it up off Honduras and kills the epac vorticity. The reason why this reminds me of zeta is because of the strengthening in spite of shear, as well as the front picking the system up and racing it through the southeast like a slingshot.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
After forming a TS in the Bay of Campeche yesterday, today's 12z Euro run appears to have dropped that idea. GFS continues to stand on its own unless the EPS suite shows something more significant.
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- wxman57
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
EC's weak low in the Gulf of Tehuantepec looks much more likely.
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- wxman57
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Comparison of GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, & ICON. Which one is not like the others? GFS blasts the hurricane north into a wall of shear and strengthens it.
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